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Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy

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  • Cristina Manteu
  • Sara Serra

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to review developments in a number of uncertainty measures for Portugal and gauge their impact on macroeconomic developments in recent years, particularly on GDP, private consumption and GFCF. Our analysis shows that elevated uncertainty had a significant negative impact on economic activity during the financial and sovereign debt crises, while the unwindinding of uncertainty associated with the conclusion of the economic and financial assistance programme in 2014 boosted the subsequent recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Manteu & Sara Serra, 2017. "Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy," Working Papers w201709, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201709
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    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/anexos/papers/wp201709.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. María Gil & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2017. "Macroeconomic uncertainty: measurement and impact on the Spanish economy," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España;Economic Bulletin Homepage, issue 1/2017.
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    8. Michael Donadelli, 2015. "Google search-based metrics, policy-related uncertainty and macroeconomic conditions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(10), pages 801-807, July.
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    10. M. E. Bontempi & R. Golinelli & M. Squadrani, 2016. "A New Index of Uncertainty Based on Internet Searches: A Friend or Foe of Other Indicators?," Working Papers wp1062, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
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    2. Cristina Manteu & Sara Serra, 2017. "Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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    4. Eduardo de Sa Fortes Leitao Rodrigues, 2023. "Uncertainty and the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the United States and Brasil: SVAR Approach," Working Papers 2023.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.

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