IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cii/cepill/2019-403.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Les cycles financiers convergent-ils en zone euro? En phase oui, en amplitude non

Author

Listed:
  • Maximilien Coussin
  • Anne-Laure Delatte

Abstract

Dans le prolongement des travaux de la Banque des règlements internationaux, l’étude du cycle financier est cruciale pour la mise en oeuvre des politiques de stabilité financière. Tout particulièrement pour le volet contracyclique de la politique macroprudentielle qui vise à le réguler. Le cas de la zone euro est particulier puisque la mise en oeuvre d’une telle politique dépend fondamentalement du degré de synchronisation des cycles financiers des pays membres. Dans cette Lettre, au moyen d’une nouvelle méthode statistique, nous montrons qu’il n’existe pas un cycle financier commun, mais plusieurs cycles financiers européens. Bien que ces cycles soient de plus en plus en phase (ils montent ou baissent partout en même temps), ils divergent d’un pays à l’autre en amplitude. Nous parvenons à dater des ruptures dans le degré de dispersion de ces cycles, et à identifier statistiquement des groupes de pays dont les cycles financiers sont proches. Cela a des implications pour la conduite de la politique macroprudentielle.

Suggested Citation

  • Maximilien Coussin & Anne-Laure Delatte, 2019. "Les cycles financiers convergent-ils en zone euro? En phase oui, en amplitude non," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 403.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepill:2019-403
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/lettre/2019/let403.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William Oman, 2019. "The Synchronization of Business Cycles and Financial Cycles in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(1), pages 327-362, March.
    2. Richter, Björn & Schularick, Moritz & Shim, Ilhyock, 2019. "The costs of macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 263-282.
    3. repec:pes:ierequ:v:14:y:2019:i:1:p:lip.29 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 141-167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hobza, Alexandr & Zeugner, Stefan, 2014. "Current accounts and financial flows in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 291-313.
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    7. Jézabel Couppey-Soubeyran & Salim Dehmej, 2017. "Réduire les divergences en zone euro en régulant les cycles financiers," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 382.
    8. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 265-284.
    9. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2017. "Leaning Against the Wind: The Role of Different Assumptions About the Costs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    12. Frank Smets, 2014. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: How Closely Interlinked?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 263-300, June.
    13. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Lenza, Michele, 2009. "Business cycles in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1010, European Central Bank.
    14. Marinko Skare & Malgorzata Porada-Rochon, 2019. "Tracking financial cycles in ten transitional economies 2005–2018 using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) techniques," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 14(1), pages 7-29, March.
    15. Stremmel, Hanno, 2015. "Capturing the financial cycle in Europe," Working Paper Series 1811, European Central Bank.
    16. Ruo Chen & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Thierry Tressel, 2013. "External imbalances in the eurozone [Trade effects of the euro: evidence from sectoral data]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(73), pages 101-142.
    17. Claudio Borio, 2014. "Monetary policy and financial stability: what role in prevention and recovery?," BIS Working Papers 440, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Rünstler, Gerhard & Balfoussia, Hiona & Burlon, Lorenzo & Buss, Ginters & Comunale, Mariarosaria & De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Guarda, Paolo & Haavio, Markus & Hindrayanto, Irma & Iskrev, Nik, 2018. "Real and financial cycles in EU countries - Stylised facts and modelling implications," Occasional Paper Series 205, European Central Bank.
    19. Schüler, Yves S., 2018. "Detrending and financial cycle facts across G7 countries: mind a spurious medium term!," Working Paper Series 2138, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gammadigbe, Vigninou, 2022. "Financial Cycles Synchronization in WAEMU Countries: Implications for Macroprudential Policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    2. Dalia Mansour-Ibrahim, 2023. "Are the Eurozone Financial and Business Cycles Convergent Across Time and Frequency?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 389-427, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    2. Jasper de Winter & Siem Jan Koopman & Irma Hindrayanto, 2022. "Joint Decomposition of Business and Financial Cycles: Evidence from Eight Advanced Economies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 57-79, February.
    3. Amat Adarov, 2023. "Financial cycles in Europe: dynamics, synchronicity and implications for business cycles and macroeconomic imbalances," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 551-583, May.
    4. Davor Kunovac & Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2018. "Financial cycles in euro area economies: a cross-country perspective," Working Papers 55, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    5. Samarina, Anna & Zhang, Lu & Bezemer, Dirk, 2017. "Credit cycle coherence in the eurozone: Was there a euro effect?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 77-98.
    6. Coussin, Maximilien, 2022. "Singular spectrum analysis for real-time financial cycles measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    7. Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Hwang, Sun Ho & Kim, Yun Jung, 2021. "International output synchronization at different frequencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    9. Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Papers 1038, World Trade Institute.
    10. David Martinez-Miera & Rafael Repullo, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Policy, and Financial Stability," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 809-832, August.
    11. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2022. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    12. Xin Tian & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2022. "Alternative Measures for the Global Financial Cycle: Do They Make a Difference?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9730, CESifo.
    13. Amat Adarov, 2022. "Financial cycles around the world," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3163-3201, July.
    14. Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2022. "Financial cycles across G7 economies: A view from wavelet analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    15. Ioanna Kokores, 2015. "Lean-Against-the-Wind Monetary Policy: The Post-Crisis Shift in the Literature," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 66-99, july-Dece.
    16. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2022. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    17. Gammadigbe, Vigninou, 2022. "Financial Cycles Synchronization in WAEMU Countries: Implications for Macroprudential Policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    18. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    19. Montagnoli, Alberto & Mouratidis, Konstantinos & Whyte, Kemar, 2021. "Assessing the cyclical behaviour of bank capital buffers in a finance-augmented macro-economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    20. Martin Gächter & Aleksandra Riedl & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2012. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area and the Impact of the Financial Crisis," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 33-60.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cii:cepill:2019-403. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepiifr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.