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Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Firm Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Fasani

    (Queen Mary University London)

  • Haroon Mumtaz

    (Queen Mary University London)

  • Lorenza Rossi

    (University of Pavia)

Abstract

This paper uses a FAVAR model with external instruments to show that the policy uncertainty shocks are recessionary and are associated with an increase in the exit of firms and a decrease in entry and in the stock price with total factor productivity rising in the medium run. To explain this result, we build scale DSGE module featuring firm heterogeneity and endogenous firm entry and exit. These features are crucial in matching the empirical responses. Versions of the model with constant firms or constant firms' exit are unable to re-produce the FAVAR response of firm' entry and exit and suggest a much smaller effect of this shock on real activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Fasani & Haroon Mumtaz & Lorenza Rossi, 2020. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Firm Dynamics," Working Papers 903, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:903
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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