Evaluation of the Effects of Reduced Personal and Corporate Tax Rates on the Growth Rates of the U.S. Economy
AbstractUsing several variants of a Marshallian Macroeconomic Model (MMM), see Zellner and Israilevich (2005) and Ngoie and Zellner (2012), this paper investigates how various tax rate reductions may help stimulate the U.S. economy while not adversely affecting aggregate U.S. debt. Variants of our MMM that are shown to fit past data and to perform well in forecasting experiments are employed to evaluate the effects of alternative tax policies. Using quarterly data, our one-sector MMM has been able to predict the 2008 downturn and the 2009Q3 upturn of the U.S. economy. Among other results, this study, using transfer and impulse response functions associated with our MMM, finds that permanent 5 percentage points cut in the personal income and corporate profits tax rates will cause the U.S. real GDP growth rate to rise by 3.0 percentage points with a standard error of 0.6 percentage points. Also, while this policy change leads to positive growth of the government sector, its share of total real GDP is slightly reduced. This is understandable since short run effects of tax cuts include the transfer of tax revenue from the government to the private sector. The private sector is allowed to manage a larger portion of its revenue while government is forced to cut public spending on social programs with little growth enhancing effects. This broadens private economic activities overall. Further, these tax rate policy changes stimulate the growth of the federal tax base considerably which helps to reduce annual budget deficits and the federal debt.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economic Research Southern Africa in its series Working Papers with number 280.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
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Marshallian Macroeconomic Model; Disaggregation; Transfer Functions; Impulse Response Functions; U.S. Fiscal Policy Analysis.;
Other versions of this item:
- Jacques Kibambe Ngoie & Arnold Zellner, 2012. "Evaluation of the Effects of Reduced Personal and Corporate Tax Rates on the Growth Rates of the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 201217, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ACC-2012-05-22 (Accounting & Auditing)
- NEP-ALL-2012-05-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-FDG-2012-05-22 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-MAC-2012-05-22 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2012-05-22 (Public Economics)
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