IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Financial Shocks and Economic Activity in the Netherlands

  • Peter Broer

    ()

  • Jürgen Antony

We analyse the effects of financial shocks on economic development in the euro area and the Netherlands in particular. We develop VAR models that take account of feedback loops between financial-market conditions and the real economy. These feedback loops operate via the aggregated euro-area level and affect the Dutch economy. Our empirical analysis is twofold as we analyse industry as well as GDP level data. Financial shocks are measured as shocks to corporate bond spreads and implied volatility. Bond-spread shocks are found to have direct consequences for real economic development, with a 25 basis points shock giving an effect on industrial production of -0.6% after one year, and -1.35% after four years. A pure volatility shock seems to imply only higher uncertainty about future developments. Applying these figures to the financial crisis of 2008 shows that the model under predicts the negative effects of the crisis.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cpb.nl/sites/default/files/publicaties/download/dp260-financial-shocks-and-economic-activity-netherlands.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its series CPB Discussion Paper with number 260.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Dec 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:260
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Postbus 80510, 2508 GM Den Haag

Phone: (070) 338 33 80
Fax: (070) 338 33 50
Web page: http://www.cpb.nl/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Ching Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Bjørn Eraker & Andrew T. Foerster & Tae Bong Kim & Hernán D. Seoane, 2011. "Estimating VAR's sampled at mixed or irregular spaced frequencies : a Bayesian approach," Research Working Paper RWP 11-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  2. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 1991. "The capital crunch: neither a borrower nor a lender be," Working Papers 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  3. John Van Reenen & Nick Bloom & Steve Bond, 2006. "Uncertainty and investment dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2645, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  4. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2003. "Excessive Dollar Debt: Financial Development and Underinsurance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 867-894, 04.
  5. Bacchetta, Philippe & Aghion, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "Financial Development and the Instability of Open Economies," Scholarly Articles 4554209, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye & Dale F. Gray & Natalia T. Tamirisa & Hiroko Oura & Qianying Chen, 2010. "International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress," IMF Working Papers 10/124, International Monetary Fund.
  7. John Geanakoplos & Ana Fostel, 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1211-44, September.
  8. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2000. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints," Working Papers 00.07, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  9. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, 05.
  10. Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2007. "Credit Traps and Credit Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 503-516, March.
  12. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2012. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," NBER Working Papers 18467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Silvia Sgherri & Alessandro Galesi, 2009. "Regional Financial Spillovers Across Europe; A Global VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 09/23, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Gourinchas, P.O. & Parker, J.A., 1997. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," Working papers 9722, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  15. Jushan Bai & Chihwa Kao & Serena Ng, 2007. "Panel Cointegration with Global Stochastic Trends," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 90, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  16. Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "Inefficient Credit Booms," NBER Working Papers 13639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & BRUCE C. PETERSEN, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
  18. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
  19. Fabio Fornari & Livio Stracca, 2012. "What does a financial shock do? First international evidence," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(71), pages 407-445, 07.
  20. Bussière, Matthieu & Chudik, Alexander & Mehl, Arnaud, 2011. "Does the euro make a difference? Spatio-temporal transmission of global shocks to real effective exchange rates in an infinite VAR," Working Paper Series 1292, European Central Bank.
  21. Thakor, Anjan V, 1996. " Capital Requirements, Monetary Policy, and Aggregate Bank Lending: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 279-324, March.
  22. Domenico Giannone & Martha Banbura & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Bayesian VARs with large panels," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13388, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  23. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2011. "How Do Credit Supply Shocks Propagate Internationally? A GVAR approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 8720, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Cagetti, Marco, 2003. "Wealth Accumulation over the Life Cycle and Precautionary Savings," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(3), pages 339-53, July.
  25. Albert S. Kyle, 2001. "Contagion as a Wealth Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1401-1440, 08.
  26. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
  27. Kalina Manova, 2008. "Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms, and International Trade," NBER Working Papers 14531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P., 2004. "Financial predictors of real activity and the financial accelerator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 167-172, February.
  29. Altunbas, Yener & Fazylov, Otabek & Molyneux, Philip, 2002. "Evidence on the bank lending channel in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 2093-2110, November.
  30. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  31. Boissay, Frédéric, 2006. "Credit chains and the propagation of financial distress," Working Paper Series 0573, European Central Bank.
  32. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  33. Jon Faust & Simon Gilchrist & Jonathan H. Wright & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit spreads as predictors of real-time economic activity: a Bayesian Model-Averaging approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  34. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.