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Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Leichte Belebung der internationalen Konjunktur

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  • Schmidt, Torsten
  • Blagov, Boris
  • Döhrn, Roland
  • Grozea-Helmenstein, Daniela
  • Jäger, Philipp
  • Micheli, Martin
  • Rujin, Svetlana

Abstract

Die weltwirtschaftlichen Perspektiven haben sich seit Anfang dieses Jahres weiter aufgehellt. Insbesondere scheint sich die verstärkte Ausweitung des Welthandels, die sich gegen Ende 2016 angedeutet hatte, in den vergangenen Monaten fortgesetzt zu haben. In den fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften ging die Belebung des Außenhandels mit einem Anstieg der privaten Investitionen einher. Auch in den Schwellenländern dürfte die Belebung des Außenhandels in Verbindung mit der stärkeren Ausweitung der Industrieproduktion stehen. Zudem profitieren die Rohstoffe exportierenden Länder inzwischen wieder von steigenden Exporterlösen. Die Geldpolitik wird ihren Expansionsgrad trotz steigender Inflation und zunehmender Kapazitätsauslastung voraussichtlich nicht wesentlich verringern. Von der Finanzpolitik sind im Prognosezeitraum keine deutlichen Impulse für die realwirtschaftliche Entwicklung zu erwarten. Zwar gibt es in den USA Pläne, durch Steuersenkungen und höhere öffentliche Investitionen die gesamtwirtschaftliche Expansion zu stärken. Angesichts weitgehend ausgelasteter Kapazitäten dürften die realwirtschaftlichen Effekte allerdings gering sein...

Suggested Citation

  • Schmidt, Torsten & Blagov, Boris & Döhrn, Roland & Grozea-Helmenstein, Daniela & Jäger, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana, 2017. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Leichte Belebung der internationalen Konjunktur," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 68(1), pages 5-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwikon:156192
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 141-146, May.
    2. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    3. Atif Ansar & Bent Flyvbjerg & Alexander Budzier & Daniel Lunn, 2016. "Does infrastructure investment lead to economic growth or economic fragility? Evidence from China," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 32(3), pages 360-390.
    4. Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Schmidt, Torsten & Blagov, Boris & Döhrn, Roland & Grozea-Helmenstein, Daniela & Jäger, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana, 2016. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Stabilisierung der Konjunktur auf niedrigem Niveau," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 67(3), pages 5-24.
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    1. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Blagov, Boris & Fuest, Angela & Gebhardt, Heinz & Jäger, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana & Schmidt, Torsten, 2017. "Weiterhin gute Konjunktur," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 68(2), pages 5-15.

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