IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ven/wpaper/201921.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risk Pooling, Leverage, and the Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Pietro Dindo

    (Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice)

  • Andrea Modena

    (Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice)

  • Loriana Pelizzon

    (Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice; SAFE-Goethe University Frankfurt)

Abstract

This paper investigates the interdependence between the risk-pooling activity of the financial sector and: output, consumption, risk-free rate, and Sharpe ratio in a dynamic general equilibrium model of a productive economy. Due to their exposure to idiosyncratic shocks and market segmentation, heterogeneous households/entrepreneurs (h/entrepreneurs) are willing to mitigate their risk through a financial sector. The financial sector pools risky claims issued by different firms within its assets, faces an associated intermediation cost and, via leverage, provides a risk-free asset to h/entrepreneurs. Exogenous systematic shocks change the relative size of the financial sector, and thus the equilibrium amount of pooled risk, making financial leverage state-dependent and counter-cyclical. We study how this mechanism endogenously channels amplification of consumption and mitigation of output fluctuations. In equilibrium, financial sector leverage also determines counter-cyclical Sharpe ratios and pro-cyclical risk-free interest rates. Last, we investigate the relationship between the size of the financial sector, leverage, and welfare. We show that limiting financial sector leverage determines a sub-optimal pooling of idiosyncratic risk but fosters the growth rate of the h/entrepreneurs' consumption. On the other side, when the financial sector is too large, it destroys too many resources after intermediation costs. Therefore, the h/entrepreneurs benefit the most when the financial sector is neither too small nor too big.

Suggested Citation

  • Pietro Dindo & Andrea Modena & Loriana Pelizzon, 2019. "Risk Pooling, Leverage, and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 2019: 21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  • Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2019:21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.unive.it/pag/fileadmin/user_upload/dipartimenti/economia/doc/Pubblicazioni_scientifiche/working_papers/2019/WP_DSE_dindo_modena_pelizzon_21_19.pdf
    File Function: First version, anno
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
    2. Roger B. Myerson, 2014. "Rethinking the Principles of Bank Regulation: A Review of Admati and Hellwig's The Bankers' New Clothes," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 197-210, March.
    3. Duffie, Darrell, et al, 1994. "Stationary Markov Equilibria," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 745-781, July.
    4. Basak, Suleyman & Cuoco, Domenico, 1998. "An Equilibrium Model with Restricted Stock Market Participation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 309-341.
    5. N Aaron Pancost & Roberto Robatto & Itay Goldstein, 2023. "The Effects of Capital Requirements on Good and Bad Risk-Taking," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(2), pages 733-774.
    6. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko, 2012. "Intermediary leverage cycles and financial stability," Staff Reports 567, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Yves Achdou & Jiequn Han & Jean-Michel Lasry & Pierre-Louis Lions & Benjamin Moll, 2017. "Income and Wealth Distribution in Macroeconomics: A Continuous-Time Approach," NBER Working Papers 23732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2019. "A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 1-37, October.
    9. Denizer Cevdet A. & Iyigun Murat F. & Owen Ann, 2002. "Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, October.
    10. Blum, Jurg & Hellwig, Martin, 1995. "The macroeconomic implications of capital adequacy requirements for banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 739-749, April.
    11. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000384, David K. Levine.
    12. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    13. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2013. "Intermediary Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 732-770, April.
    14. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
    15. Anton Korinek, 2011. "Systemic Risk-Taking: Amplification Effects, Externalities, and Regulatory Responses," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-13, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    16. DeAngelo, Harry & Stulz, René M., 2015. "Liquid-claim production, risk management, and bank capital structure: Why high leverage is optimal for banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 219-236.
    17. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 659-684.
    18. Beck, Thorsten & Degryse, Hans & Kneer, Christiane, 2014. "Is more finance better? Disentangling intermediation and size effects of financial systems," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 50-64.
    19. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula & Tyler Muir, 2014. "Financial Intermediaries and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2557-2596, December.
    20. Douglas W. Diamond, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414.
    21. Zhiguo He & In Gu Khang & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2010. "Balance Sheet Adjustments during the 2008 Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(1), pages 118-156, August.
    22. DellʼAriccia, Giovanni & Laeven, Luc & Marquez, Robert, 2014. "Real interest rates, leverage, and bank risk-taking," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 65-99.
    23. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2014. "Procyclical Leverage and Value-at-Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(2), pages 373-403.
    24. Anton Korinek & Alp Simsek, 2016. "Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 699-738, March.
    25. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko, 2012. "Intermediary leverage cycles and financial stability," Staff Reports 567, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Feb 2015.
    26. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    27. Gregory Phelan, 2016. "Financial Intermediation, Leverage, and Macroeconomic Instability," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 199-224, October.
    28. Paul A. Samuelson, 2011. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & Edward O Thorp & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 31, pages 465-472, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    29. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "On the scale of financial intermediaries," Staff Reports 743, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    30. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    31. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2019. "Vulnerable Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1263-1289, April.
    32. Aiyagari, S. Rao & Gertler, Mark, 1991. "Asset returns with transactions costs and uninsured individual risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 311-331, June.
    33. Angeloni, Ignazio & Faia, Ester & Lo Duca, Marco, 2015. "Monetary policy and risk taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 285-307.
    34. Douglas Gale & Andrea Gamba & Marcella Lucchetta, 2018. "Dynamic Bank Capital Regulation in Equilibrium," 2018 Meeting Papers 680, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    35. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    36. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    37. Gao, Xiaohui & Ritter, Jay R. & Zhu, Zhongyan, 2013. "Where Have All the IPOs Gone?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(6), pages 1663-1692, December.
    38. Yépez, Carlos A., 2017. "Financial intermediation, consumption dynamics, and business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 231-243.
    39. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1994. "Limited Market Participation and Volatility of Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 933-955, September.
    40. Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2003. "Collateral constraints and the amplification mechanism," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 277-292, August.
    41. Aiyagari, S. Rao & Gertler, Mark, 1991. "Asset returns with transactions costs and uninsured individual risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 311-331, June.
    42. Zhiguo He & In Gu Khang & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2010. "Balance Sheet Adjustments in the 2008 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Huggett, Mark, 1993. "The risk-free rate in heterogeneous-agent incomplete-insurance economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 953-969.
    44. Blum, Jürg M., 2008. "Why 'Basel II' may need a leverage ratio restriction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1699-1707, August.
    45. Adriano A Rampini & S Viswanathan, 2019. "Financial Intermediary Capital," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 413-455.
    46. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 379-421, February.
    47. Thomas Philippon & Ariell Reshef, 2012. "Wages and Human Capital in the U.S. Finance Industry: 1909--2006," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1551-1609.
    48. Klimenko, Nataliya & Pfeil, Sebastian & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2017. "A simple macroeconomic model with extreme financial frictions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 92-102.
    49. He, Zhiguo & Kelly, Bryan & Manela, Asaf, 2017. "Intermediary asset pricing: New evidence from many asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 1-35.
    50. Thomas Philippon, 2010. "Financiers versus Engineers: Should the Financial Sector Be Taxed or Subsidized?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 158-182, July.
    51. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    52. Ljungqvist, Lars & Sargent, Thomas J., 2012. "Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, Third Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262018748, December.
    53. Rey, Hélène & ,, 2017. "Financial Cycles with Heterogeneous Intermediaries," CEPR Discussion Papers 11907, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    54. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-384, March.
    55. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    56. van Oordt, Maarten R.C., 2014. "Securitization and the dark side of diversification," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 214-231.
    57. Angeloni, Ignazio & Faia, Ester, 2013. "Capital regulation and monetary policy with fragile banks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 311-324.
    58. Fatih Guvenen & Burhanettin Kuruscu, 2006. "Does Market Incompleteness Matter for Asset Prices?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 484-492, 04-05.
    59. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    60. Emmanuel Haven & Philip Molyneux & John O. S. Wilson & Sergei Fedotov & Meryem Duygun (ed.), 2016. "The Handbook of Post Crisis Financial Modeling," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-49449-8, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Modena, Andrea, 2020. "Recapitalization, bailout, and long-run welfare in a dynamic model of banking," SAFE Working Paper Series 292, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    2. Andrea Modena, 2020. "Recapitalization, Bailout, and Long-run Welfare in a Dynamic Model of Banking," Working Papers 2020:23, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Dindo, Pietro & Modena, Andrea & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2022. "Risk pooling, intermediation efficiency, and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. He, Zhiguo & Kelly, Bryan & Manela, Asaf, 2017. "Intermediary asset pricing: New evidence from many asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 1-35.
    4. Kargar, Mahyar, 2021. "Heterogeneous intermediary asset pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 505-532.
    5. Vadim Elenev & Tim Landvoigt & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "A Macroeconomic Model With Financially Constrained Producers and Intermediaries," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1361-1418, May.
    6. Jesús Fernández‐Villaverde & Samuel Hurtado & Galo Nuño, 2023. "Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(3), pages 869-901, May.
    7. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000384, David K. Levine.
    8. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    9. Hans Gersbach & Jean-Charles Rochet & Martin Scheffel, 2023. "Financial Intermediation, Capital Accumulation, and Crisis Recovery," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1423-1469.
    10. Alan Moreira & Alexi Savov, 2014. "The Macroeconomics of Shadow Banking," NBER Working Papers 20335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. William Chen & Gregory Phelan, 2023. "Should Monetary Policy Target Financial Stability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 181-200, July.
    12. Paul, Pascal, 2020. "A macroeconomic model with occasional financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    13. Laséen, Stefan & Pescatori, Andrea & Turunen, Jarkko, 2017. "Systemic risk: A new trade-off for monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 70-85.
    14. Villacorta, Alonso, 2018. "Business cycles and the balance sheets of the financial and non-financial sectors," ESRB Working Paper Series 68, European Systemic Risk Board.
    15. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Intermediation Markups and Monetary Policy Passthrough," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-75, Swiss Finance Institute.
    16. Brunnermeier, M.K. & Sannikov, Y., 2016. "Macro, Money, and Finance," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1497-1545, Elsevier.
    17. Jondeau, Eric & Khalilzadeh, Amir, 2017. "Collateralization, leverage, and stressed expected loss," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 226-243.
    18. Andrea Modena, 2020. "Recapitalization, Bailout, and Long-run Welfare in a Dynamic Model of Banking," Working Papers 2020:23, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    19. Tobias Adrian & Nellie Liang, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Financial Conditions, and Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 73-131, January.
    20. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2018. "What Do We Know About the Effects of Macroprudential Policy?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(340), pages 735-770, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Amplification; Business Cycle; Financial Frictions; Leverage; Risk Pooling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E69 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Other
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2019:21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Geraldine Ludbrook (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dsvenit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.