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Marta Banbura

Citations

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RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models
    2. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Bayesian Vector autoregressions (BVARs)
  2. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models
    2. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Bayesian Vector autoregressions (BVARs)

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Marta Bañbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Nowcasting," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-021, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Nowcasting (economics) in Wikipedia (English)
  2. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Large Bayesian vector auto regressions (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2011) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2024. "The bias of the ECB inflation projections: A State-dependent analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2024, Bank of Finland.
    2. Jouvanceau, Valentin & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Dieppe, Alistair & Kockerols, Thore, 2025. "Trade wars and global spillovers. A quantitative assessment with ECB-global," Working Paper Series 3117, European Central Bank.

  2. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "What drives core inflation? The role of supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2875, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. Bonam, Dennis & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Pacheco, Mariana Montserrat Cerra, 2025. "The fiscal sources of euro area inflation through the lens of the Bernanke-Blanchard model," Working Paper Series 3153, European Central Bank.
    3. Fukunaga, Ichiro & Kido, Yosuke & Suita, Kotaro, 2025. "Japan's inflation under global inflation synchronization," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber & Christophe Barrette & Maximilian Goebel, 2024. "Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation," Papers 2404.05209, arXiv.org.
    5. Meg Tulloch, "undated". "Nowcasting and Forecasting Average Weekly Earnings in the United Kingdom," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 565, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    6. Szafranek, Karol & Szafrański, Grzegorz & Leszczyńska-Paczesna, Agnieszka, 2024. "Inflation returns. Revisiting the role of external and domestic shocks with Bayesian structural VAR," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 789-810.
    7. Jan Pruser, 2024. "A large non-Gaussian structural VAR with application to Monetary Policy," Papers 2412.17598, arXiv.org.
    8. Kamps, Christophe & Bussière, Matthieu & Niessner, Birgit & Tristani, Oreste & Christoffel, Kai & Kapadia, Sujit & Ferrero, Giuseppe & Gilbert, Niels & Vlassopoulos, Thomas & Motto, Roberto & Gerke, R, 2025. "Report on monetary policy tools, strategy and communication," Occasional Paper Series 372, European Central Bank.
    9. Boeck, Maximilian & Zörner, Thomas O., 2025. "Natural gas prices, inflation expectations, and the pass-through to euro area inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. Lukas Berend & Jan Pruser, 2025. "Large structural VARs with multiple linear shock and impact inequality restrictions," Papers 2505.19244, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    11. Ferreira, Vicente & Abreu, Alexandre & Louçã, Francisco, 2025. "The rise and fall of inflation in the Euro Area (2021-2024): A heterodox perspective," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 103-110.
    12. Fosso, Luca, 2025. "Decomposing US economic fluctuations: a trend-cycle approach," Working Paper Series 3138, European Central Bank.
    13. Wang, Zhi & Peng, Xingxing, 2025. "How monetary policy and supply chain shocks impact the consumer energy prices using nonlinear ARDL and wavelet coherence approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    14. Ascari, Guido & Bonam, Dennis & Smadu, Andra, 2024. "Global supply chain pressures, inflation, and implications for monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    15. Lin, Xiang & Li, Xiaoying, 2025. "A study on anchoring Swedish inflation expectations in times of turbulence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    16. Bobeica, Elena & Holton, Sarah & Huber, Florian & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2025. "Beware of large shocks! A non-parametric structural inflation model," Working Paper Series 3052, European Central Bank.
    17. Daniele Colombo & Francesco Toni, 2025. "Understanding Gas Price Shocks: Elasticities, Volatilities, and Macroeconomic Transmission," LEM Papers Series 2025/20, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    18. Lukas Berend & Jan Pruser, 2024. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy via Common Cycles in the Euro Area," Papers 2410.05741, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    19. Daniele Colombo & Francesco Toni, 2025. "Understanding Gas Price Shocks: Elasticities, Volatility and Macroeconomic Transmission," GREDEG Working Papers 2025-20, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    20. Ko, Dong Gyun, 2025. "Did the American Rescue Plan cause inflation? A synthetic control approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    21. Aydin Yakut, Dilan, 2025. "Beyond Aggregates: A Dual Lens on Eurozone Trend Inflation," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/25, Central Bank of Ireland.
    22. Guido Ascari & Dennis Bonam & Lorenzo Mori & Andra Smadu, 2024. "Fiscal Policy and Inflation in the Euro Area," Working Papers 820, DNB.

  3. Bańbura, Marta & Brenna, Federica & Paredes, Joan & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2021. "Combining Bayesian VARs with survey density forecasts: does it pay off?," Working Paper Series 2543, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2024. "Forecasting euro area inflation using a huge panel of survey expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1042-1054.
    2. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
    3. Burban, Valentin & De Backer, Bruno & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2024. "Inflation (de-)anchoring in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2964, European Central Bank.
    4. Allayioti, Anastasia & Arioli, Rodolfo & Bates, Colm & Botelho, Vasco & Fagandini, Bruno & Fonseca, Luís & Healy, Peter & Meyler, Aidan & Minasian, Ryan & Zahrt, Octavia, 2024. "A look back at 25 years of the ECB SPF," Occasional Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
    5. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2024. "Forecasts with Bayesian vector autoregressions under real time conditions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 771-801, April.
    6. Richard Schnorrenberger & Aishameriane Schmidt & Guilherme Valle Moura, 2024. "Harnessing Machine Learning for Real-Time Inflation Nowcasting," Working Papers 806, DNB.
    7. Peter McAdam & Anders Warne, 2024. "Density forecast combinations: The real‐time dimension," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1153-1172, August.
    8. Adämmer, Philipp & Prüser, Jan & Schüssler, Rainer A., 2025. "Forecasting macroeconomic tail risk in real time: Do textual data add value?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 307-320.
    9. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    10. Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for inflation modelling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 519-539.
    11. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Giammaria, Alessandro & Porqueddu, Mario & van Spronsen, Josha, 2025. "A new model to forecast energy inflation in the euro area," Working Paper Series 3062, European Central Bank.
    12. Barbaglia, Luca & Frattarolo, Lorenzo & Onorante, Luca & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Ratto, Marco & Tiozzo Pezzoli, Luca, 2023. "Testing big data in a big crisis: Nowcasting under Covid-19," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1548-1563.

  4. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Glas, Alexander & Heinisch, Katja, 2023. "Conditional macroeconomic survey forecasts: Revisions and errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    2. Ehrmann, Michael & Holton, Sarah & Kedan, Danielle & Phelan, Gillian, 2022. "Monetary Policy Communication: Perspectives from Former Policy Makers at the ECB," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Yury Perevyshin, 2024. "Analysts' Inflation Expectations vs Univariate Models of Inflation Forecasting in the Russian Economy," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(2), pages 54-76, June.
    4. Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021. "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series 280, European Central Bank.
    5. Andrejs Zlobins, 2022. "Into the Universe of Unconventional Monetary Policy: State-dependence, Interaction and Complementarities," Working Papers 2022/05, Latvijas Banka.
    6. Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for inflation modelling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 519-539.
    7. Baumann, Ursel & Ferrando, Annalisa & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Reinelt, Timo, 2024. "SAFE to update inflation expectations? New survey evidence on euro area firms," Working Paper Series 2949, European Central Bank.

  5. Marta Bañbura & Danilo Leiva-León & Jan-Oliver Menz, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation Forecasts?," Working Papers 2138, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2024. "Forecasting euro area inflation using a huge panel of survey expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1042-1054.
    2. Burban, Valentin & De Backer, Bruno & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2024. "Inflation (de-)anchoring in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2964, European Central Bank.
    3. Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo & Nikola Bokan & Fabio Alberto Comazzi & Michele Lenza, 2025. "Word2Prices: embedding central bank communications for inflation prediction," BIS Working Papers 1253, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Richard Schnorrenberger & Aishameriane Schmidt & Guilherme Valle Moura, 2024. "Harnessing Machine Learning for Real-Time Inflation Nowcasting," Working Papers 806, DNB.
    5. Ferrara, Laurent & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2024. "Oil jump tail risk as a driver of inflation dynamics," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    6. Joni Heikkinen & Kari Heimonen, 2025. "Media Tone: The Role of News and Social Media on Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 881-921, April.
    7. Olivier de Bandt & Jean-Charles Bricongne & Julien Denes & Alexandre Dhenin & Annabelle De Gaye & Pierre-Antoine Robert, 2023. "Using the Press to Construct a New Indicator of Inflation Perceptions in France," Working papers 921, Banque de France.
    8. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    9. Giulio Galdi & Roberto Casarin & Davide Ferrari & Carlo Fezzi & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2022. "Nowcasting industrial production using linear and non-linear models of electricity demand," DEM Working Papers 2022/2, Department of Economics and Management.
    10. Martin Ertl & Ines Fortin & Jaroslava Hlouskova & Sebastian P. Koch & Robert M. Kunst & Leopold Sögner, 2025. "Inflation forecasting in turbulent times," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 5-37, February.
    11. Luigi Bonatti, & Andrea Fracasso & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "What to expect from inflation expectations: theory, empirics and policy issues," DEM Working Papers 2022/1, Department of Economics and Management.
    12. Le Bihan, Hervé & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Pacce, Matías, 2023. "Underlying inflation and asymmetric risks," Working Paper Series 2848, European Central Bank.

  6. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 2471, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
    2. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    3. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2022. "The updated Okun method for estimation of potential output with alternative measures of labor underutilization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 158-178.
    4. Manuel M. F. Martins & Fabio Verona, 2024. "Forecasting Inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Frequencies Matter," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(4), pages 811-832, August.
    5. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Working Papers 22-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    6. Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas & Yongli Wang & Deborah Gefang, 2024. "Inflation forecasting with rolling windows: An appraisal," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 827-851, July.
    7. Panpan Zhu & Qingjie Zhou & Yinpeng Zhang, 2024. "Investor attention and consumer price index inflation rate: Evidence from the United States," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Nicholas Apergis, 2024. "Eurozone inflation: fresh projections from global factors," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 39-47.
    9. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2021. "Gauging the Effect of Influential Observations on Measures of Relative Forecast Accuracy in a Post-COVID-19 Era: Application to Nowcasting Euro Area GDP Growth," Working Papers 2021/01, Latvijas Banka.
    10. Degiannakis, Stavros & Delis, Panagiotis & Filis, George, 2025. "Forecasting household-level inflation in Greece," MPRA Paper 127228, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Luca Brugnolini & Giuseppe Ragusa, 2022. "Euro Area Deflationary Pressure Index," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 883-900, October.
    12. Joseph, Andreas & Potjagailo, Galina & Chakraborty, Chiranjit & Kapetanios, George, 2024. "Forecasting UK inflation bottom up," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1521-1538.
    13. Nickel, Christiane & Kilponen, Juha & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Koester, Gerrit & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Enders, Almira & Holton, Sarah & Landau, Bettina & Venditti, Fabrizio & Bobeica, Elena & Brand, Cla, 2025. "A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.
    14. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2024. "Enhancing forecast accuracy through frequencydomain combination: Applications to financial and economic indicators," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2024, Bank of Finland.
    15. Alberto Americo & Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo & Johannes Damp & Sjur Nilsen & Daniel Rees & Rafael Schmidt & Christian Schmieder, 2025. "Inflation cycles: evidence from international data," BIS Working Papers 1264, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.
    17. Nataliia Ostapenko, 2022. "Do output gap estimates improve inflation forecasts in Slovakia?," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2022, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    18. Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for inflation modelling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 519-539.
    19. Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2021. "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for time series models," Working Paper Series 2558, European Central Bank.
    20. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 31 May 2024.
    21. Mućk, Jakub & Błażejowska, Aneta & Łapszys, Karolina & Szafranek, Karol, 2025. "On the effect of e-commerce’s spread on inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).

  7. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "PCCI – a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area," Statistics Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Bobeica Elena & Holton Sarah & Koester Gerrit, 2023. "Bringing Inflation Back Under Control," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Sciendo, vol. 58(3), pages 136-141, June.
    2. Matthew Fontes Baptista & Stéphane Lhuissier & Matteo Mogliani, 2024. "Measuring the underlying component of inflation [Mesurer la composante sous-jacente de l’inflation]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 253.
    3. Ampudia, Miguel & Ehrmann, Michael & Strasser, Georg, 2023. "The effect of monetary policy on inflation heterogeneity along the income distribution," Working Paper Series 2858, European Central Bank.
    4. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "What drives core inflation? The role of supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2875, European Central Bank.
    5. Aydin Yakut, Dilan, 2025. "Beyond Aggregates: A Dual Lens on Eurozone Trend Inflation," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/25, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. Le Bihan, Hervé & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Pacce, Matías, 2023. "Underlying inflation and asymmetric risks," Working Paper Series 2848, European Central Bank.

  8. Marta Banbura & Andries van Vlodrop, 2018. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Time Variation in the Mean," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-025/IV, Tinbergen Institute.

    Cited by:

    1. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 2471, European Central Bank.
    2. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
    3. Andrei Dubovik & Adam Elbourne & Bram Hendriks & Mark Kattenberg, 2022. "Forecasting World Trade Using Big Data and Machine Learning Techniques," CPB Discussion Paper 441, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. Chan, Joshua C.C., 2023. "Comparing stochastic volatility specifications for large Bayesian VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1419-1446.
    5. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2018. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay ? Insights from a time-varying parameter model with survey data," Working Paper Research 355, National Bank of Belgium.
    6. Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2018. "Forecasting using mixed-frequency VARs with time-varying parameters," ifo Working Paper Series 273, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    8. Ganics, Gergely & Odendahl, Florens, 2021. "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information, and structural change in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 971-999.
    9. John Aguirre & Alan Ledesma & Fernando Perez & Youel Rojas, 2025. "Economic activity, inflation, and monetary policy after extreme weather events: ENSO and its economic impact on the Peruvian economy," BIS Working Papers 1276, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    11. Bańbura, Marta & Brenna, Federica & Paredes, Joan & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2021. "Combining Bayesian VARs with survey density forecasts: does it pay off?," Working Paper Series 2543, European Central Bank.
    12. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, July.
    13. Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2020. "Real-Time Forecasting Using Mixed-Frequency VARS with Time-Varying Parameters," CESifo Working Paper Series 8054, CESifo.
    14. Fu, Bowen, 2023. "Measuring the trend real interest rate in a data-rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    15. Götz, Thomas B. & Hauzenberger, Klemens, 2018. "Large mixed-frequency VARs with a parsimonious time-varying parameter structure," Discussion Papers 40/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.

  9. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Azqueta-Gavaldón, Andrés & Hirschbühl, Dominik & Onorante, Luca & Saiz, Lorena, 2023. "Sources of Economic Policy Uncertainty in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    2. Hickey, Rónán & Lozej, Matija & Smyth, Diarmaid, 2020. "Financing government investment and its implications for public capital: A small open economy perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 620-641.

  10. Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Olga Korotkikh, 2020. "A Multi-Country BVAR Model for the External Sector," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(4), pages 98-112, December.
    2. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
    3. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03403269, HAL.
    4. Anastasios Evgenidis & Stephanos Papadamou, 2021. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area. Structural and scenario analysis from a Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5684-5703, October.
    5. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2015. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Manuel Menkhoff & Sascha Möhrle & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Pauliina Sandqv, 2020. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2020: Das Coronavirus schlägt zurück – erneuter Shutdown bremst Konjunktur ein zweites Mal aus," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(Sonderaus), pages 03-61, December.
    7. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain & Bikai, Landry, 2019. "Les prévisions conditionnelles sont-elles plus précises que les prévisions inconditionnelles dans les projections de croissance et d’inflation en zone CEMAC ? [Should conditional forecasts of inflation and real growth more accurate than unconditio," MPRA Paper 116432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. William W. Chow & Michael K. Fung, 2021. "The effects of macroprudential policy on Hong Kong’s housing market: a multivariate ordered probit-augmented vector autoregressive approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 633-660, February.
    9. Berg, Tim O. & Henzel, Steffen R., 2015. "Point and density forecasts for the euro area using Bayesian VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1067-1095.
    10. Byoung Hark Yoo, 2023. "Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08," Working Papers 59629, Congressional Budget Office.
    11. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Jamie L. Cross & Helene Olsen, 2024. "Unveiling inflation: Oil Shocks, Supply Chain Pressures, and Expectations," Working Papers No 05/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    12. Sebastian Ankargren & Mårten Bjellerup & Hovick Shahnazarian, 2017. "The importance of the financial system for the real economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1553-1586, December.
    13. Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Marek Rusnák, 2016. "Forecasting Czech GDP Using Mixed-Frequency Data Models," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(2), pages 165-185, December.
    14. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    15. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Forecasting using variational Bayesian inference in large vector autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 346-363.
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    18. Alejandro Steven Fonseca-Zendejas & Carmen Borrego-Salcido & M. Carmen Delgado, 2025. "Internal migration in Spain: identifying key drivers for forecasting," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 74(2), pages 1-23, June.
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    61. Endong Wang, 2024. "Local projections identify the same policy counterfactuals as empirical and structural models," Papers 2409.09577, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    62. Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Nicola Viegi, 2023. "Changing the inflation target in emerging markets: the reward of reducing risk," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(3), pages 1453-1457.
    63. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2019. "Financial nowcasts and their usefulness in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1708-1724.
    64. Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2022. "How to estimate a vector autoregression after March 2020," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 688-699, June.
    65. Bańbura, Marta & Belousova, Irina & Bodnár, Katalin & Tóth, Máté Barnabás, 2023. "Nowcasting employment in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2815, European Central Bank.
    66. Narcissa Balta & Bořek Vašíček, 2020. "Financial channels and economic activity in the euro area: a large-scale Bayesian VAR approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 431-451, May.
    67. Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2024. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    68. D’Amuri, Francesco & De Philippis, Marta & Guglielminetti, Elisa & Lo Bello, Salvatore, 2022. "Slack and prices during Covid-19: Accounting for labor market participation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    69. Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Fan charts 2.0: flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," Working Paper Series 2624, European Central Bank.
    70. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2025. "Bank Capital Requirements, Lending Supply, and Economic Activity: A Scenario Analysis Perspective," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 1132-1164, April.
    71. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "What drives core inflation? The role of supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2875, European Central Bank.
    72. Simone Emiliozzi & Elisa Guglielminetti & Michele Loberto, 2018. "Forecasting house prices in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 463, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    73. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    74. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    75. Itkonen, Juha & Juvonen, Petteri, 2017. "Nowcasting the Finnish economy with a large Bayesian vector autoregressive model," BoF Economics Review 6/2017, Bank of Finland.
    76. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models: A Critical Review," Papers 2303.11777, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    77. Jarociński, Marek & Bobeica, Elena, 2017. "Missing disinflation and missing inflation: the puzzles that aren't," Working Paper Series 2000, European Central Bank.
    78. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2025. "Conditional forecasts in large Bayesian VARs with multiple equality and inequality constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    79. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Luis Uzeda, 2023. "Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 125-142, January.
    80. Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2024. "Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Impacts: Insights for Canadian Policy," CIRANO Working Papers 2024s-03, CIRANO.
    81. Cafiso, Gianluca & Missale, Alessandro & Rivolta, Giulia, 2025. "The credit channel of the sovereign spread: A Bayesian SVAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    82. Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2022. "Monetary policy, financial shocks and economic activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 429-456, August.
    83. Nicholas Fawcett & Lena Koerber & Riccardo Masolo & Matthew Waldron, 2015. "Evaluating UK point and density forecasts from an estimated DSGE model: the role of off-model information over the financial crisis," Bank of England working papers 538, Bank of England.
    84. Ángel Estrada & Luis Guirola & Iván Kataryniuk & Jaime Martínez-Martín, 2020. "The use of BVARs in the analysis of emerging economies," Occasional Papers 2001, Banco de España.
    85. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph T. McGillicuddy, 2019. "An empirical investigation of direct and iterated multistep conditional forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 181-204, March.
    86. Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have standard VARs remained stable since the crisis?," Working Paper 2014/13, Norges Bank.
    87. Ankargren, Sebastian & Jonéus, Paulina, 2021. "Simulation smoothing for nowcasting with large mixed-frequency VARs," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 97-113.
    88. Misha van Beek, 2020. "Consistent Calibration of Economic Scenario Generators: The Case for Conditional Simulation," Papers 2004.09042, arXiv.org.
    89. Petrella, Ivan & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2018. "Structural Scenario Analysis with SVARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    90. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    91. Sakai Ando & Taehoon Kim, 2024. "Systematizing Macroframework Forecasting: High-Dimensional Conditional Forecasting with Accounting Identities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(4), pages 1386-1410, December.
    92. Liudmila Kitrar & Tamara Lipkind & Georgy Ostapkovich, 2020. "The Performance Of Business And Consumer Sentiment For Early Estimates Of Gdp Growth: Old Turning Points And New Challenges Of The Corona Crisis," HSE Working papers WP BRP 110/STI/2020, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    93. Conti, Antonio M., 2017. "Has the FED Fallen behind the Curve? Evidence from VAR models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 164-168.
    94. Joshua C. C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2020. "Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 692-711, September.
    95. Deryugina, Elena & Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2014. "A large Bayesian vector autoregression model for Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    96. Hajer Ben Romdhane & Nahed Ben Tanfous, 2017. "Conditional FAVAR and scenario analysis for a large data: case of Tunisia," IHEID Working Papers 15-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
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  11. Michele Modugno & Lucrezia Reichlin & Domenico Giannone & Marta Banbura, 2012. "Nowcasting with Daily Data," 2012 Meeting Papers 555, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "Forecasting and policy making," IMFS Working Paper Series 62, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    2. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
    3. Bragoli, Daniela, 2017. "Now-casting the Japanese economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-402.
    4. Davor Kunovac & Borna Špalat, 2014. "Nowcasting GDP Using Available Monthly Indicators," Working Papers 39, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    5. Hecq, A.W. & Götz, T.B. & Urbain, J.R.Y.J., 2012. "Real-time forecast density combinations (forecasting US GDP growth using mixed-frequency data)," Research Memorandum 021, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    6. Park, Sungjun & Kim, Jinsoo, 2018. "The effect of interest in renewable energy on US household electricity consumption: An analysis using Google Trends data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1004-1010.
    7. Laurent Ferrara & Anna Simoni, 2019. "When are Google data useful to nowcast GDP? An approach via pre-selection and shrinkage," Working Papers 2019-04, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.

  12. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Banbura, Marta, 2012. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," CEPR Discussion Papers 9112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Economics Working Papers ECO2013/02, European University Institute.
    2. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 2471, European Central Bank.
    3. Krüger, Fabian & Nolte, Ingmar, 2016. "Disagreement versus uncertainty: Evidence from distribution forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 172-186.
    4. Miroslav Klucik, 2019. "Tracking the Course of the Economy (Nowcasting of basic macroeconomic indicators of Slovakia)," Working Papers Working Paper No. 1/2019, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    5. Nikoleta Anesti & Ana Galvão & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2018. "Uncertain Kingdom: nowcasting GDP and its revisions," Bank of England working papers 764, Bank of England.
    6. Gani Ramadani & Magdalena Petrovska & Vesna Bucevska, 2021. "Evaluation of mixed frequency approaches for tracking near-term economic developments in North Macedonia," Working Papers 2021-03, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    7. Longo, Luigi & Riccaboni, Massimo & Rungi, Armando, 2022. "A neural network ensemble approach for GDP forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    8. Martyna Marczak & Víctor Gómez, 2017. "Monthly US business cycle indicators: a new multivariate approach based on a band-pass filter," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1379-1408, June.
    9. Grant Allan & Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & Paul Smith, 2014. "Nowcasting Scottish GDP growth," Working Papers 1411, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    10. Caruso, Alberto, 2018. "Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 160-168.
    11. Galina Potjagailo & Maik H Wolters, 2020. "Global financial cycles since 1880," Bank of England working papers 867, Bank of England.
    12. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
    13. Venetia Bell & Lai Wah Co & Sophie Stone & gavin` Wallis, 2014. "Nowcasting UK GDP growth," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(1), pages 58-68.
    14. Eguren-Martin, Fernando & O’Neill, Cian & Sokol, Andrej & Berge, Lukas von dem, 2021. "Capital flows-at-risk: push, pull and the role of policy," Working Paper Series 2538, European Central Bank.
    15. Cristea, R. G., 2020. "Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20108, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Babii, Andrii & Ghysels, Eric & Striaukas, Jonas, 2021. "Machine Learning Time Series Regressions With an Application to Nowcasting," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2021004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    17. Ballarin, Giovanni & Dellaportas, Petros & Grigoryeva, Lyudmila & Hirt, Marcel & van Huellen, Sophie & Ortega, Juan-Pablo, 2024. "Reservoir computing for macroeconomic forecasting with mixed-frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1206-1237.
    18. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
    19. Jinjing Li & Yogi Vidyattama & Hai Anh La & Riyana Miranti & Denisa M Sologon, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 and Policy Responses on Australian Income Distribution and Poverty," Papers 2009.04037, arXiv.org.
    20. Chan, Joshua C.C., 2023. "Comparing stochastic volatility specifications for large Bayesian VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1419-1446.
    21. Klaus Friesenbichler & Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl & Philipp Wegmüller, 2018. "Ein neues Modell für die kurzfristige Prognose der Herstellung von Waren und der Ausrüstungsinvestitionen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 91(9), pages 651-661, September.
    22. Daniel Baquero & Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2018. "A Nowcasting Model for the Growth Rate of Real GDP of Ecuador : Implementing a Time-Varying Intercept," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    163. Andreini, Paolo & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Senftleben-König, Charlotte & Strohsal, Till, 2023. "Nowcasting German GDP: Foreign factors, financial markets, and model averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 298-313.
    164. Maaß, Christina Heike, 2021. "Nowcast als Forecast: Neue Verfahren der BIP-Prognose in Echtzeit," Edition HWWI: Chapters, in: Straubhaar, Thomas (ed.), Neuvermessung der Datenökonomie, volume 6, pages 101-127, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    165. Tóth, Peter, 2017. "Nowcasting Slovak GDP by a Small Dynamic Factor Model," MPRA Paper 77245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    166. Sergiy Nikolaychuk & Yurii Sholomytskyi, 2015. "Using Macroeconomic Models for Monetary Policy in Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 233, pages 54-64.
    167. Linton, Oliver B. & Tang, Haihan & Wu, Jianbin, 2025. "A large confirmatory dynamic factor model for stock market returns in different time zones," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PB).
    168. Paul Labonne, 2020. "Asymmetric uncertainty : Nowcasting using skewness in real-time data," Papers 2012.02601, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    169. Monica Defend & Aleksey Min & Lorenzo Portelli & Franz Ramsauer & Francesco Sandrini & Rudi Zagst, 2021. "Quantifying Drivers of Forecasted Returns Using Approximate Dynamic Factor Models for Mixed-Frequency Panel Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, February.
    170. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia, 2014. "Markov-Switching Mixed-Frequency VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9815, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    171. Serena Ng & Susannah Scanlan, 2023. "Constructing High Frequency Economic Indicators by Imputation," Papers 2303.01863, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    172. Wichitaksorn, Nuttanan, 2022. "Analyzing and forecasting Thai macroeconomic data using mixed-frequency approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    173. Matteo Luciani & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi & Giovanni Veronese, 2018. "Nowcasting Indonesia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 597-619, September.
    174. Matías Brum & Mauricio de Rosa, 2020. "Too little but not too late. Nowcasting poverty and cash transfers' incidence in Uruguay during COVID-19's crisis," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 20-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    175. Andreas Joseph & Eleni Kalamara & George Kapetanios & Galina Potjagailo & Chiranjit Chakraborty, 2021. "Forecasting UK inflation bottom up," Bank of England working papers 915, Bank of England.
    176. Katja Heinisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2018. "Bottom-up or direct? Forecasting German GDP in a data-rich environment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 705-745, March.
    177. Chikamatsu, Kyosuke & Hirakata, Naohisa & Kido, Yosuke & Otaka, Kazuki, 2021. "Mixed-frequency approaches to nowcasting GDP: An application to Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    178. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2020. "Forecasts with Bayesian vector autoregressions under real time conditions," Papers 2004.04984, arXiv.org.
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    182. Emilio Blanco & Fiorella Dogliolo & Lorena Garegnani, 2022. "Nowcasting during the Pandemic: Lessons from Argentina," BCRA Working Paper Series 202299, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    183. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Nowcasting using news topics Big Data versus big bank," Working Papers No 6/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
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    Cited by:

    1. Baris Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2017. "Nowcasting The New Turkish Gdp," Working Papers 1702, The Center for Financial Studies (CEFIS), Istanbul Bilgi University.
    2. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Economics Working Papers ECO2013/02, European University Institute.
    3. Evren Erdogan Cosar & Sevim Kosem & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "Do We Really Need Filters In Estimating Output Gap? : Evidence From Turkey," Working Papers 1333, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2013. "The Global Financial Crisis: An Anatomy of Global Growth," IMF Working Papers 2013/076, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Maria A. Arias & Charles S. Gascon & David E. Rapach, 2014. "Metro Business Cycles," Working Papers 2014-46, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Florian Eckert & Philipp Kronenberg & Heiner Mikosch & Stefan Neuwirth, 2025. "Tracking Economic Activity With Alternative High‐Frequency Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 270-290, April.
    7. C. Thubin & Thomas Ferrière & Eric Monnet & Magali Marx & Vichett Oung, 2016. "The PRISME model: can disaggregation on the production side help to forecast GDP?," Working papers 596, Banque de France.
    8. Miranda Gualdrón, Karen Alejandra & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2021. "Dynamic factor models: does the specification matter?," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 32210, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    9. Raïsa Basselier & David Antonio Liedo & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact of Qualitative Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, April.
    10. Nikoleta Anesti & Ana Galvão & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2018. "Uncertain Kingdom: nowcasting GDP and its revisions," Bank of England working papers 764, Bank of England.
    11. Caruso, Alberto, 2018. "Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 160-168.
    12. Florian Eckert & Nina Mühlebach, 2021. "Global and Local Components of Output Gaps," KOF Working papers 21-497, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    13. Cristea, R. G., 2020. "Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20108, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Kerry Loaiza-Marín, 2022. "Nowcasting the Costa Rican Quarterly Output Growth," Documentos de Trabajo 2107, Banco Central de Costa Rica.
    15. Ballarin, Giovanni & Dellaportas, Petros & Grigoryeva, Lyudmila & Hirt, Marcel & van Huellen, Sophie & Ortega, Juan-Pablo, 2024. "Reservoir computing for macroeconomic forecasting with mixed-frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1206-1237.
    16. André Nunes Maranhão, 2024. "Brazilian Business Cycle Analysis in a High-Dimensional and Time-Irregular Span Context," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 20(1), pages 1-58, August.
    17. Ali B. Barlas & Seda Guler Mert & Berk Orkun Isa & Alvaro Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo & Baris Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2024. "Big data financial transactions and GDP nowcasting: The case of Turkey," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 227-248, March.
    18. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2015. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Sivec, Vasja, 2016. "Monetary, fiscal and oil shocks: Evidence based on mixed frequency structural FAVARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 335-348.
    20. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
    21. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Cheng, 2022. "Boosting tax revenues with mixed-frequency data in the aftermath of COVID-19: The case of New York," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 545-566.
    22. Yifei Lyu & Jun Nie & Shu-Kuei X. Yang, 2020. "Forecasting U.S. Economic Growth in Downturns Using Cross-Country Data," Research Working Paper RWP 20-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    23. Sofiane Aboura & Björn van Roye, 2017. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: An application to France," Working Papers hal-01526393, HAL.
    24. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2023. "Real-time density nowcasts of US inflation: A model combination approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1736-1760.
    25. Alberto Caruso & Laura Coroneo, 2023. "Does Real‐Time Macroeconomic Information Help to Predict Interest Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2027-2059, December.
    26. Banbura, Marta & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2011. "A look into the factor model black box: Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 333-346, April.
    27. Daniel Baquero & Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2018. "A Nowcasting Model for the Growth Rate of Real GDP of Ecuador : Implementing a Time-Varying Intercept," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    28. Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting inflation using high frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 664-675.
    29. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2023. "Global financial uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 432-449, April.
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    32. Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Marek Rusnák, 2016. "Forecasting Czech GDP Using Mixed-Frequency Data Models," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(2), pages 165-185, December.
    33. Nikoleta Anesti & Ana Beatriz Galvão & Silvia Miranda‐Agrippino, 2022. "Uncertain Kingdom: Nowcasting Gross Domestic Product and its revisions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 42-62, January.
    34. Kaufmann, Daniel & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 878-893.
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    37. Alain Galli & Christian Hepenstrick & Rolf Scheufele, 2017. "Mixed-frequency models for tracking short-term economic developments in Switzerland," Working Papers 2017-02, Swiss National Bank.
    38. Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. Alberto Caruso, 2015. "Nowcasting Mexican GDP," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-40, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    40. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-152/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    41. Łukasz Lenart & Agnieszka Leszczyńska-Paczesna, 2016. "Do market prices improve the accuracy of inflation forecasting in Poland? A disaggregated approach," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(5), pages 365-394.
    42. Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2023. "Nowcasting GDP with a pool of factor models and a fast estimation algorithm," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1460-1476.
    43. André Nunes Maranhão & Nicole Rennó Castro, 2023. "Dissecting Brazilian agriculture business cycles in high-dimensional and time-irregular span contexts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1543-1578, October.
    44. Alejandro Steven Fonseca-Zendejas & Carmen Borrego-Salcido & M. Carmen Delgado, 2025. "Internal migration in Spain: identifying key drivers for forecasting," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 74(2), pages 1-23, June.
    45. Lombardi, Marco J. & Godbout, Claudia, 2012. "Short-term forecasting of the Japanese economy using factor models," Working Paper Series 1428, European Central Bank.
    46. Qian Wei & Heng-Guo Zhang, 2025. "An Adaptive Evolutionary Causal Dynamic Factor Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-25, June.
    47. Ilkin Huseynov & Nazrin Ramazanova & Hikmat Valirzayev, 2022. "Using National Payment System Data to Nowcast Economic Activity in Azerbaijan," IHEID Working Papers 23-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    48. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2021. "Global Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 8885, CESifo.
    49. Alvarez, Rocio & Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2016. "Aggregate versus disaggregate information in dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 680-694.
    50. Chiara Scotti, 2013. "Surprise and uncertainty indexes: real-time aggregation of real-activity macro surprises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1093, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    51. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Alexey Khazanov & Molin Zhong, 2023. "Financial and Macroeconomic Data Through the Lens of a Nonlinear Dynamic Factor Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    52. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    53. Raquel Nadal Cesar Gonçalves, 2022. "Nowcasting Brazilian GDP with Electronic Payments Data," Working Papers Series 564, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    54. Hagher Ben Rhomdhane & Brahim Mehdi Benlallouna, 2022. "Nowcasting real GDP in Tunisia using large datasets and mixed-frequency models," IHEID Working Papers 02-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    55. Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2017. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian GDP Growth," Staff Working Papers 17-2, Bank of Canada.
    56. Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & de Winter, Jasper, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting economic growth in the euro area using factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1284-1305.
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    58. Jeremy Bejarano, 2023. "The Transition to Alternative Reference Rates in the OFR Financial Stress Index," Working Papers 23-07, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
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    62. Alberto Caruso, 2018. "Macroeconomic News and Market Reaction: Surprise Indexes meet Nowcasting," Working Papers ECARES 2018-06, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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    65. Robert Lehmann & Magnus Reif & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2020. "ifoCAST: Der neue Prognosestandard des ifo Instituts," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(11), pages 31-39, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Havrlant & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2016. "On the optimal number of indicators – nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 54-72.
    2. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner & Marcel Tirpák & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2015. "Bridging the information gap: small-scale nowcasting models of GDP growth for selected CESEE countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 56-75.
    3. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.

  15. Angelini, Elena & Rünstler, Gerhard & Bańbura, Marta, 2008. "Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model," Working Paper Series 953, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65, July.
    2. Valentina Aprigliano & Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Simone Emiliozzi & Marco Flaccadoro & Sabina Marchetti & Stefania Villa, 2021. "Forecasting Italian GDP growth with epidemiological data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 664, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Cristea, R. G., 2020. "Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20108, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Gian Luigi Mazzi & James Mitchell & Gaetana Montana, 2014. "Density Nowcasts and Model Combination: Nowcasting Euro-Area GDP Growth over the 2008–09 Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 233-256, April.
    5. Banbura, Marta & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2011. "A look into the factor model black box: Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 333-346, April.
    6. Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting inflation using high frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 664-675.
    7. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark, 2011. "Dynamic Factor Models," Scholarly Articles 28469541, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    8. K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze & G. Rünstler, 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets – A pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working Paper Research 133, National Bank of Belgium.
    9. Tretyakov, Dmitriy & Fokin, Nikita, 2020. "Помогают Ли Высокочастотные Данные В Прогнозировании Российской Инфляции? [Does the high-frequency data is helpful for forecasting Russian inflation?]," MPRA Paper 109556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Diana Ricciulli-Marín & Jaime Bonet-Morón & Paula Barrios, 2021. "Reglas fiscales subnacionales en Colombia: desde su concepción hasta los resultados frente al COVID-19," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 297, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Alain Kabundi & Elmarie Nel & Franz Ruch, 2016. "Nowcasting Real GDP growth in South Africa," Working Papers 7068, South African Reserve Bank.
    12. Lombardi, Marco J. & Godbout, Claudia, 2012. "Short-term forecasting of the Japanese economy using factor models," Working Paper Series 1428, European Central Bank.
    13. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Forecasting gross value-added at the regional level: Are sectoral disaggregated predictions superior to direct ones?," ifo Working Paper Series 171, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    14. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Anastasia Mogilat & Oleg Kryzhanovskiy & Zhanna Shuvalova & Yaroslav Murashov, 2024. "DYFARUS: Dynamic Factor Model to Forecast GDP by Output Using Input-Output Tables," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(2), pages 3-25, June.
    16. Hanan Naser, 2015. "Estimating and forecasting Bahrain quarterly GDP growth using simple regression and factor-based methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 449-479, September.
    17. Karen Poghosyan & Ruben Poghosyan, 2021. "On the applicability of dynamic factor models for forecasting real GDP growth in Armenia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 61, pages 28-46.
    18. Rusnák, Marek, 2016. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in real time," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-39.
    19. Robert Lehmann, 2015. "Survey-based indicators vs. hard data: What improves export forecasts in Europe?," ERSA conference papers ersa15p756, European Regional Science Association.
    20. Pavel Vidal Alejandro & Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & Johana Sanabria Dominguez & Jaime Andres Collazos Rodríguez, 2015. "Indicador mensual de actividad económica (IMAE) para el Valle del Cauca," Borradores de Economia 900, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    21. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013. "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 195-237, Elsevier.
    22. Muriel Nguiffo-Boyom, 2014. "2007-2013: This is what the indicator told us ? Evaluating the performance of real-time nowcasts from a dynamic factor model," BCL working papers 88, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    23. Michele Modugno & Bariş Soybilgen & M. Ege Yazgan, 2016. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Knut Aastveit & Tørres Trovik, 2012. "Nowcasting norwegian GDP: the role of asset prices in a small open economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 95-119, February.
    25. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
    26. Siliverstovs Boriss & Kholodilin Konstantin A., 2012. "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(4), pages 429-444, August.
    27. Daniela Bobeva, 2021. "Nominal, Structural and Real Convergence of the EU Candidate Countries’ Economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(3), pages 59-78.
    28. Abdić Ademir & Resić Emina & Abdić Adem, 2020. "Modelling and forecasting GDP using factor model: An empirical study from Bosnia and Herzegovina," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 6(1), pages 10-26, May.
    29. Abdić Ademir & Resić Emina & Abdić Adem & Rovčanin Adnan, 2020. "Nowcasting GDP of Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Comparison of Forecast Accuracy Models," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 15(2), pages 1-14, December.
    30. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    31. Gabe J. Bondt, 2019. "A PMI-Based Real GDP Tracker for the Euro Area," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(2), pages 147-170, December.
    32. Schumacher Christian, 2011. "Forecasting with Factor Models Estimated on Large Datasets: A Review of the Recent Literature and Evidence for German GDP," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 28-49, February.
    33. Pablo Duarte & Bernd Süssmuth, 2014. "Robust Implementation of a Parsimonious Dynamic Factor Model to Nowcast GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 4574, CESifo.
    34. Rueben Ellul, 2016. "A real-time measure of business conditions in Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    35. Hyun Hak Kim, 2013. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Data Dimension Reduction Methods: The Case of Korea," Working Papers 2013-26, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    36. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    37. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    38. Alexander Chudik & Valerie Grossman & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs," Globalization Institute Working Papers 213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    39. George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2018. "Big Data & Macroeconomic Nowcasting: Methodological Review," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-12, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    40. Behrens, Christoph, 2019. "Evaluating the Joint Efficiency of German Trade Forecasts. A nonparametric multivariate approach," Working Papers 9, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    41. Christoph Behrens, 2019. "A Nonparametric Evaluation of the Optimality of German Export and Import Growth Forecasts under Flexible Loss," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-23, September.
    42. Martina Hengge & Seton Leonard, 2017. "Factor Models for Non-Stationary Series: Estimates of Monthly U.S. GDP," IHEID Working Papers 13-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    43. Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & Jaime Andr�s Collazos-Rodr�guez & Johana Sanabria-Dom�nguez & Pavel Vidal-Alejandro, 2017. "La construcción de indicadores de la actividad económica: una revisión bibliográfica," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 36(64), pages 79-107.
    44. Katja Heinisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2018. "Bottom-up or direct? Forecasting German GDP in a data-rich environment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 705-745, March.
    45. Antonio José Orozco-Gallo & Pavel Vidal-Alejandro & Johana Sanabria-Domínguez & Jaime Andrés Collazos-Rodríguez, 2021. "Indicador coincidente de actividad económica en la recesión pandémica: el caso del Caribe colombiano," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 298, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    46. Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2011. "A Dynamic Factor Model for World Trade Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 874, OECD Publishing.

  16. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 966, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Lombardi, Marco J. & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2010. "Global commodity cycles and linkages a FAVAR approach," Working Paper Series 1170, European Central Bank.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
    3. Kilian, Lutz & Lewis, Logan, 2009. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Öğünç, Fethi & Akdoğan, Kurmaş & Başer, Selen & Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Ertuğ, Dilara & Hülagü, Timur & Kösem, Sevim & Özmen, Mustafa Utku & Tekatlı, Necati, 2013. "Short-term inflation forecasting models for Turkey and a forecast combination analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 312-325.
    5. Colin Bermingham & Antonello D’Agostino, 2014. "Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 765-788, March.
    6. BELMONTE, Miguel A.G. & KOOP, Gary & KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011. "Hierarchical shrinkage in time-varying parameter models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011036, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    7. Cubadda, Gianluca & Guardabascio, Barbara, 2012. "A medium-N approach to macroeconomic forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1099-1105.
    8. Lucrezia Reichlin, 2009. "Comment on "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission Mechanism?"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 127-139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2009. "A comparision of forecast, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," CAMA Working Papers 2009-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Mampho Modise, 2010. "Has the SARB become more effective post inflation targeting?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 187-204, August.
    11. Francesca Monti, 2015. "Can a data-rich environment help identify the sources of model misspecification?," Discussion Papers 1505, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    12. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2021. "Can Machine Learning Catch the COVID-19 Recession?," CIRANO Working Papers 2021s-09, CIRANO.
    13. Bork, Lasse, 2009. "Estimating US Monetary Policy Shocks Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression: An EM Algorithm Approach," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2009-03, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    14. Patrick C. Higgins, 2014. "GDPNow: A Model for GDP \"Nowcasting\"," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    15. Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Rozhkova & Sergei Seleznev, 2017. "Macro-financial linkages: the role of liquidity dependence," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps24, Bank of Russia.
    16. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Macroeconomics, finance, commodities: Interactions with carbon markets in a data-rich model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 557-567, January.
    17. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2009. "Business cycles in the euro area," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 5-7.
    18. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2016. "Structural analysis with Multivariate Autoregressive Index models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 332-348.
    19. Sarah Drought & Chris McDonald, 2011. "Forecasting house price inflation: a model combination approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    20. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2009. "The local effects of monetary policy," Working Papers 2009-048, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    21. Mirriam Chitalu Chama-Chiliba & Rangan Gupta & Nonophile Nkambule & Naomi Tlotlego, 2011. "Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Variables of the South African Economy Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Working Papers 201132, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    22. Ahlem DAHEM, 2016. "Short-Term Bayesian Inflation Forecasting For Tunisia: Some Empirical Evidence," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 5(1), pages 1-47, January.
    23. Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2010. "Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: a large BVAR for New Zealand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 537-558, October.
    24. Bilge Erten, 2012. "Macroeconomic transmission of eurozone shocks to emerging economies," Working Papers 2012-12, CEPII research center.
    25. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    26. Gary Koop, 2010. "Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper series 43_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    27. Tim Oliver Berg & Steffen Henzel, 2013. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Many Predictors: Are Large BVARs Really Superior?," ifo Working Paper Series 155, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    28. Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2013. "Real-Time Forecasting with a Mixed-Frequency VAR," NBER Working Papers 19712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Daphné Momferatu & Luca Onorante, 2010. "Short-term inflation projections: a Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-011, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    30. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Banbura, Marta, 2012. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," CEPR Discussion Papers 9112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Kirstin Hubrich & Frauke Skudelny, 2016. "Forecast Combination for Euro Area Inflation - A Cure in Times of Crisis?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 1210, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    33. Buera, Francisco & Primiceri, Giorgio & Monge-Naranjo, Alexander, 2010. "Learning the Wealth of Nations," CEPR Discussion Papers 8030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    34. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2011. "Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecast Accuracy," CEPR Discussion Papers 8273, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    35. Ansgar Belke & Thomas Osowski, 2019. "International Effects Of Euro Area Versus U.S. Policy Uncertainty: A Favar Approach," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 453-481, January.
    36. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2009. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    37. Pažický Martin, 2021. "Oil price shock in the US and the euro area – evidence from the shadow rate and the term premium," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 21(3), pages 309-346, September.
    38. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 39-76, December.
    39. Lucia Alessi & Carsten Detken, 2009. "Global liquidity as an early warning indicator for asset price boom/bust cycles," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 7-9.
    40. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta, 2010. "Nowcasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 7883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    41. Dahem, Ahlem, 2015. "Short term Bayesian inflation forecasting for Tunisia," MPRA Paper 66702, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Ching Wai Chiu & Bjorn Eraker & Andrew T. Foerster & Tae Bong Kim & Hernan D. Seoane, 2011. "Estimating VAR's sampled at mixed or irregular spaced frequencies : a Bayesian approach," Research Working Paper RWP 11-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    43. Wang,Dieter & Andree,Bo Pieter Johannes & Chamorro Elizondo,Andres Fernando & Spencer,Phoebe Girouard, 2020. "Stochastic Modeling of Food Insecurity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9413, The World Bank.
    44. Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.
    45. Kemal Bagzibagli, 2014. "Monetary transmission mechanism and time variation in the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 781-823, November.
    46. MAMATZAKIS, emmanuel & MAMATZAKIS, E, 2022. "Understanding the impact of travel on wellbeing: evidence for Great Britain during the pandemic," MPRA Paper 112974, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    47. Chai, Jian & Guo, Ju-E. & Meng, Lei & Wang, Shou-Yang, 2011. "Exploring the core factors and its dynamic effects on oil price: An application on path analysis and BVAR-TVP model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8022-8036.
    48. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio E., 2012. "Prior selection for vector autoregressions," Working Paper Series 1494, European Central Bank.
    49. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. Domenico Giannone & Francesca Monti & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2014. "Exploiting the monthly data-flow in structural forecasting," Discussion Papers 1416, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    51. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    52. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2020. "Bayesian State Space Models in Macroeconometrics," CAMA Working Papers 2020-90, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    53. Ms. Adina Popescu & Ms. Alina Carare, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary: Results from a Large Bayesian VAR," IMF Working Papers 2011/259, International Monetary Fund.
    54. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model," Working papers 2009-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    55. Alain KABUNDI & Rangan GUPTA, 2009. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on House Price Inflation: A Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) Approach," EcoMod2009 21500048, EcoMod.
    56. Ms. Hélène Poirson & Mr. Sebastian Weber, 2011. "Growth Spillover Dynamics From Crisis to Recovery," IMF Working Papers 2011/218, International Monetary Fund.
    57. Christian Glocker & Pascal Towbin, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Reserve Requirements," Working papers 374, Banque de France.
    58. Wang, Dieter & Andrée, Bo Pieter Johannes & Chamorro, Andres Fernando & Spencer, Phoebe Girouard, 2022. "Transitions into and out of food insecurity: A probabilistic approach with panel data evidence from 15 countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    59. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "The ECB and the Interbank Market," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-005, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    60. Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Dylan van Wyk, 2010. "Financial Market Liberalization, Monetary Policy, and Housing Price Dynamics," Working papers 2010-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    61. David Marqués Ibañez, 2009. "Banks, credit and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 2-4.
    62. Marina Delmondes de Carvalho & José Luiz Rossi Júnior, 2010. "Identification of monetary policy shocks and its effects: FAVAR methodology for the Brazilian economy," Business and Economics Working Papers 106, Unidade de Negocios e Economia, Insper.
    63. Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2011. "New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time," IMF Working Papers 2011/043, International Monetary Fund.
    64. Birmingham, Colin & Conefrey, Thomas, 2011. "The Irish Macroeconomic Response to an External Shock with an Application to Stress Testing," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
    65. D. Tutberidze & D. Japaridze, 2017. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Approach," Вестник Киевского национального университета имени Тараса Шевченко. Экономика., Socionet;Киевский национальный университет имени Тараса Шевченко, vol. 2(191), pages 42-49.
    66. Lance Kent, 2014. "Bilateral Linkages and the International Transmission of Business Cycles," Working Papers 149, Economics Department, William & Mary.
    67. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Pill, Huw & Lenza, Michele, 2010. "Monetary policy in exceptional times," CEPR Discussion Papers 7669, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    68. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 20125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    69. Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2014. "Financial Frictions in Data: Evidence and Impact," IMF Working Papers 2014/238, International Monetary Fund.
    70. Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Forecasting with Dynamic Models using Shrinkage-based Estimation," Working Papers 635, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    71. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    72. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Pill, Huw & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2010. "Non-standard Monetary Policy Measures and Monetary Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 8125, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  17. Rünstler, Gerhard & Bańbura, Marta, 2007. "A look into the factor model black box: publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," Working Paper Series 751, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Maurin, Laurent & Drechsel, Katja, 2008. "Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity," Working Paper Series 925, European Central Bank.
    2. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Economics Working Papers ECO2013/02, European University Institute.
    3. Oguzhan Cepni & I. Ethem Guney & Norman R. Swanson, 2020. "Forecasting and nowcasting emerging market GDP growth rates: The role of latent global economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic data surprise factors," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 18-36, January.
    4. Evren Erdogan Cosar & Sevim Kosem & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "Do We Really Need Filters In Estimating Output Gap? : Evidence From Turkey," Working Papers 1333, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Lamprou, Dimitra, 2016. "Nowcasting GDP in Greece: The impact of data revisions and forecast origin on model selection and performance," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 93-102.
    7. Antipa, Pamfili & Barhoumi, Karim & Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 864-878.
    8. Germán López, 2015. "Forecast Accuracy of Small and Large Scale Dynamic Factor Models in Developing Economies," Working Papers. Serie AD 2015-03, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    9. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Liting Su, 2016. "Nowcasting Nominal GDP with the Credit-Card Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201605, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2016.
    10. C. Thubin & Thomas Ferrière & Eric Monnet & Magali Marx & Vichett Oung, 2016. "The PRISME model: can disaggregation on the production side help to forecast GDP?," Working papers 596, Banque de France.
    11. Ballarin, Giovanni & Dellaportas, Petros & Grigoryeva, Lyudmila & Hirt, Marcel & van Huellen, Sophie & Ortega, Juan-Pablo, 2024. "Reservoir computing for macroeconomic forecasting with mixed-frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1206-1237.
    12. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP1," Working Papers 333, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    13. Wanbo Lu & Yifu Wang & Xingjian Zhang, 2023. "Which news topics drive economic prosperity in China?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(10), pages 1-23, October.
    14. Catherine Doz & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Post-Print hal-00844811, HAL.
    15. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2012. "More is not always better : back to the Kalman filter in dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws122317, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    16. Kaufmann, Daniel & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 878-893.
    17. Alain Galli & Christian Hepenstrick & Rolf Scheufele, 2017. "Mixed-frequency models for tracking short-term economic developments in Switzerland," Working Papers 2017-02, Swiss National Bank.
    18. K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze & G. Rünstler, 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets – A pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working Paper Research 133, National Bank of Belgium.
    19. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-152/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Cepni, Oguzhan & Güney, I. Ethem & Swanson, Norman R., 2019. "Nowcasting and forecasting GDP in emerging markets using global financial and macroeconomic diffusion indexes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 555-572.
    21. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2015. "Looking into the Black Box of Boosting: The Case of Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 5686, CESifo.
    22. Juan G Brida & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Lucia I Rosich, 2021. "On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1970-1982.
    23. Katja Drechsel & Rolf Scheufele, 2012. "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," Working Papers 2012-16, Swiss National Bank.
    24. Dennis Kant & Andreas Pick & Jasper de Winter, 2025. "Nowcasting GDP using machine learning methods," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 109(1), pages 1-24, March.
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    7. Lombardi, Marco J. & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2010. "Global commodity cycles and linkages a FAVAR approach," Working Paper Series 1170, European Central Bank.
    8. Gian Paulo Soave, 2023. "A panel threshold VAR with stochastic volatility-in-mean model: an application to the effects of financial and uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 397-431, January.
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    11. Mehmet Balcilar & NICO KATZKE & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Do Precious Metal Prices Help in Forecasting South African Inflation?," Working Papers 15-05, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    12. Masud Alam, 2021. "Heterogeneous Responses to the U.S. Narrative Tax Changes: Evidence from the U.S. States," Papers 2107.13678, arXiv.org.
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    17. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
    18. Kastner, Gregor, 2019. "Sparse Bayesian time-varying covariance estimation in many dimensions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 98-115.
    19. Andres–Escayola, Erik & Berganza, Juan Carlos & Campos, Rodolfo G. & Molina, Luis, 2023. "A BVAR toolkit to assess macrofinancial risks in Brazil and Mexico," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
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    21. Stelios D. Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2014. "Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model," Open Access publications 10197/7588, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
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    25. Gianluca Cafiso, 2022. "Loans to Different Groups and Economic Activity at Times of Crisis and Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 594-623, June.
    26. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Forecasting with High-Dimensional Panel VARs," MPRA Paper 84275, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Jan 2018.
    27. Georgios Georgiadis, 2016. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences in Spillover Estimates from Bilateral and Multilateral Multi-country Models," EcoMod2016 9145, EcoMod.
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    733. Tino Berger & Tore Dubbert, 2022. "Government spending effects on the business cycle in times of crisis," CQE Working Papers 10022, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
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Articles

  1. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2024. "Shocked to the core: a new model to understand euro area inflation," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 117.

    Cited by:

    1. Aldama, Pierre & Le Bihan, Hervé & Le Gall, Claire, 2025. "What caused the post-pandemic inflation in France? An analysis using the Bernanke–Blanchard model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

  2. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Bodnár, Katalin & Fagandini, Bruno & Healy, Peter & Paredes, Joan, 2023. "Underlying inflation measures: an analytical guide for the euro area," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 5.

    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Youcheng & Li, Bingchen & Zhao, Mengqi, 2025. "Asymmetric association between supply chain bottlenecks and consumer energy prices: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    2. Kamps, Christophe & Bussière, Matthieu & Niessner, Birgit & Tristani, Oreste & Christoffel, Kai & Kapadia, Sujit & Ferrero, Giuseppe & Gilbert, Niels & Vlassopoulos, Thomas & Motto, Roberto & Gerke, R, 2025. "Report on monetary policy tools, strategy and communication," Occasional Paper Series 372, European Central Bank.
    3. Martín Almuzara & Argia M. Sbordone, 2024. "Measurement and Theory of Core Inflation," Staff Reports 1115, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Nickel, Christiane & Kilponen, Juha & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Koester, Gerrit & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Enders, Almira & Holton, Sarah & Landau, Bettina & Venditti, Fabrizio & Bobeica, Elena & Brand, Cla, 2025. "A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.
    5. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.
    6. Aydin Yakut, Dilan, 2025. "Beyond Aggregates: A Dual Lens on Eurozone Trend Inflation," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/25, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Stefano Neri, 2024. "There has been an awakening. The rise (and fall) of inflation in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 834, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

  4. Bańbura, Marta & Saiz, Lorena, 2020. "Short-term forecasting of euro area economic activity at the ECB," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 2.

    Cited by:

    1. Bańbura, Marta & Belousova, Irina & Bodnár, Katalin & Tóth, Máté Barnabás, 2023. "Nowcasting employment in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2815, European Central Bank.
    2. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.

  5. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Marta Bańbura & Michele Modugno, 2014. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Factor Models On Datasets With Arbitrary Pattern Of Missing Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 133-160, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Banbura, Marta & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2011. "A look into the factor model black box: Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 333-346, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Elena Angelini & Marta Banbura & Gerhard Rünstler, 2010. "Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(1), pages 1-22.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    See citations under working paper version above.

Chapters

  1. Marta Bańbura & Michele Lenza & Joan Paredes, 2024. "Forecasting inflation in the US and in the euro area," Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 9, pages 218-245, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    Cited by:

    1. Bobeica, Elena & Holton, Sarah & Huber, Florian & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2025. "Beware of large shocks! A non-parametric structural inflation model," Working Paper Series 3052, European Central Bank.
    2. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Giammaria, Alessandro & Porqueddu, Mario & van Spronsen, Josha, 2025. "A new model to forecast energy inflation in the euro area," Working Paper Series 3062, European Central Bank.

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