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Euro Area monetary policy transmission in Estonia

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  • Gertrud Errit
  • Lenno Uuskula

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of a monetary policy shock in the euro area on the main Estonian economic and financial variables between 2000 and 2012. Using a standard structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model we find strong and persistent effects on Estonian GDP, private consumption, corporate investment and imports. A monetary policy shock has also strong and sluggish effects on the housing loan and consumer credit interest rates. The estimated reaction of Estonian GDP and the GDP deflator-based inflation rate is about four times stronger than the reaction of euro area-wide aggregates. The Estonian money market interest rate (the 3-month Talibor) reacts about twice as strongly as the euro area money market interest rate (the 3-month Euribor). We also show that this finding is sensitive to the inclusion of the data from the years of the recent financial and economic crisis. We conjecture that household interest rates can play an important role in propagating monetary policy shocks in Estonia.

Suggested Citation

  • Gertrud Errit & Lenno Uuskula, 2013. "Euro Area monetary policy transmission in Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2013-7, Bank of Estonia, revised 09 Dec 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2013-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
    2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    3. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    5. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2012. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Some Evidence from the Flow of Funds," NBER Working Papers 4699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Axel Weber & Rafael Gerke & Andreas Worms, 2011. "Changes in euro area monetary transmission?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 131-145.
    8. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 14(Spr), pages 3-18.
    9. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 91, European Central Bank.
    10. Mojon, Benoît & Peersman, Gert, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the euro area," Working Paper Series 92, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Reigl & Karsten Staehr, 2020. "Negative Interest Rates in the Five Eurozone Countries from Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(01), pages 24-30, April.
    2. Julius Stakenas & Rasa Stasiukynaite, 2016. "Monetary policy transmission: the case of Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 24, Bank of Lithuania.
    3. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    4. Margarita Rubio & Mariarosaria Comunale, 2017. "Lithuania in the Euro Area: Monetary Transmission and Macroprudential Policies," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 29-49, January.
    5. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2015. "Examining asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area: Evidence from a mixed cross-section global VAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 195-215.
    6. Dejan Zivkov & Slavica Manic & Jasmina Duraskovic & Jelena Kovacevic, 2019. "Bidirectional Nexus between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Asian Emerging Markets – The GARCH-in-Mean Approach," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(6), pages 580-599, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; SVAR; Estonia; euro area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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