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Credit, capital and crises: a GDP-at-Risk approach

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  • HacıoÄŸlu Hoke, Sinem
  • Aikman, David
  • Bridges, Jonathan
  • O'Neill, Cian
  • Raja, Akash

Abstract

Using quantile regressions applied to a panel dataset of 16 advanced economies, we examine how downside risk to growth over the medium term is affected by a set of macroprudential indicators. We find that credit and property price booms, and wide current account deficits increase downside risks 3 to 5 years ahead. However, such downside risks can be partially mitigated by increasing the capital ratio of the banking system. We show that GDP-at-Risk, defined as the the 5th quantile of the projected GDP growth distribution three years ahead, deteriorated in the US in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis, driven by rapid growth in credit and house prices alongside a widening current account deficit. Our results suggest such indicators could provide useful information for the stance of macroprudential policy.

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  • HacıoÄŸlu Hoke, Sinem & Aikman, David & Bridges, Jonathan & O'Neill, Cian & Raja, Akash, 2021. "Credit, capital and crises: a GDP-at-Risk approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 15864, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15864
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    Cited by:

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    3. Stolbov, Mikhail & Shchepeleva, Maria, 2022. "Modeling global real economic activity: Evidence from variable selection across quantiles," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    4. Lloyd, Simon & Manuel, Ed & Panchev, Konstantin, 2021. "Foreign vulnerabilities, domestic risks: the global drivers of GDP-at-Risk," Bank of England working papers 940, Bank of England.
    5. Martin Gächter & Martin Geiger & Elias Hasler, 2023. "On the Structural Determinants of Growth-at-Risk," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(2), pages 251-293, June.
    6. Martin Gachter & Elias Hasler & Florian Huber, 2023. "A tale of two tails: 130 years of growth-at-risk," Papers 2302.08920, arXiv.org.
    7. Daisuke Ikeda & Hidehiko Matsumoto, 2021. "Procyclical Leverage and Crisis Probability in a Macroeconomic Model of Bank Runs," IMES Discussion Paper Series 21-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    8. Milan Szabo, 2020. "Growth-at-Risk: Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 2020/3, Czech National Bank.
    9. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2023. "Credit-to-GDP Gap Estimates in Real Time: A Stable Indicator for Macroprudential Policy Making in Croatia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(3), pages 582-614, September.
    10. Anil K Kashyap, 2020. "My Reflections on the FPC's Strategy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S1), pages 63-75, October.
    11. Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & Montañez-Enríquez, Ricardo & Ossandon Busch, Matias & Ramos-Francia, Manuel & Rodríguez-Martínez, Anahí & Sánchez-Martínez, Manuel, 2022. "Stress-ridden finance and growth losses: Does financial development break the link?," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    12. Mikael Juselius & Nikola Tarashev, 2020. "Forecasting expected and unexpected losses," BIS Working Papers 913, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Eguren-Martin, Fernando & O'Neill, Cian & Sokol, Andrej & von dem Berge, Lukas, 2020. "Capital flows-at-risk: push, pull and the role of policy," Bank of England working papers 881, Bank of England.
    14. Mikael Juselius & Nikola Tarashev, 2020. "Forecasting expected and unexpected losses," BIS Working Papers 913, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Bruno Albuquerque, 2021. "Corporate debt booms, financial constraints, and the investment nexus," CeBER Working Papers 2021-08, Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra.
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    17. Millard, Stephen & Rubio, Margarita & Varadi, Alexandra, 2021. "The macroprudential toolkit: effectiveness and interactions," Bank of England working papers 902, Bank of England.
    18. Busetto, Filippo, 2024. "Asymmetric expectations of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 1058, Bank of England.
    19. Franta, Michal & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2020. "On the effects of macroprudential policies on Growth-at-Risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    20. King, Benjamin & Semark, James, 2022. "Reducing liquidity mismatch in open-ended funds: a cost-benefit analysis," Bank of England working papers 975, Bank of England.
    21. Ossandon Busch, Matias & Sánchez-Martínez, José Manuel & Rodríguez-Martínez, Anahí & Montañez-Enríquez, Ricardo & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín, 2022. "Growth at risk: Methodology and applications in an open-source platform," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(3).
    22. Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kang, Miao & Kapadia, Sujit & Simsek, Özgür, 2020. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: evidence from a machine learning approach," Bank of England working papers 848, Bank of England.
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    24. Stephen Millard, & Margarita Rubio & Alexandra Varadi, 2020. "The impact of Covid-19 on productivity," Discussion Papers 2020/14, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial stability; Gdp-at-risk; Macroprudential policy; Quantile regressions; Local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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