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Monetary Policy, Capital Inflows, and the Housing Boom

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Abstract

We estimate an open economy VAR model to quantify the effect of monetary policy and capital inflows shocks on the US housing market. The shocks are identified with sign restrictions derived from a standard DSGE model. We find that monetary policy shocks have a limited effect on house prices and residential investment. In contrast, capital inflows shocks driven by an increase in foreign savings have a positive and persistent effect on both housing variables. Other sources of capital inflows shocks, such as foreign monetary expansion or an increase in aggregate demand in the US, have a more limited role.

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  • Sá, F. & Wieladek, T., 2011. "Monetary Policy, Capital Inflows, and the Housing Boom," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1141, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1141
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    Cited by:

    1. Filipa Sa & Pascal Towbin & Tomasz Wieladek, 2011. "Low interest rates and housing booms: the role of capital inflows, monetary policy and financial innovation," Globalization Institute Working Papers 79, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Andrey Pavlov & Tsur Somerville, 2020. "Immigration, Capital Flows and Housing Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(3), pages 915-949, September.
    3. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_047.
    4. repec:zbw:bofism:2012_047 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2012_047.
    6. Merrouche, Ouarda & Nier, Erlend, 2017. "Capital inflows, monetary policy, and financial imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 117-142.
    7. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2014. "Towards an explanation of cross-country asymmetries in monetary transmission," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 66-84.
    8. Deniz Igan & Zhibo Tan, 2017. "Capital Inflows, Credit Growth, and Financial Systems," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 2649-2671, December.
    9. Agnieszka Stążka-Gawrysiak, 2011. "Poland on the road to the euro: How serious is the risk of boom-bust cycles after the euro adoption? An empirical analysis," NBP Working Papers 103, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    10. Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2014. "House prices, capital inflows and macroprudential policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 337-355.
    11. Mark A. Wynne, 2012. "Five Years of Research on Globalization and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned?," Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 2-17.
    12. Aylin Soydan & Serap Bedir Kara, 2020. "Implications of Capital Flows for Domestic Credit Growth: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 8(4), pages 231-245.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; capital inflows; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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