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Bilateral Linkages and the International Transmission of Business Cycles

  • Lance Kent

    ()

    (Department of Economics, College of William and Mary)

This paper estimates the contributions of trade and financial linkages to the directed graph that describes the international propagation of macroeconomic shocks at the business cycle frequency. Among the findings: import and export intensity are asymmetrically associated with shock transmission; bilateral portfolio equity holdings are associated with comovement within the quarter but not between quarters; the import of goods used for capital formation is strongly associated with shock transmission both within and between quarters. The novel stylized facts refine the “trade-comovement” puzzle into the “trade-correlation” and the “trade-transmission puzzles, both of which are challenges for standard international business cycle models.

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File URL: http://economics.wm.edu/wp/cwm_wp149_rev1.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, College of William and Mary in its series Working Papers with number 149.

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Length: 57 pages
Date of creation: 15 Mar 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwm:wpaper:149
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  2. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2005. "Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?," Working Papers 05-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  8. James Yetman & Michael B. Devereux, 2010. "leverage constraints and the international transmission of shocks," 2010 Meeting Papers 1341, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  10. Hsu, Chih-Chiang & Wu, Jyun-Yi & Yau, Ruey, 2011. "Foreign direct investment and business cycle co-movements: The panel data evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 770-783.
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  19. Dees, S. & di Mauro, F. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V., 2005. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0518, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  20. Banbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Bayesian VARs with Large Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 6326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  26. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  27. Hughes Hallett, A. & Piscitelli, Laura, 2002. "Does trade integration cause convergence?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 165-170, April.
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