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Underlying inflation measures: an analytical guide for the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Bańbura, Marta
  • Bobeica, Elena
  • Bodnár, Katalin
  • Fagandini, Bruno
  • Healy, Peter
  • Paredes, Joan

Abstract

This box describes some key measures of underlying inflation and reassesses their predictive power for euro area headline inflation over a medium-term horizon. It discusses recent developments in underlying inflation and implications for the inflation outlook. It examines how underlying inflation measures can be adjusted to filter out some of the recent extraordinary shocks to inflation. Lastly, it analyses goods and services inflation individually. JEL Classification: C52, E31, E52

Suggested Citation

  • Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Bodnár, Katalin & Fagandini, Bruno & Healy, Peter & Paredes, Joan, 2023. "Underlying inflation measures: an analytical guide for the euro area," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 5.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2023:0005:5
    Note: 810771
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2023/html/ecb.ebbox202305_05~84e89bcb5d.en.html
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.
    2. Stefano Neri, 2024. "There has been an awakening. The rise (and fall) of inflation in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 834, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    core inflation; inflation forecasting; Underlying inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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