Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area and the Impact of the Financial Crisis
AbstractThe extent of synchronization of national business cycles is a widespread indicator for gauging whether individual countries are indeed ready to adopt a common currency. The occurrence of asymmetric shocks and their consequences in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) may hamper implementation of monetary policy, as such shocks may significantly raise the cost of the single monetary policy for individual countries. This study analyzes whether the synchronization pattern of business cycles in the euro area has systematically changed since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008. Country-specific differences in the terms of trade and fiscal imbalances may have caused the global shock to affect euro area countries asymmetrically. Conversely, the business cycles of individual countries may have become more closely synchronized, as all countries slipped into recession at the same time. For the purpose of this study we use empirical data to establish which of the two effects dominates. The results of the analysis show a pronounced desynchronization of business cycles during the crisis period, both with respect to dispersion and to the correlation of business cycles. Moreover, interesting differences and parallels may be observed between the developments since the beginning of the most recent financial crisis and an earlier period, around 2004, when the output gap in the euro area was negative as well.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its journal Monetary Policy & the Economy.
Volume (Year): (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Documentation Management and Communications Services, Otto-Wagner Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna, Austria
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
- F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
- F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006.
"Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706.
- Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2004. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 16, Society for Computational Economics.
- Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Sáiz Matute, Lorena, 2005. "Are European Business Cycles Close Enough to be Just One?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4824, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Lorena Saiz, 2004. "Are european business cycles close enough to be just one?," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 0408, Banco de Espa�a.
- Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008.
"Business Cycles in the Euro Area,"
NBER Working Papers
14529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Business Cycles in the euro Area," Working Papers ECARES 2008_040, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Ortega, Eva, 2004.
"Similarities and Convergence in G7 Cycles,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4534, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Ortega, Eva, 2004. "Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles," Working Paper Series 0312, European Central Bank.
- Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega, 2004. "Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 0404, Banco de Espa�a.
- Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega, 2003. "Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles," Economics Working Papers 924, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2004.
- Sopraseuth, T., 2000.
"Exchange Rate Regimes and International Business Cycle,"
Papiers d'Economie MathÃÂ©matique et Applications
2000.17, UniversitÃ© PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
- Theptida Sopraseuth, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and International Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), pages 338-361, April.
- Jakob de Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong-A-Pin, 2008.
"Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, 04.
- Haan, Jakob de & Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard, 2005. "Will business cycles in the Euro Area converge : a critical survey of empirical research," CCSO Working Papers 200508, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
- Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Octavio Fernández-Amador, 2010.
"Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment,"
FIW Working Paper series
- Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 265-284.
- Jes?s Crespo-Cuaresma & Octavio Fern?ndez-Amador, 2010. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Working Papers 2010-22, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
- Alberto Alesina & Robert Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2002.
"Optimal Currency Areas,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1958, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2002. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Working Papers 9072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tenreyro, Silvana & Barro, Robert & Alesina, Alberto, 2002. "Optimal Currency Areas," Scholarly Articles 4553033, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2008. "European Economic and Monetary Integration, and the Optimum Currency Area Theory," European Economy - Economic Papers 302, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981.
"Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation,"
451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
- James Mitchell & Michael Massmann, 2004.
"Reconsidering the evidence: are Eurozone business cycles converging?,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003
67, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Massmann, Michael & Mitchell, James, 2003. "Reconsidering the evidence: Are Eurozone business cycles converging," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2003, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon Van_Norden, 2000.
"The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0768, Econometric Society.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The reliability of output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, EconWPA.
- Böwer, Uwe & Guillemineau, Catherine, 2006. "Determinants of business cycle synchronisation across euro area countries," Working Paper Series 0587, European Central Bank.
- Klaus Weyerstrass & Bas Aarle & Marcus Kappler & Atilim Seymen, 2011. "Business Cycle Synchronisation with(in) the Euro Area: in Search of a ‘Euro Effect’," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 427-446, July.
- George Tavlas, 1994. "The theory of monetary integration," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 211-230, March.
- Martin Carree & Luuk Klomp, 1997. "Testing The Convergence Hypothesis: A Comment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 683-686, November.
- Joffrey Malek Mansour, 2003. "Do national business cycles have an international origin?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13490, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series 1157, European Central Bank.
- Fleming, J Marcus, 1971. "On Exchange Rate Unification," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 81(323), pages 467-88, September.
- Carlo Altavilla, 2004. "Do EMU Members Share the Same Business Cycle?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 869-896, December.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
- Svatopluk Kapounek & Jitka Pomenkova, 2012. "The Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas Criteria in the Context of Financial Crisis: Evidence from Time-Frequency Domain Analysis," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2012-31, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
- Petr Rozmahel & Ludek Kouba & Ladislava Grochová & Nikola Najman, 2013. "Integration of Central and Eastern European Countries: Increasing EU Heterogeneity?," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 9, WWWforEurope.
- Quint, Dominic, 2014. "Is it really more dispersed? Measuring and comparing the stress from the common monetary policy in the euro area," Discussion Papers 2014/13, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
- Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2013.
"¿Convergen los ciclos económicos de los estados de la zona euro?: evidencia empírica
[Do Economic Cycles Converge In The Euro Zone?: Empirical Evidence]," MPRA Paper 48145, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudia Kwapil).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.