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Attention to the tail(s): global financial conditions and exchange rate risks

Author

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  • Eguren-Martin, Fernando

    (Bank of England)

  • Sokol, Andrej

    (European Central Bank, Bank of England and CfM)

Abstract

We document how the entire distribution of exchange rate returns responds to changes in global financial conditions. We measure global financial conditions as the common component of country-specific financial condition indices, computed consistently across a large panel of developed and emerging economies. Based on quantile regression results, we provide a characterisation and ranking of the tail behaviour of a large sample of currencies in response to a tightening of global financial conditions, corroborating some of the prevailing narratives about safe haven and risky currencies. We then carry out a portfolio sorting exercise to identify the macroeconomic fundamentals associated with such different tail behaviour, and find that currency portfolios sorted on the basis of relative interest rates, current account balances and levels of international reserves display a higher likelihood of large losses in response to a tightening of global financial conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Eguren-Martin, Fernando & Sokol, Andrej, 2019. "Attention to the tail(s): global financial conditions and exchange rate risks," Bank of England working papers 822, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0822
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    Cited by:

    1. Ostry, D. A., 2023. "Tails of Foreign Exchange-at-Risk (FEaR)," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2311, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Laurent Ferrara & Joseph Yapi, 2022. "Measuring exchange rate risks during periods of uncertainty," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 202-212.
    3. Busetto, Filippo, 2024. "Asymmetric expectations of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 1058, Bank of England.
    4. Eguren-Martin, Fernando & O'Neill, Cian & Sokol, Andrej & von dem Berge, Lukas, 2020. "Capital flows-at-risk: push, pull and the role of policy," Bank of England working papers 881, Bank of England.
    5. Ostry, D. A., 2023. "Tails of Foreign Exchange-at-Risk (FEaR)," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2343, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Aikman, David & Bridges, Jonathan & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem & O’Neill, Cian & Raja, Akash, 2019. "Credit, capital and crises: a GDP-at-Risk approach," Bank of England working papers 824, Bank of England, revised 18 Oct 2019.
    7. Lloyd, Simon & Manuel, Ed & Panchev, Konstantin, 2021. "Foreign vulnerabilities, domestic risks: the global drivers of GDP-at-Risk," Bank of England working papers 940, Bank of England.
    8. Sona Benecka & Petr Polak, 2023. "Regional sentiment of Central European currencies in the global context," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - March 2023, pages 13-20, Czech National Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; tail risks; financial conditions indices; global financial cycle; quantile regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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