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Dean Croushore

Citations

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Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Dean Croushore & Katherine Marsten, 2016. "Reassessing the Relative Power of the Yield Spread in Forecasting Recessions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 1183-1191, September.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Reassessing the Relative Power of the Yield Spread in Forecasting Recessions (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2016) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Dean Croushore & Simon van Norden, 2017. "Fiscal Surprises at the FOMC," CIRANO Working Papers 2017s-09, CIRANO.

    Cited by:

    1. Galbraith, John W. & van Norden, Simon, 2019. "Asymmetry in unemployment rate forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1613-1626.
    2. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2023. "Raiders of the lost high‐frequency forecasts: New data and evidence on the efficiency of the Fed's forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 88-104, January.
    3. Carola Conces Binder & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2024. "Central bank forecasting: A survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 342-364, April.
    4. Pascal Goemans & Robinson Kruse‐Becher, 2025. "Time‐Varying US Government Spending Anticipation in Real Time," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 867-880, April.
    5. Arai, Natsuki & Iizuka, Nobuo & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2024. "The efficiency of the Japanese government’s revenue projections," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    6. Arai, Natsuki, 2020. "Investigating the inefficiency of the CBO’s budgetary projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1290-1300.

  2. Dean Croushore & Simon van Norden, 2016. "Fiscal Forecasts at the FOMC: Evidence from the Greenbooks," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-17, CIRANO.

    Cited by:

    1. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2020. "Are official forecasts of output growth in the EU still biased? Evidence from stability and convergence programmes and the European Commission’s Spring forecasts," Papers WP681, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Carola Conces Binder & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2023. "Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey," Staff Working Papers 23-18, Bank of Canada.
    3. McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor & O'Shea, Dónal, 2024. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2024," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC2024WIN.
    4. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2020. "The (Pro-) Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the EU and Governments’ Expectations of Future Output Growth: New Evidence," Papers WP683, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2021. "Are official forecasts of output growth in the EU still biased?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 337-349.
    6. Jonathan J Adams & Philip Barrett, 2023. "Identifying News Shocks from Forecasts," Working Papers 001010, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
    7. Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin‐Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2020. "Introducing the Bank of Canada staff economic projections database," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 114-129, January.
    8. Galbraith, John W. & van Norden, Simon, 2019. "Asymmetry in unemployment rate forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1613-1626.
    9. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2023. "Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries: Undue optimism at a cost," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1113-1131.
    10. Tomás Marinozzi, 2023. "Forecasting Inflation in Argentina: A Probabilistic Approach," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(81), pages 81-110, May.
    11. Cronin, David & McGowan, Kieran, 2023. "Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries," Papers WP756, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    12. Kumar Verma, Akhilesh & McQuinn, Kieran, 2024. "Assessing expectations of European house prices," Papers WP783, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    13. David Cronin & Kieran McQuinn, 2021. "The (pro-) cyclicality of government consumption in the EU and official expectations of future output growth: new evidence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 331-345, May.
    14. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Alejandro M. Werner & Rene Zamarripa, 2021. "Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are They Optimistic?," IMF Working Papers 2021/154, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2023. "Raiders of the lost high‐frequency forecasts: New data and evidence on the efficiency of the Fed's forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 88-104, January.
    16. Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts," Staff Working Papers 18-52, Bank of Canada.
    17. Joan Paredes & Javier J. Pérez & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2023. "Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 472-492, June.
    18. Pascal Goemans & Robinson Kruse‐Becher, 2025. "Time‐Varying US Government Spending Anticipation in Real Time," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 867-880, April.
    19. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2017. "The transmission of monetary policy shocks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86163, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Arai, Natsuki & Iizuka, Nobuo & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2024. "The efficiency of the Japanese government’s revenue projections," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    21. Croushore, Dean & van Norden, Simon, 2019. "Fiscal Surprises at the FOMC," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1583-1595.
    22. Arai, Natsuki, 2020. "Investigating the inefficiency of the CBO’s budgetary projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1290-1300.

  3. Dean Croushore & Katherine Marsten, 2014. "The continuing power of the yield spread in forecasting recessions," Working Papers 14-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Weiling Liu & Emanuel Moench, 2014. "What predicts U.S. recessions?," Staff Reports 691, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

  4. Dean Croushore & Simon van Norden, 2014. "Fiscal policy: ex ante and ex post," Working Papers 14-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Schreger, Jesse, 2016. "Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?," Working Paper Series 16-021, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.

  5. Dean Croushore & Keith Sill, 2014. "Analyzing data revisions with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Working Papers 14-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2017. "Measurement errors and monetary policy: Then and now," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 66-78.
    2. Gregory E. Givens, 2017. "Do Data Revisions Matter for DSGE Estimation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(6), pages 1385-1407, September.
    3. Steven P. Cassou & C. Patrick Scott & Jesús Vázquez, 2018. "Optimal monetary policy revisited: does considering US real-time data change things?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(57), pages 6203-6219, December.
    4. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2017. "Data revisions and DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 215-232.
    5. Santiago Pinto & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Robert Sharp, 2020. "The Information Content and Statistical Properties of Diffusion Indexes," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(4), pages 47-99, September.

  6. Dean Croushore, 2012. "Forecast bias in two dimensions," Working Papers 12-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Katja Heinisch, 2025. "Step by Step—A Quarterly Evaluation of EU Commission's GDP Forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 1026-1041, April.
    2. Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013. "Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79925, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2016. "Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities, With Applications to Federal Reserve and Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 11391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Julieta Caunedo & Riccardo Dicecio & Ivana Komunjer & Michael T. Owyang, 2020. "Asymmetry, Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 205-228, February.

  7. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Frontiers of real-time data analysis," Working Papers 08-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Siklos, Pierre L., 2013. "What's in a second opinion? Shadowing the ECB and the Bank of England," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 135-148.
    2. Adam J. Check & Anna K Nolan & Tyler C. Schipper, 2019. "Forecasting GDP Growth using Disaggregated GDP Revisions," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(4), pages 2580-2588.
    3. Hecq, Alain & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Stamatogiannis, Michalis P., 2019. "Testing for news and noise in non-stationary time series subject to multiple historical revisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 396-407.
    4. Hobler, Stephan, 2022. "Multi-layered rational inattention and time-varying volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Dean Croushore, 2009. "Commentary on Estimating U.S. output growth with vintage data in a state-space framework," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Jul), pages 371-382.
    6. Aguirre, Idoia & Vázquez, Jesús, 2018. "Inflation monitoring in real time: A comparative analysis of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 200-209.
    7. Lise Pichette & Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, 2017. "Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data," Discussion Papers 17-5, Bank of Canada.
    8. P. Siklos, B. Lavender, 2014. "The Credit Cycle And The Business Cycle In Canada And The U.S.: Two Solitudes," LCERPA Working Papers wm0065, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
    9. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2019. "Measuring Data Uncertainty: An Application using the Bank of England's "Fan Charts" for Historical GDP Growth," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2019-08, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    10. Mogliani, Matteo & Darné, Olivier & Pluyaud, Bertrand, 2017. "The new MIBA model: Real-time nowcasting of French GDP using the Banque de France's monthly business survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 26-39.
    11. Severin Bernhard, 2016. "A real-time GDP data set for Switzerland," Economic Studies 2016-09, Swiss National Bank.
    12. Chou, Jenyu & Easaw, Joshy & Minford, Patrick, 2021. "Does Inattentiveness Matter for DSGE Modelling? An Empirical Investigation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2021/35, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    13. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2013. "Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 736-750.
    14. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Banbura, Marta, 2012. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," CEPR Discussion Papers 9112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wei, Min, 2012. "Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 239-254.
    16. Jan Capek, 2014. "Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Reaction Functions: Do Real-Time Data Matter?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(6), pages 457-475, December.
    17. Götz, T.B. & Hecq, A.W. & Urbain, J.R.Y.J., 2014. "Combining distributions of real-time forecasts: An application to U.S. growth," Research Memorandum 027, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    18. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
    19. Robert Lehmann, 2024. "A real-time regional accounts database for Germany with applications to GDP revisions and nowcasting," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(2), pages 817-838, August.
    20. Poza, Carlos & Monge, Manuel, 2020. "A real time leading economic indicator based on text mining for the Spanish economy. Fractional cointegration VAR and Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 163-175.
    21. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2014. "Multi-step forecasting in the presence of breaks," MPRA Paper 55816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. M. Mogliani & Thomas Ferrière, 2016. "Rationality of announcements, business cycle asymmetry, and predictability of revisions. The case of French GDP," Working papers 600, Banque de France.
    23. Warne, Anders, 2023. "DSGE model forecasting: rational expectations vs. adaptive learning," Working Paper Series 2768, European Central Bank.
    24. Yutaka Kurihara, 2016. "Can the Disparity between GDP and GDP Forecast Cause Economic Instability? The Recent Japanese Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(8), pages 155-160, 08-2016.
    25. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2016. "When does the yield curve contain predictive power? Evidence from a data-rich environment," MPRA Paper 70489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Jan Čapek & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jakub Chalmovianský & Vlastimil Reichel, 2025. "Real‐Time Data, Revisions and the Predictive Ability of DSGE Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 87(6), pages 1059-1080, December.
    27. Thomas Gilbert & Chiara Scotti & Georg Strasser & Clara Vega, 2015. "Is the Intrinsic Value of Macroeconomic News Announcements Related to their Asset Price Impact?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    28. Amstad, Marlene & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "Monthly pass-through ratios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1202-1213, July.
    29. Jalles, João Tovar, 2017. "On the rationality and efficiency of inflation forecasts: Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 175-189.
    30. Vasconcelos de Deus, Joseph David Barroso & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2017. "Fiscal forecasting performance in an emerging economy: An empirical assessment of Brazil," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 408-419.
    31. Serhan Cevik & João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "This Changes Everything: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds," Working Papers REM 2020/0132, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    32. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2015. "Selection of an estimation window in the presence of data revisions and recent structural breaks," MPRA Paper 66759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Matthieu Verstraete & Lena Suchanek, 2018. "Understanding Monetary Policy and its Effects: Evidence from Canadian Firms Using the Business Outlook Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 7221, CESifo.
    34. Givens, Gregory & Salemi, Michael, 2012. "Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state," MPRA Paper 39353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Tim Meyer, 2019. "On the Directional Accuracy of United States Housing Starts Forecasts: Evidence from Survey Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 457-488, April.
    36. Loretta J. Mester, 2016. "Acknowledging Uncertainty, 10-07-2016; Shadow Open Market Committee Fall Meeting, New York, NY," Speech 77, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    37. Strohsal, Till & Wolf, Elias, 2020. "Data revisions to German national accounts: Are initial releases good nowcasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1252-1259.
    38. Fumio Hayashi & Yuta Tachi, 2023. "Nowcasting Japan’s GDP," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1699-1735, April.
    39. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell & Johnny Runge, 2019. "Communicating Data Uncertainty: Experimental Evidence for U.K. GDP," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2019-20, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    40. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2017. "Making Data Measurement Errors Transparent: The Case of the IMF," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 18(3), pages 133-154, July.
    41. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    42. Y. Tsuchiya, 2014. "A directional evaluation of corporate executives' exchange rate forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 95-101, January.
    43. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2013. "What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices," Staff Working Papers 13-15, Bank of Canada.
    44. Marek RUSNAK, 2013. "Revisions to the Czech National Accounts: Properties and Predictability," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(3), pages 244-261, July.
    45. Daniel Murphy, 2015. "How Can Government Spending Stimulate Consumption?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 551-574, July.
    46. Barend Abeln & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Pim Ouwehand, 2019. "CAMPLET: Seasonal Adjustment Without Revisions," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(1), pages 73-95, April.
    47. Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick & Groenen, Patrick J.F., 2011. "Real-time macroeconomic forecasting with leading indicators: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 466-481.
    48. Xueting Yu & Yuhan Zhu & Guangming Lv, 2020. "Analysis of the Impact of China’s GDP Data Revision on Monetary Policy from the Perspective of Uncertainty," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(6), pages 1251-1274, May.
    49. Mitchell, James & Shiroff, Taylor, 2025. "Are revisions to state-level GDP data in the US well behaved?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    50. Dean Croushore & Simon van Norden, 2017. "Fiscal Surprises At The Fomc," Working Papers 17-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    51. Marcelo Bianconi & Xiaxin Hua & Chih Ming Tan, 2013. "Determinants of Systemic Risk and Information Dissemination," Working Paper series 67_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    52. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2015. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," Kiel Working Papers 1989, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    53. de Haan Jakob, 2019. "Some Reflections on the Political Economy of Monetary Policy," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 70(3), pages 213-228, December.
    54. Patton, Andrew & Streatfield, Michael, 2012. "Change You Can Believe In? Hedge Fund Data Revisions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8898, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    55. Kaufmann, Daniel & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 878-893.
    56. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macro-Forecasters Essentially The Same? An Analysis of Disagreement, Accuracy and Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    57. Rychalovska, Yuliya & Slobodyan, Sergey & Wouters, Raf, 2025. "Survey expectations, learning and inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    58. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2016. "Improving the reliability of real-time output gap estimates using survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 358-373.
    59. Amador-Torres, J. Sebastián, 2017. "Finance-neutral potential output: An evaluation in an emerging market monetary policy context," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 389-407.
    60. Monge, Manuel & Claudio-Quiroga, Gloria & Poza, Carlos, 2024. "Chinese economic behavior in times of covid-19. A new leading economic indicator based on Google trends," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    61. Paulina Ziembińska, 2021. "Quality of Tests of Expectation Formation for Revised Data," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(4), pages 405-453, December.
    62. Tara M. Sinclair, 2012. "Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions," Working Papers 2012-09, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    63. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2011. "Real-time data and fiscal policy analysis: a survey of the literature," Working Papers 11-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    64. Santiago Pinto & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Sonya Ravindranath Waddell, 2015. "Monitoring Economic Activity in Real Time Using Diffusion Indices: Evidence from the Fifth District," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 4Q, pages 275-301.
    65. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Wu, Chongfeng, 2017. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil using forecast combinations over time-varying parameter models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 337-348.
    66. Emilia Tomczyk, 2013. "End of sample vs. real time data: perspectives for analysis of expectations," Working Papers 68, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    67. Chrystalleni Aristidou & Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2015. "Real-Time Data should be used in Forecasting Output Growth and Recessionary Events in the US," Discussion Papers 2015/13, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    68. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2009. "Data Revisions in India and its Implications for Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 16099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    69. Elena Andreou & Andros Kourtellos, 2015. "The State and the Future of Cyprus Macroeconomic Forecasting," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 9(1), pages 73-90, June.
    70. Binswanger, Johannes & Oechslin, Manuel, 2020. "Better statistics, better economic policies?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    71. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil," Staff Working Papers 11-16, Bank of Canada.
    72. Dean Croushore & Keith Sill, 2014. "Analyzing data revisions with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Working Papers 14-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    73. Pan, Zhiyuan & Wang, Qing & Wang, Yudong & Yang, Li, 2018. "Forecasting U.S. real GDP using oil prices: A time-varying parameter MIDAS model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 177-187.
    74. Qiu, Yajie & Deschamps, Bruno & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2024. "Uncertainty and macroeconomic forecasts: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 463-480.
    75. Bhatt, Vipul & Kishor, Kundan & Marfatia, Hardik, 2017. "Estimating excess sensitivity and habit persistence in consumption using Greenbook forecast as an instrument," MPRA Paper 79748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    76. Denis Shibitov & Mariam Mamedli, 2021. "Forecasting Russian Cpi With Data Vintages And Machine Learning Techniques," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps70, Bank of Russia.
    77. Givens, Gregory, 2016. "Do data revisions matter for DSGE estimation?," MPRA Paper 70932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    78. Eva A. Arnold, 2013. "The Role of Data Revisions and Disagreement in Professional Forecasts," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201303, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    79. Asimakopoulos, Stylianos & Lalik, Magdalena & Paredes, Joan & Salvado García, José, 2023. "GDP revisions are not cool: the impact of statistical agencies’ trade-off," Working Paper Series 2857, European Central Bank.
    80. Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Klieber, Karin, 2023. "Real-time inflation forecasting using non-linear dimension reduction techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 901-921.
    81. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    82. Chou, Jenyu & Cao, Yifei & Minford, Patrick, 2022. "Evaluation and Indirect Inference Estimation of Inattentive Features in a New Keynesian Framework," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2022/2, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    83. Dieter Brümmerhoff & Michael Grömling, 2013. "Ökonomische Auswirkungen von VGR-Revisionen," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 6(3), pages 133-148, March.
    84. Smith Paul, 2016. "Nowcasting UK GDP during the depression," Working Papers 1606, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    85. Haan, Jakob de & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2012. "Using real-time data to test for political budget cycles," Research Report 12010-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    86. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion," Working Papers 2011-05, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    87. Frédérique Bec & Matteo Mogliani, 2013. "Nowcasting French GDP in Real-Time from Survey Opinions : Information or Forecast Combinations ?," Working Papers 2013-21, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    88. Dean Croushore, 2012. "Forecast bias in two dimensions," Working Papers 12-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    89. Vipul Bhatt & N. Kundan Kishor & Hardik Marfatia, 2020. "Estimating Excess Sensitivity and Habit Persistence in Consumption Using Greenbook Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(2), pages 257-284, April.
    90. Lee, Kevin & Olekalns, Nils & Shields, Kalvinder, 2009. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real-Time Data are Available," CEPR Discussion Papers 7426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    91. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Do corporate executives have accurate predictions for the economy? A directional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 167-174.
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    125. Camino-Mogro, Segundo, 2020. "Turbulence in startups: Effect of COVID-19 lockdown on creation of new firms and its capital," MPRA Paper 104502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    126. Zhang, Bo & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Real-time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2020-12, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    127. Juan Bógalo & Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2021. "Circulant Singular Spectrum Analysis to Monitor the State of the Economy in Real Time," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-17, May.
    128. Philip ME Garboden, 2019. "Sources and Types of Big Data for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers 2019-3, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    129. Jones, Jacob T. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman O., 2020. "A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1478-1487.
    130. António Rua & Fátima Cardoso, 2011. "The Quarterly National Accounts in real-time: an analysis of the revisions over the last decade," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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    132. Heinisch, Katja, 2024. "Step by step - A quarterly evaluation of EU Commission's GDP forecasts," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2024, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    133. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Anticipating Early Data Revisions to US GDP and the Effects of Releases on Equity Markets," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    134. Bob Krebs, 2019. "Revisions to Quarterly National Accounts data in Luxembourg," BCL working papers 136, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    135. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2016. "Why are initial estimates of productivity growth so unreliable?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 200-213.
    136. Ley, Eduardo & Misch, Florian, 2013. "Real-time macro monitoring and fiscal policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6303, The World Bank.
    137. Marie Bessec & Othman Bouabdallah, 2012. "Forecasting GDP over the business cycle in a multi-frequency and data-rich environment," Working papers 384, Banque de France.
    138. Baetje, Fabian & Friedrici, Karola, 2016. "Does cross-sectional forecast dispersion proxy for macroeconomic uncertainty? New empirical evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 38-43.
    139. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
    140. Gootjes, Bram & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Procyclicality of fiscal policy in European Union countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    141. Götz, Thomas B. & Hecq, Alain & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2016. "Combining forecasts from successive data vintages: An application to U.S. growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-74.
    142. van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2017. "Measurement error of global production," ISS Working Papers - General Series 632, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    143. Matthieu Verstraete & Lena Suchanek, 2017. "Understanding Monetary Policy and its Effects: Evidence from Canadian Firms Using the Business Outlook Survey," Staff Working Papers 17-24, Bank of Canada.
    144. Smets, Frank & Warne, Anders & Wouters, Raf, 2013. "Professional forecasters and the real-time forecasting performance of an estimated new keynesian model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1571, European Central Bank.
    145. Heinisch, Katja, 2016. "A real-time analysis on the importance of hard and soft data for nowcasting German GDP," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145864, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    146. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch, 2015. "Predicting Recessions With Boosted Regression Trees," Working Papers 2015-004, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    147. Flodberg, Caroline & Österholm, Pär, 2015. "A Statistical Analysis of Revisions of Swedish National Accounts Data," Working Papers 136, National Institute of Economic Research.
    148. Borup, Daniel & Schütte, Erik Christian Montes, 2022. "Asset pricing with data revisions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).
    149. Weigand Roland & Wanger Susanne & Zapf Ines, 2018. "Factor Structural Time Series Models for Official Statistics with an Application to Hours Worked in Germany," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 34(1), pages 265-301, March.
    150. Heinisch, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Should forecasters use real-time data to evaluate leading indicator models for GDP prediction? German evidence," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    151. Kempkes, Gerhard, 2012. "Cyclical adjustment in fiscal rules: Some evidence on real-time bias for EU-15 countries," Discussion Papers 15/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    152. Bluhm, Marcel, 2015. "Investigating the monetary policy of central banks with assessment indicators," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 181-196.
    153. Funashima, Yoshito & Iizuka, Nobuo & Ohtsuka, Yoshihiro, 2020. "GDP announcements and stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    154. Martin Slanicay & Jan Čapek & Miroslav Hloušek, 2016. "Some Notes On Problematic Issues In Dsge Models," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 61(210), pages 79-100, July - Se.
    155. Giovannelli, Alessandro & Pericoli, Filippo Maria, 2020. "Are GDP forecasts optimal? Evidence on European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 963-973.
    156. McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2018. "Euro area real-time density forecasting with financial or labor market frictions," Working Paper Series 2140, European Central Bank.
    157. Michele Berardi & Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2012. "On the plausibility of adaptive learning in macroeconomics: A puzzling conflict in the choice of the representative algorithm," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 177, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    158. Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2010. "Learning about informational rigidities from sectoral data and diffusion indices," Working Paper 10-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    159. Jaqueson K. Galimberti & Marcelo L. Moura, 2011. "Improving the reliability of real-time Hodrick-Prescott filtering using survey forecasts," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 159, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    160. Kevin Lee & James Morley & Kian Ong & Kalvinder Shields, 2018. "Measuring the fiscal multiplier when plans take time to implement," Discussion Papers 2018/10, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
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  8. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Revisions to PCE inflation measures: implications for monetary policy," Working Papers 08-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Camila Figueroa & Jorge Fornero & Pablo García, 2019. "Hindsight vs. Real time measurement of the output gap: Implications for the Phillips curve in the Chilean Case," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 854, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Dean Croushore, 2009. "Commentary on Estimating U.S. output growth with vintage data in a state-space framework," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Jul), pages 371-382.
    3. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2011. "Data revisions in India: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 164-173, April.
    4. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2012. "Improving Real-Time Estimates of Output and Inflation Gaps With Multiple-Vintage Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 554-562, May.
    5. Gilbert, Thomas, 2011. "Information aggregation around macroeconomic announcements: Revisions matter," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 114-131, July.
    6. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2011. "Forecasting and tracking real-time data revisions in inflation persistence," MPRA Paper 34439, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    8. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2009. "A Local Examination for Persistence in Exclusions-from-Core Measures of Inflation Using Real-Time Data," MPRA Paper 13383, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Feb 2009.
    9. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Frontiers of real-time data analysis," Working Papers 08-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    10. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2010. "Real-Time Data Revisions and the PCE Measure of Inflation," MPRA Paper 22387, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2010.
    11. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2009. "Evaluating Exclusion-from-Core Measures of Inflation using Real-Time Data," MPRA Paper 17856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Tara M. Sinclair, 2012. "Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions," Working Papers 2012-09, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    13. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2009. "Data Revisions in India and its Implications for Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 16099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Galbraith, John W. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Kernel-based calibration diagnostics for recession and inflation probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1041-1057, October.
    15. Heather L. R. Tierney, 2019. "Forecasting with the Nonparametric Exclusion-from-Core Inflation Persistence Model Using Real-Time Data," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 39-63, February.
    16. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2016. "The roles of inflation expectations, core inflation, and slack in real-time inflation forecasting," Working Papers 1613, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    17. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2009. "Examining the Ability of Core Inflation to Capture the Overall Trend of Total Inflation," MPRA Paper 22409, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2010.
    18. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2011. "Improving Real-time Estimates of Output Gaps and Inflation Trends with Multiple-vintage Models," Working Papers 678, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    19. Pavol Povala & Anna Cieslak, 2012. "Understanding bond risk premia," 2012 Meeting Papers 771, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Richard G. Anderson & Charles S. Gascon, 2009. "Estimating U.S. output growth with vintage data in a state-space framework," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Jul), pages 349-370.
    21. Guido Lorenzoni, 2009. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2050-2084, December.
    22. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Gödl-Hanisch, Isabel & Sims, Eric R., 2022. "Identifying monetary policy shocks using the central bank’s information set," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    23. Michael Dotsey & Charles I. Plosser, 2012. "Designing monetary policy rules in an uncertain economic environment," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 1-9.

  9. Dean Croushore, 2006. "An evaluation of inflation forecasts from surveys using real-time data," Working Papers 06-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    2. James Yetman & Gregor W. Smith, 2007. "The Curse Of Irving Fisher (professional Forecasters' Version)," Working Paper 1144, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    3. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Cassou, Steven P., 2021. "Asymmetries in the effects of unemployment expectation shocks as monetary policy shifts with economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rupal Kamdar, 2017. "The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 23304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2013. "Measuring The Slowly Evolving Trend In Us Inflation With Professional Forecasts," Working Paper 1316, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    6. Katharina Glass & Ulrich Fritsche, 2015. "Real-time Macroeconomic Data and Uncertainty," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201406, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    7. Rubaszek, Michal & Skrzypczynski, Pawel, 2008. "On the forecasting performance of a small-scale DSGE model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 498-512.
    8. Bedri Kamil Onur Taş, 2016. "Does the Federal Reserve have Private Information about its Future Actions?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(331), pages 498-517, July.
    9. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 2008. "Expected consumption growth from cross-country surveys: implications for assessing international capital markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 949, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Pablo Pincheira B. & Nicolás Fernández, 2011. "Jaque Mate a las Proyecciones de Consenso," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 630, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2020. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 17-33, March.
    12. Michal Rubaszek & Pawel Skrzypczynski, 2007. "Can a simple DSGE model outperform Professional Forecasters?," NBP Working Papers 43, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    13. Croushore Dean, 2010. "An Evaluation of Inflation Forecasts from Surveys Using Real-Time Data," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, May.
    14. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    15. Fabiana Gomez & David Pacini, 2015. "Counting Biased Forecasters: An Application of Multiple Testing Techniques," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 15/661, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    16. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2016. "Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities, With Applications to Federal Reserve and Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 11391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Matei Demetrescu & Christoph Hanck & Robinson Kruse‐Becher, 2022. "Robust inference under time‐varying volatility: A real‐time evaluation of professional forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 1010-1030, August.
    18. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Dean Croushore & Katherine Marsten, 2014. "The continuing power of the yield spread in forecasting recessions," Working Papers 14-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    20. Rychalovska, Yuliya & Slobodyan, Sergey & Wouters, Raf, 2025. "Survey expectations, learning and inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    21. Soojin Jo & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2017. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 1702, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    22. Nicolas Reigl, 2023. "Noise shocks and business cycle fluctuations in three major European Economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 603-657, February.
    23. Chrystalleni Aristidou & Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2015. "Real-Time Data should be used in Forecasting Output Growth and Recessionary Events in the US," Discussion Papers 2015/13, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    24. Devereux, Michael B. & Smith, Gregor W. & Yetman, James, 2012. "Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 33-42.
    25. Reifschneider, David & Tulip, Peter, 2019. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook using historical forecasting errors: The Federal Reserve’s approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1564-1582.
    26. Dick van Dijk & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel van der Wel & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-076/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    27. Eric Eisenstat & Rodney Strachan, 2014. "Modelling Inflation Volatility," Working Paper series 43_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    28. Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał & Skrzypczyński, Paweł, 2009. "Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test," Working Paper Series 1110, European Central Bank.
    29. Kurt Graden Lunsford & Kenneth D. West, 2023. "Random Walk Forecasts of Stationary Processes Have Low Bias," Working Papers 23-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    30. Smith, Gregor W., 2009. "Pooling forecasts in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1858-1866, November.
    31. Paul Hubert & Harun Mirza, 2019. "The role of forward- and backward-looking information for inflation expectations formation," Post-Print hal-03403616, HAL.
    32. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    33. Gregor W. Smith & James Yetman, 2013. "Estimating Dynamic Euler Equations With Multivariate Professional Forecasts," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 445-458, January.
    34. Aparicio, Diego & Bertolotto, Manuel I., 2020. "Forecasting inflation with online prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 232-247.
    35. Dean Croushore, 2012. "Forecast bias in two dimensions," Working Papers 12-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    36. Wright, Jonathan H., 2019. "Some observations on forecasting and policy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1186-1192.
    37. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    38. Pablo M. Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2016. "Forecasting with a Random Walk," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(6), pages 539-564, December.
    39. Gomes, Orlando & Mendes, Diana A. & Mendes, Vivaldo M., 2008. "Bounded rational expectations and the stability of interest rate policy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3882-3890.
    40. Liu, Dandan & Smith, Julie K., 2014. "Inflation forecasts and core inflation measures: Where is the information on future inflation?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 133-137.
    41. Unn Lindholm & Marcus Mossfeldt & Pär Stockhammar, 2020. "Forecasting inflation in Sweden," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(1), pages 39-68, April.
    42. Panpan Zhu & Qingjie Zhou & Yinpeng Zhang, 2024. "Investor attention and consumer price index inflation rate: Evidence from the United States," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    43. Pablo Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation with a Simple and Accurate Benchmark: a Cross-Country Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 677, Central Bank of Chile.
    44. Elmar Mertens & James M. Nason, 2020. "Inflation and professional forecast dynamics: An evaluation of stickiness, persistence, and volatility," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1485-1520, November.
    45. Kim, Insu & Kim, Young Se, 2019. "Inattentive agents and inflation forecast error dynamics: A Bayesian DSGE approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    46. Zhang, Bo & Chan, Joshua C.C. & Cross, Jamie L., 2020. "Stochastic volatility models with ARMA innovations: An application to G7 inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1318-1328.
    47. Travis J. Berge, 2017. "Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    48. Julie Bennett & Michael T. Owyang, 2022. "On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 104(2), pages 131-148.
    49. Wang, Yiyao & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 2014. "Asymmetric loss in the Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 235-245.
    50. Pincheira, Pablo, 2013. "A Bunch of Models, a Bunch of Nulls and Inference about Predictive Ability," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 26-43, October.
    51. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2013. "Reverse Kalman filtering U.S. inflation with sticky professional forecasts," Working Papers 13-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    52. Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2022. "Constructing Fan Charts from the Ragged Edge of SPF Forecasts," Working Papers 22-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    53. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015. "Can Macroeconomists Forecast Risk? Event-Based Evidence from the Euro-Area SPF," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 1-46, December.
    54. Gilberto Boaretto & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2023. "Forecasting inflation using disaggregates and machine learning," Papers 2308.11173, arXiv.org.
    55. Florian Peters & Simas Kucinskas, 2018. "Measuring Biases in Expectation Formation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-058/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    56. Dean Croushore, 2010. "Philadelphia Fed forecasting surveys: their value for research," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 1-11.
    57. Mr. Olivier Coibion & Mr. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," IMF Working Papers 2012/296, International Monetary Fund.
    58. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun P Vahey, 2007. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0714, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    59. Pablo Pincheira & Carlos Medel, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation With a Random Walk," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 669, Central Bank of Chile.
    60. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Shaun P. Vahey, 2006. "Forecasting Substantial Data Revisions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0617, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    61. João Valle e Azevedo & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Rational vs. Professional Forecasts," Working Papers w201114, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    62. Pablo Pincheira, 2012. "A Joint Test of Superior Predictive Ability for Chilean Inflation Forecasts," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 15(3), pages 04-39, December.
    63. Gimeno, Ricardo & Ibáñez, Alfredo, 2018. "The eurozone (expected) inflation: An option's eyes view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 70-92.
    64. Zo Andriantomanga, 2025. "The role of survey-based expectations in real-time forecasting of US inflation," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 77-98, April.
    65. David L. Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2017. "Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors : The Federal Reserve's Approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    66. Pablo M. Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with a Simple and Accurate Benchmark: The Case of the US and a Set of Inflation Targeting Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(1), pages 2-29, January.
    67. Víctor López-Pérez, 2017. "Do professional forecasters behave as if they believed in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 147-174, February.
    68. Filip Novotný & Marie Raková, 2011. "Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(4), pages 348-366, August.
    69. Kocięcki, Andrzej & Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2012. "A Bayesian method of combining judgmental and model-based density forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1349-1355.
    70. Ganics, Gergely & Mertens, Elmar & Clark, Todd E., 2023. "What Is the Predictive Value of SPF Point and Density Forecasts?," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277622, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    71. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," MPRA Paper 39452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    72. Anmol Bhandari & Jaroslav Borovička & Paul Ho, 2016. "Identifying Ambiguity Shocks in Business Cycle Models Using Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 22225, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  10. Croushore, Dean, 2004. "Do Consumer Confidence Indexes Help Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,27, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    Cited by:

    1. Juhro, Solikin M. & Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2020. "Consumer confidence and consumption expenditure in Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 367-377.
    2. Daniel Aaronson & Scott A. Brave & Michael Fogarty & Ezra Karger & Spencer D. Krane, 2021. "Tracking U.S. Consumers in Real Time with a New Weekly Index of Retail Trade," Working Paper Series WP-2021-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, revised 18 Jun 2021.
    3. Aleksejs Melihovs & Svetlana Rusakova, 2005. "Short-Term Forecasting of Economic Development in Latvia Using Business and Consumer Survey Data," Working Papers 2005/04, Latvijas Banka.
    4. Dean Croushore, 2006. "Consumer confidence surveys: can they help us forecast consumer spending in real time?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 1-9.
    5. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Do business tendency surveys help in forecasting employment?: A real-time evidence for Switzerland," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(2), pages 129-151.
    6. Siliverstovs Boriss & Kholodilin Konstantin A., 2012. "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(4), pages 429-444, August.
    7. Bespalova, Olga, 2018. "Forecast Evaluation in Macroeconomics and International Finance. Ph.D. thesis, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA," MPRA Paper 117706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos & Yongchen Zhao, 2015. "Forecasting Consumption: The Role of Consumer Confidence in Real Time with many Predictors," Working Papers 2015-02, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2015.
    9. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Frontiers of real-time data analysis," Working Papers 08-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    11. Gomes, Orlando, 2007. "Consumer confidence, endogenous growth and endogenous cycles," MPRA Paper 2883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Naoko Hara & Hibiki Ichiue, 2010. "Real-time Analysis on Japan's Labor Productivity," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 10-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    13. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2011. "The Real-Time Predictive Content of the KOF Economic Barometer," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 147(III), pages 353-375, September.
    14. Hutson, Mark & Joutz, Fred & Stekler, Herman, 2014. "Interpreting and evaluating CESIfo's World Economic Survey directional forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 6-11.
    15. Hamid Baghestani & Polly Palmer, 2017. "On the dynamics of U.S. consumer sentiment and economic policy assessment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(3), pages 227-237, January.
    16. Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon, 2010. "A monthly consumption indicator for Germany based on internet search query data," Ruhr Economic Papers 208, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    17. John Khumalo, 2014. "Consumer Spending and Consumer Confidence in South Africa: Cointegration Analysis," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(2), pages 95-104.
    18. Konstantin Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP," KOF Working papers 10-251, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    19. E. Kilic & S. Cankaya, 2016. "Consumer confidence and economic activity: a factor augmented VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(32), pages 3062-3080, July.
    20. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Assessing Predictive Content of the KOF Barometer in Real Time," KOF Working papers 10-249, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    21. Darren Grant, 2014. "What Makes A Good Economy? Evidence From Public Opinion Surveys," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 1120-1136, July.
    22. Stephen Bruestle & W. Mark Crain, 2015. "A mean-variance approach to forecasting with the consumer confidence index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(23), pages 2430-2444, May.
    23. Md. Kabir Ahmed Chowdhury & G.M. Abul Kalam Azad, 2010. "Consumer Confidence in Financial Markets," Working Papers id:3265, eSocialSciences.
    24. Paradiso, Antonio & Kumar, Saten & Margani, Patrizia, 2014. "Are Italian consumer confidence adjustments asymmetric? A macroeconomic and psychological motives approach," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 48-63.
    25. Dean Croushore & Stephanie M. Wilshusen, 2020. "Forecasting Consumption Spending Using Credit Bureau Data," Working Papers 20-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    26. Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon, 2009. "Forecasting Private Consumption: Survey-based Indicators vs. Google Trends," Ruhr Economic Papers 155, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    27. Dean Baker & David Rosnick, 2014. "Stimulus and Fiscal Consolidation: The Evidence and Implications," IMK Working Paper 135-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    28. Michelle T. Armesto & Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang, 2010. "Forecasting with mixed frequencies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Nov), pages 521-536.
    29. Baghestani, Hamid, 2021. "Predicting growth in US durables spending using consumer durables-buying attitudes," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 327-336.
    30. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2009. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," NBER Working Papers 15049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Juan Tenorio & Heidi Alpiste & Jakelin Rem'on & Arian Segil, 2025. "An Artificial Trend Index for Private Consumption Using Google Trends," Papers 2503.21981, arXiv.org.
    32. Garabedian, Garo, 2025. "Star-struck; Monetary Policy and the Neutral Rate," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/25, Central Bank of Ireland.
    33. Abosedra, Salah & Laopodis, Nikiforos T. & Fakih, Ali, 2021. "Dynamics and asymmetries between consumer sentiment and consumption in pre- and during-COVID-19 time: Evidence from the US," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    34. Dimitriou Dimitrios & Pappas Anastasios & Kazanas Thanassis & Kenourgios Dimitris, 2021. "Do confidence indicators lead Greek economic activity?," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 1-15.
    35. S. Heravi & J. Easaw & R. Golinelli, 2016. "Generalized State-Dependent Models: A Multivariate Approach," Working Papers wp1067, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    36. Baghestani, Hamid & AbuAl-Foul, Bassam M., 2017. "Comparing Federal Reserve, Blue Chip, and time series forecasts of US output growth," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 47-56.
    37. Ferhat Pehlivanoğlu & Saffet Akdağ & Andrew Adewale Alola, 2021. "The causal nexus of geopolitical risks, consumer and producer confidence indexes: evidence from selected economies," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1261-1273, August.
    38. Hamid Baghestani, 2017. "Do US consumer survey data help beat the random walk in forecasting mortgage rates?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1343017-134, January.

  11. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2002. "Is macroeconomic research robust to alternative data sets?," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Hillinger Claude, 2003. "The Money Metric, Price and Quantity Aggregation and Welfare Measurement," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-36, July.
    2. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 2004. "Eyes on the prize: how did the Fed respond to the stock market?," Public Policy Discussion Paper 04-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Gloria Lucía Bernal Nisperuza & Johanna Táutiva Pradere, 2011. "Datos en tiempo real:una aplicación a la regla de taylor en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 13(24), pages 373-394, January-J.
    4. Andrew C. Chang & Phillip Li, 2015. "Measurement Error in Macroeconomic Data and Economics Research: Data Revisions, Gross Domestic Product, and Gross Domestic Income," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-102, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Döhrn, Roland, 2018. "Revisionen der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen: Revisionspraxis des Statistischen Bundesamtes und ihre Auswirkungen auf Prognosen," RWI Materialien 127, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    6. Anthony M. Santomero, 2005. "Making monetary policy: what do we know and when do we know it?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 1-8.
    7. Roland Döhrn, 2019. "Revisionen der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen und ihre Auswirkungen auf Prognosen [Revisions of national accounts data and their impact on forecasts]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 13(2), pages 99-123, September.
    8. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," MPRA Paper 39452, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  12. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2002. "Forecasting coin demand," Working Papers 02-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Levy, Daniel & Young, Andrew, 2004. "The Real Thing: Nominal Price Rigidity of the Nickel Coke, 1886–1959," MPRA Paper 1046, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dean Croushore, 2003. "U.S. coins: forecasting change," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q2, pages 6-13.
    3. Rómulo Chumacero & Claudio Pardo & David Valdés, 2007. "A new framework for the elaboration of bill printing and coining programs," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 454, Central Bank of Chile.

  13. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Stan Hurn & Jing Tian & Lina Xu, 2021. "Assessing the Informational Content of Official Australian Bureau of Meteorology Forecasts of Wind Speed," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(319), pages 525-547, December.
    2. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2007. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 13151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Herrmann, Heinz & Orphanides, Athanasios & Siklos, Pierre L., 2005. "Real-time data and monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 271-276, December.
    4. Clements, Michael P., 2014. "Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-117.
    5. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
    6. Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2017. "Measurement errors and monetary policy: Then and now," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 66-78.
    7. P�r Österholm, 2014. "Survey data and short-term forecasts of Swedish GDP growth," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 135-139, January.
    8. Aguirre, Idoia & Vázquez, Jesús, 2018. "Inflation monitoring in real time: A comparative analysis of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 200-209.
    9. Scott A. Brave & Charles S. Gascon & William Kluender & Thomas Walstrum, 2019. "Predicting Benchmarked US State Employment Data in Real Time," Working Papers 2019-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 11 Mar 2021.
    10. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Working Papers (Old Series) 1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    11. Lise Pichette & Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, 2017. "Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data," Discussion Papers 17-5, Bank of Canada.
    12. Rubaszek, Michal & Skrzypczynski, Pawel, 2008. "On the forecasting performance of a small-scale DSGE model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 498-512.
    13. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2019. "Measuring Data Uncertainty: An Application using the Bank of England's "Fan Charts" for Historical GDP Growth," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2019-08, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    14. Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick & Groenen, Patrick J.F., 2011. "Real-time macroeconomic forecasting with leading indicators: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 466-481, April.
    15. Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Severin Bernhard, 2016. "A real-time GDP data set for Switzerland," Economic Studies 2016-09, Swiss National Bank.
    17. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2019. "The Taylor principles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    18. Michael S. Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2016. "Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 416-434, July.
    19. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2013. "Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 736-750.
    20. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2011. "Data revisions in India: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 164-173, April.
    21. Marcelle, Chauvet & Jeremy, Piger, 2010. "Employment and the business cycle," MPRA Paper 46642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 305-340.
    23. A. Girardi & R. Golinelli & C. Pappalardo, 2014. "The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time," Working Papers wp919, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    24. Andrejs Bessonovs, 2015. "Suite of Latvia's GDP forecasting models," Working Papers 2015/01, Latvijas Banka.
    25. Clements, Michael P., 2019. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1240-1249.
    26. Götz, T.B. & Hecq, A.W. & Urbain, J.R.Y.J., 2014. "Combining distributions of real-time forecasts: An application to U.S. growth," Research Memorandum 027, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    27. Jon Ellingsen & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting," Working Papers No 08/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    28. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
    29. Frédérique Bec & Patrick Kanda, 2019. "Is inflation driven by survey-based, VAR-based or myopic expectations?," Working Papers hal-02175836, HAL.
    30. Egginton, Don M. & Pick, Andreas & Vahey, Shaun P., 2002. "'Keep it real!': a real-time UK macro data set," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 15-20, September.
    31. Poza, Carlos & Monge, Manuel, 2020. "A real time leading economic indicator based on text mining for the Spanish economy. Fractional cointegration VAR and Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 163-175.
    32. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "A Model to Estimate the Composite Index of Economic Activity in Romania – IEF-RO," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 44-50, June.
    33. Luis Mario Hernández Acevedo, 2004. "Señales de política monetaria y tasas de interés en México," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 343-367, octubre-d.
    34. Ambrose, Brent W. & Coulson, N. Edward & Yoshida, Jiro, 2018. "Reassessing Taylor rules using improved housing rent data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 243-257.
    35. Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Monetary Policy Estimation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules without Forward-Looking Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 871-897, August.
    36. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2008. "Learning, expectations formation, and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 80-96, October.
    37. Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2016. "FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 574-589, October.
    38. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmüller, 2017. "Business Cycle Dating and Forecasting with Real-time Swiss GDP Data," WIFO Working Papers 542, WIFO.
    39. Pär Stockhammar & Pär Österholm, 2018. "Do inflation expectations granger cause inflation?," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(2), pages 403-431, August.
    40. Andrea Giusto & Jeremy Piger, 2013. "Nowcasting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points with Vector Quantization," Working Papers daleconwp2013-02, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    41. Michal Rubaszek & Pawel Skrzypczynski, 2007. "Can a simple DSGE model outperform Professional Forecasters?," NBP Working Papers 43, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    42. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2011. "The changing sensitivity of realized portfolio betas to U.S. output growth: An analysis based on real-time data," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 168-186, May.
    43. Jalles, João Tovar, 2017. "On the rationality and efficiency of inflation forecasts: Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 175-189.
    44. Tony Chernis & Calista Cheung & Gabriella Velasco, 2017. "A Three-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth," Discussion Papers 17-8, Bank of Canada.
    45. Timmermann Allan & Capistrán Carlos, 2006. "Forecast Combination with Entry and Exit of Experts," Working Papers 2006-08, Banco de México.
    46. Vasconcelos de Deus, Joseph David Barroso & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2017. "Fiscal forecasting performance in an emerging economy: An empirical assessment of Brazil," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 408-419.
    47. Heinisch Katja & Behrens Christoph & Döpke Jörg & Foltas Alexander & Fritsche Ulrich & Köhler Tim & Müller Karsten & Puckelwald Johannes & Reichmayr Hannes, 2024. "The IWH Forecasting Dashboard: From Forecasts to Evaluation and Comparison," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 244(3), pages 277-288, June.
    48. Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in real-time: A density combination approach," Working Paper 2011/11, Norges Bank.
    49. Clements, Michael P., 2012. "Do professional forecasters pay attention to data releases?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 297-308.
    50. Marcus P. A. Cobb, 2021. "Nowcasting Chilean household consumption with electronic payment data," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 931, Central Bank of Chile.
    51. de Carvalho, Miguel & Rua, António, 2017. "Real-time nowcasting the US output gap: Singular spectrum analysis at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 185-198.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pfajfar, Damjan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2010. "Heterogeneity, learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 426-444, September.
    2. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Cassou, Steven P., 2021. "Asymmetries in the effects of unemployment expectation shocks as monetary policy shifts with economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Ricardo Nunes, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1161-1172, September.
    4. Gamber, Edward N. & Hakes, David R., 2005. "Is monetary policy important for forecasting real growth and inflation?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 177-187, March.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wandi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Basit Zafar & Olivier Armantier, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on their Beliefs?," 2012 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Croushore Dean, 2010. "An Evaluation of Inflation Forecasts from Surveys Using Real-Time Data," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, May.
    8. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2017. "Empirical Findings on Inflation Expectations in Brazil: a survey," Working Papers Series 464, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Byeongdeuk Jang & Young Se Kim, 2017. "Driving Forces of Inflation Expectations," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 33, pages 207-237.
    10. Adama Zerbo, 2018. "Essai d'une nouvelle représentation macroéconomique du marché du travail," Documents de travail 178, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    11. Ripamonti, Alexandre, 2013. "Rational Valuation Formula (RVF) and Time Variability in Asset Rates of Return," MPRA Paper 79460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Carlos Hamilton V Araujo & Wagner P Gaglianone, 2010. "Survey-based inflation expectations in Brazil," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 107-114, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Ullrich, Katrin, 2008. "Inflation expectations of experts and ECB communication," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 93-108, March.
    14. Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Expectations Impact on the Effectiveness of the Inflation-Real Activity Trade-Off," MPRA Paper 35482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Dean Croushore & Simon van Norden, 2017. "Fiscal Surprises at the FOMC," CIRANO Working Papers 2017s-09, CIRANO.
    16. Tiantao Guo & Yan Wang & Wanzhu Zhang, 2023. "Standing lending facility in interbank market: Evidence from China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(5), pages 1-18, May.
    17. Dean Croushore, 1997. "The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 15-27.
    18. Javier G�mez & Jos� Dar�o Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3603, Banco de la Republica.
    19. Hamid Baghestani, 2008. "Predicting capacity utilization: Federal Reserve vs time-series models," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 32(1), pages 47-57, January.
    20. Palle S. Andersen, 1997. "Forecast errors and financial developments," BIS Working Papers 51, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Gomes, Orlando & Mendes, Diana A. & Mendes, Vivaldo M., 2008. "Bounded rational expectations and the stability of interest rate policy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3882-3890.
    22. Raj Aggarwal & Sijing Zong, 2008. "Behavioral Biases in Forward Rates as Forecasts of Future Exchange Rates: Evidence of Systematic Pessimism and Under-Reaction," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(3-4), pages 241-277, September.
    23. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Gilberto Libanio, 2005. ""Good governance" in monetary policy and the negative real effects of inflation targeting in developing economies," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td277, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    25. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2008. "Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    26. Divino, Jose Angelo & Haraguchi, Carlos, 2024. "(Mis)Alignment between observed and expected monetary policy: The case of Brazil," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    27. Javier G�mez Pineda, 2002. "Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia, and The Cost of Disinflation," Borradores de Economia 3770, Banco de la Republica.
    28. Bilgili, Faik, 2001. "The unbiasedness and efficiency tests of the rational expectations hypothesis," MPRA Paper 24114, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Mar 2010.
    29. Emiliano Santoro & Damjan Pfajfar, 2006. "Heterogeneity and learning in inflation expectation formation: an empirical assessment," Department of Economics Working Papers 0607, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    30. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," Staff Working Papers 16-7, Bank of Canada.
    31. Laurence Ball & Dean Croushore, 1998. "Expectations and the effects of monetary policy," Working Papers 98-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    32. Gilberto Libânio, 2008. "A Note on Inflation Targeting and Economic Growth in Brazil," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211614210, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    33. David R. Johnson, 1997. "Expected Inflation in Canada 1988-1995: An Evaluation of Bank of Canada Credibility and the Effect of Inflation Targets," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 23(3), pages 233-258, September.
    34. Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Regime Switching in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Non-zero Steady-state Inflation Rate," MPRA Paper 35481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Pedro Pires Ribeiro & José Dias Curto, 2018. "How do zero-coupon inflation swaps predict inflation rates in the euro area? Evidence of efficiency and accuracy on 1-year contracts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1451-1475, June.
    36. David Gbaguidi, 2012. "La courbe de Phillips : temps d’arbitrage et/ou arbitrage de temps," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 87-119.
    37. Henzel, Steffen R., 2013. "Fitting survey expectations and uncertainty about trend inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 172-185.
    38. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 6090, CESifo.
    39. Kim, Insu & Kim, Minsoo, 2009. "Irrational Bias in Inflation Forecasts," MPRA Paper 16447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. West,K.D. & Wong,K.-F. & Anatolyev,S., 2001. "Instrumental variables estimation of heteroskedastic linear models using all lags of instruments," Working papers 20, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

  15. Dean Croushore & Charles L. Evans, 2000. "Data Revisions and the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0842, Econometric Society.

    Cited by:

    1. Pierre L. Siklos & Diana N. Weymark, 2011. "Data Revisions, Gradualism, and US Inflation Pressure in Real Time," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 1110, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    2. Dunbar, Kwamie & Amin, Abu S., 2012. "Credit risk dynamics in response to changes in the federal funds target: The implication for firm short-term debt," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 141-152.
    3. Afanasyeva, Elena & Güntner, Jochen, 2014. "Lending standards, credit booms and monetary policy," IMFS Working Paper Series 85, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    4. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2004. "Forward-Looking Information in VAR Models and the Price Puzzle," Working Papers 10, Bank of Greece.
    5. Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2017. "Measurement errors and monetary policy: Then and now," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 66-78.
    6. Aguirre, Idoia & Vázquez, Jesús, 2018. "Inflation monitoring in real time: A comparative analysis of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 200-209.
    7. Dellas, Harris & Collard, Fabrice, 2010. "Monetary Misperceptions, Output and Inflation Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 7644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Magdalena Morgese Borys & Roman Horvath, 2007. "The Effects of Monetary Policy in the Czech Republic: An Empirical Study," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp339, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    9. Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1040, The University of Melbourne.
    10. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Andrea Gazzani & Fabrizio Venditti & Giovanni Veronese, 2024. "Oil price shocks in real time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1448, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Michael J. Dueker, 2002. "The monetary policy innovation paradox in VARs: a \\"discrete\\" explanation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Mar.), pages 43-50.
    13. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2016. "The Evolution of U.S. Monetary Policy: 2000 - 2007," NBER Working Papers 22693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Ulf Von Kalckreuth & Guntram B. Wolff, 2011. "Identifying Discretionary Fiscal Policy Reactions with Real‐Time Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(6), pages 1271-1285, September.
    15. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2005. "VAR estimation and forecasting when data are subject to revision," Working Papers 0501, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Xiangrong Yu, 2013. "Measurement Error and Policy Evaluation in the Frequency Domain," Working Papers 172013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    17. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Frontiers of real-time data analysis," Working Papers 08-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    18. Phan, Tuan, 2016. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Aggressive, But Less Effective Over Time?," MPRA Paper 107200, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Raul Ibarra, 2016. "How important is the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy in Mexico?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(36), pages 3462-3484, August.
    20. M. Berument & Selahattin Togay & Afsin Sahin, 2011. "Identifying the Liquidity Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks for a Small Open Economy: Turkey," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 649-667, September.
    21. Gregory E. Givens, 2017. "Do Data Revisions Matter for DSGE Estimation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(6), pages 1385-1407, September.
    22. Pierre Siklos, 2006. "What Can We Learn from Comprehensive Data Revisions for Forecasting Inflation: Some US Evidence," Working Papers eg0049, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006.
    23. William T. Gavin, 2003. "FOMC forecasts: is all the information in the central tendency?," Working Papers 2003-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    24. Joan Paredes & Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez, 2009. "A quarterly fiscal database for the euro area based on intra-annual fiscal information," Working Papers 0935, Banco de España.
    25. Ahsan ul Haq Satti & Wasim Shahid Malik, 2017. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 56(3), pages 193-219.
    26. Kamalyan, Hayk, 2022. "Data revisions and the effects of monetary policy volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    27. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    28. Sharif, Taimur & Bouteska, Ahmed & Zoynul Abedin, Mohammad & Cotturone, Saulo, 2025. "An enquiry into the monetary policy and stock market shocks in the US," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    29. Lin, Jilei & Eck, Daniel J., 2021. "Minimizing post-shock forecasting error through aggregation of outside information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1710-1727.
    30. Lee, Kevin & Olekalns, Nils & Shields, Kalvinder, 2009. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real-Time Data are Available," CEPR Discussion Papers 7426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Andersson, Fredrik N. G. & Kilman, Josefin, 2021. "A Study of the Romer and Romer Monetary Policy Shocks Using Revised Data," Working Papers 2021:19, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    32. Steven P. Cassou & C. Patrick Scott & Jesús Vázquez, 2018. "Optimal monetary policy revisited: does considering US real-time data change things?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(57), pages 6203-6219, December.
    33. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Furlanetto & Francesca Loria, 2017. "Has the Fed responded to house and stock prices? A time-varying analysis," Working Papers 1713, Banco de España.
    34. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
    35. W. Douglas McMillin & James S. Fackler, 2001. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Options," Departmental Working Papers 2001-09, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    36. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2011. "The reaction of stock returns to unexpected increases in the federal funds rate target," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 121-138.
    37. Miguel Casares & Jesús Vázquez, 2011. "Data Revisions in the Estimation of DSGE models," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 1104, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    38. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    39. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun P Vahey, 2007. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0714, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    40. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2011. "The reaction of stock returns to unexpected increases in the federal funds rate target," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 121-138, March.
    41. Richard G. Anderson & Charles S. Gascon, 2009. "Estimating U.S. output growth with vintage data in a state-space framework," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Jul), pages 349-370.
    42. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    43. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Gödl-Hanisch, Isabel & Sims, Eric R., 2022. "Identifying monetary policy shocks using the central bank’s information set," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    44. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    45. William T. Gavin & Rachel J. Mandal, 2002. "Evaluating FOMC forecasts," Working Papers 2001-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    46. Vázquez, Jesús & María-Dolores, Ramón & Londoño, Juan M., 2012. "The Effect of Data Revisions on the Basic New Keynesian Model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 235-249.
    47. Thanaset Chevapatrakul & Juan Paez-Farrell, 2014. "Monetary Policy Reaction Functions in Small Open Economies: a Quantile Regression Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(2), pages 237-256, March.

  16. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf, 2001. "Do provisional estimates of output miss economic turning points?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Hui Feng, 2009. "Real-time or current vintage: does the type of data matter for forecasting and model selection?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 183-193.
    3. Fackler, James S., 2002. "Comment on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 559-562, December.
    4. Scott Schuh, 2001. "An evaluation of recent macroeconomic forecast errors," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 35-56.
    5. William B. English & William R. Nelson & Brian P. Sack, 2002. "Interpreting the significance of lagged interest rate in estimated monetary policy rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Rünstler, Gerhard & Sédillot, Franck, 2003. "Short-term estimates of euro area real GDP by means of monthly data," Working Paper Series 276, European Central Bank.

  17. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 870, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Stan Hurn & Jing Tian & Lina Xu, 2021. "Assessing the Informational Content of Official Australian Bureau of Meteorology Forecasts of Wind Speed," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(319), pages 525-547, December.
    3. Robert L. Hetzel, 2000. "The Taylor rule : is it a useful guide to understanding monetary policy?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 1-33.
    4. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2008. "Learning, Expectations Formation, and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2008-3, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    5. Hobler, Stephan, 2022. "Multi-layered rational inattention and time-varying volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Peter Christoffersen & Eric Ghysels & Norman Swanson, 2000. "Let's Get "Real" About Using Economic Data," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1004, Econometric Society.
    7. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar, 2010. "Estimating International Transmission of Shocks Using GDP Forecasts: India and Its Trading Partners," Discussion Papers 10-06, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    8. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2007. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 13151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Herrmann, Heinz & Orphanides, Athanasios & Siklos, Pierre L., 2005. "Real-time data and monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 271-276, December.
    10. Clements, Michael P., 2014. "Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-117.
    11. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
    12. Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2017. "Measurement errors and monetary policy: Then and now," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 66-78.
    13. P�r Österholm, 2014. "Survey data and short-term forecasts of Swedish GDP growth," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 135-139, January.
    14. Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010. "Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 1028-1062.
    15. Dean Croushore, 2009. "Commentary on Estimating U.S. output growth with vintage data in a state-space framework," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Jul), pages 371-382.
    16. Aguirre, Idoia & Vázquez, Jesús, 2018. "Inflation monitoring in real time: A comparative analysis of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 200-209.
    17. Scott A. Brave & Charles S. Gascon & William Kluender & Thomas Walstrum, 2019. "Predicting Benchmarked US State Employment Data in Real Time," Working Papers 2019-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 11 Mar 2021.
    18. Dean Croushore & Charles L. Evans, 2003. "Data revisions and the identification of monetary policy shocks," Working Papers 03-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    19. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Working Papers (Old Series) 1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    20. Kosei Fukuda, 2009. "Forecasting growth cycle turning points using US and Japanese professional forecasters," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 243-267, May.
    21. Rubaszek, Michal & Skrzypczynski, Pawel, 2008. "On the forecasting performance of a small-scale DSGE model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 498-512.
    22. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2019. "Measuring Data Uncertainty: An Application using the Bank of England's "Fan Charts" for Historical GDP Growth," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2019-08, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    23. Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick & Groenen, Patrick J.F., 2011. "Real-time macroeconomic forecasting with leading indicators: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 466-481, April.
    24. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts," CREATES Research Papers 2008-55, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    25. Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    26. Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios, 2004. "Forecasting with Measurement Errors in Dynamic Models," Working Papers 521, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    27. Timmermann, Allan & Patton, Andrew, 2007. "Learning in Real Time: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the Term Structure of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 6526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Andreas Fischer & Marlene Amstad, 2004. "Sequential Information Flow and Real-Time Diagnosis of Swiss Inflation: Intra-Monthly DCF Estimates for a Low-Inflation Environment," Working Papers 04.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    29. Severin Bernhard, 2016. "A real-time GDP data set for Switzerland," Economic Studies 2016-09, Swiss National Bank.
    30. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Working Paper Series 2007-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    31. Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Faria, Thomas & Schall, Robert, 2022. "How well-behaved are revisions to quarterly fiscal data in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 2676, European Central Bank.
    32. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2004. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," International Finance Discussion Papers 804, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    33. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2019. "The Taylor principles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    34. Michael S. Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2016. "Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 416-434, July.
    35. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2011. "Data revisions in India: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 164-173, April.
    36. Marcelle, Chauvet & Jeremy, Piger, 2010. "Employment and the business cycle," MPRA Paper 46642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Christian Hepenstrick & Jason Blunier, 2022. "What were they thinking? Estimating the quarterly forecasts underlying annual growth projections," Working Papers 2022-05, Swiss National Bank.
    38. Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 305-340.
    39. A. Girardi & R. Golinelli & C. Pappalardo, 2014. "The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time," Working Papers wp919, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    40. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca & Giannone, Domenico, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4981, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    41. Andrejs Bessonovs, 2015. "Suite of Latvia's GDP forecasting models," Working Papers 2015/01, Latvijas Banka.
    42. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2011. "Real-Time Data and Fiscal Policy Analysis: a Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 2011-20, CEPII research center.
    43. Monokroussos, George & Zhao, Yongchen, 2020. "Nowcasting in real time using popularity priors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1173-1180.
    44. Kevin J. Lansing, 2000. "Learning About a Shift in Trend Output: Implications for Monetary Policy and Inflation," Working Paper Series 2000-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    45. Yash P. Mehra, 2002. "The Taylor principle, interest rate smoothing and Fed policy in the 1970s and 1980s," Working Paper 02-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    46. Clements, Michael P., 2019. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1240-1249.
    47. Götz, T.B. & Hecq, A.W. & Urbain, J.R.Y.J., 2014. "Combining distributions of real-time forecasts: An application to U.S. growth," Research Memorandum 027, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    48. Keijsers, Bart & van Dijk, Dick, 2025. "Does economic uncertainty predict real activity in real time?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 748-762.
    49. Carlos Madeira & João Madeira & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2023. "The origins of monetary policy disagreement: the role of supply and demand shocks," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 993, Central Bank of Chile.
    50. Jon Ellingsen & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting," Working Papers No 08/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    51. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
    52. Frédérique Bec & Patrick Kanda, 2019. "Is inflation driven by survey-based, VAR-based or myopic expectations?," Working Papers hal-02175836, HAL.
    53. Li, Haixi & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Yang, Jingyun, 2021. "Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 500-510.
    54. Egginton, Don M. & Pick, Andreas & Vahey, Shaun P., 2002. "'Keep it real!': a real-time UK macro data set," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 15-20, September.
    55. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "A Model to Estimate the Composite Index of Economic Activity in Romania – IEF-RO," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 44-50, June.
    56. Leonard I. Nakamura & Tom Stark, 2005. "Benchmark revisions and the U.S. personal saving rate," Working Papers 05-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    57. Dean Croushore, 2006. "Consumer confidence surveys: can they help us forecast consumer spending in real time?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 1-9.
    58. John Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "Electronic Transactions as High-Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity," Staff Working Papers 07-58, Bank of Canada.
    59. Warne, Anders, 2023. "DSGE model forecasting: rational expectations vs. adaptive learning," Working Paper Series 2768, European Central Bank.
    60. Luis Mario Hernández Acevedo, 2004. "Señales de política monetaria y tasas de interés en México," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 343-367, octubre-d.
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    7. Lukas Hoesch & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2023. "Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 355-387, July.
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    40. Roger D. Congleton & Youngshin Kim & Alexander Marsella, 2020. "On the stability of U.S. politics: post-sample forecasts and refinements of the Congleton–Shughart models of Social Security and Medicare benefit levels," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 183(1), pages 101-132, April.
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    43. H. Rad & R. Low & J. Miffre & R. Faff, 2023. "The commodity risk premium and neural networks," Post-Print hal-04322519, HAL.
    44. Parigi, Giuseppe & Golinelli, Roberto, 2005. "Short-Run Italian GDP Forecasting and Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    45. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Camille Logeay, 2019. "Short-Term macroeconomic evaluation of the German minimum wage with a VAR/VECM," IMK Working Paper 197-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    46. Tony Chernis & Taylor Webley, 2022. "Nowcasting Canadian GDP with Density Combinations," Discussion Papers 2022-12, Bank of Canada.
    47. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2009. "Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1187-1206.
    48. Domenico Giannone & Jérôme Henry & Magdalena Lalik & Michèle Modugno, 2010. "An Area Wide Real Time Data Base for the Euro Area," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-026, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    49. Nicolas Reigl, 2023. "Noise shocks and business cycle fluctuations in three major European Economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 603-657, February.
    50. Biswas, Anindya, 2014. "The output gap and expected security returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 131-140.
    51. Emilia Tomczyk, 2013. "End of sample vs. real time data: perspectives for analysis of expectations," Working Papers 68, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    52. Chrystalleni Aristidou & Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2015. "Real-Time Data should be used in Forecasting Output Growth and Recessionary Events in the US," Discussion Papers 2015/13, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    53. Joan Paredes & Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez, 2009. "A quarterly fiscal database for the euro area based on intra-annual fiscal information," Working Papers 0935, Banco de España.
    54. Ahsan ul Haq Satti & Wasim Shahid Malik, 2017. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 56(3), pages 193-219.
    55. Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan & Tian, Jing & Norden, Simon van, 2012. "On trend-cycle decomposition and data revision," Research Report 12009-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    56. Clements Michael P., 2012. "Forecasting U.S. Output Growth with Non-Linear Models in the Presence of Data Uncertainty," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, January.
    57. Bram van Os & Dick van Dijk, 2020. "Accelerating Peak Dating in a Dynamic Factor Markov-Switching Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-057/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Dec 2020.
    58. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2019. "Assessing Nowcast Accuracy of US GDP Growth in Real Time: The Role of Booms and Busts," Working Papers 2019/01, Latvijas Banka.
    59. Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, "undated". "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data: Forecasting US output growth and inflation," Economic Research Papers 269743, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    60. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John C. Williams & Noah Williams, 2005. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Working Papers 11523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    61. Fred Joutz & Michael P. Clements & Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 121-136.
    62. Denis Shibitov & Mariam Mamedli, 2021. "Forecasting Russian Cpi With Data Vintages And Machine Learning Techniques," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps70, Bank of Russia.
    63. Givens, Gregory, 2016. "Do data revisions matter for DSGE estimation?," MPRA Paper 70932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    64. Mandler, Martin, 2007. "Decomposing Federal Funds Rate forecast uncertainty using real-time data," MPRA Paper 13498, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2009.
    65. Asimakopoulos, Stylianos & Lalik, Magdalena & Paredes, Joan & Salvado García, José, 2023. "GDP revisions are not cool: the impact of statistical agencies’ trade-off," Working Paper Series 2857, European Central Bank.
    66. Leonard I. Nakamura & Tom Stark, 2007. "Mismeasured personal saving and the permanent income hypothesis," Working Papers 07-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    67. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2010. "Oil and US GDP: A real-time out-of-sample examination," Working Paper 2010/18, Norges Bank.
    68. Cath Sleeman, 2006. "Analysis of revisions to quarterly GDP - a real-time database," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, pages 1-44., March.
    69. Heather L. R. Tierney, 2019. "Forecasting with the Nonparametric Exclusion-from-Core Inflation Persistence Model Using Real-Time Data," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 39-63, February.
    70. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    71. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    72. S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "Data Uncertainty in General Equilibrium," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 131, Society for Computational Economics.
    73. Bo Zhang, 2019. "Real‐time inflation forecast combination for time‐varying coefficient models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 175-191, April.
    74. Kenza Benhima & Céline Poilly, 2021. "Does demand noise matter? Identification and implications," Post-Print hal-03173423, HAL.
    75. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Calling recessions in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1006-1026, October.
    76. Jens Hogrefe, 2008. "Forecasting data revisions of GDP: a mixed frequency approach," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 92(3), pages 271-296, August.
    77. João Valle e Azevedo & Ana Pereira, 2008. "Approximating and Forecasting Macroeconomic Signals in Real-Time," Working Papers w200819, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    78. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage Combination from a Real-Time Dataset," CESifo Working Paper Series 3372, CESifo.
    79. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "The output gap and stock returns: Do cyclical fluctuations predict portfolio returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 40-50.
    80. Nicholas Taylor, 2014. "Economic forecast quality: information timeliness and data vintage effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 145-174, February.
    81. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2023. "Raiders of the lost high‐frequency forecasts: New data and evidence on the efficiency of the Fed's forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 88-104, January.
    82. Check, Adam J. & Nolan, Anna K. & Schipper, Tyler C., 2018. "Forecasting GDP: Do Revisions Matter?," MPRA Paper 86194, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    83. Ronald Indergand & Stefan Leist, 2014. "A Real-Time Data Set for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(IV), pages 331-352, December.
    84. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    85. Alberto Caruso & Laura Coroneo, 2019. "Predicting interest rates in real-time," Discussion Papers 19/18, Department of Economics, University of York.
    86. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2011. "Real-time data revisions and the PCE measure of inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1763-1773, July.
    87. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2010. "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 145-156, March.
    88. Benoit Bellone & David Saint-Martin, 2004. "Detecting Turning Points with Many Predictors through Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics 0407001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    89. Alessandra Amendola & Vincenzo Candila & Antonio Scognamillo, 2017. "On the influence of US monetary policy on crude oil price volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 155-178, February.
    90. Cláudia Duarte & Fátima Cardoso, 2009. "Data Revisions: The Case of Portuguese Exports and Imports," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    91. Michael Pedersen, 2010. "Extracting GDP Signals From the Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity: Evidence From Chilean Real-Time Data," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 595, Central Bank of Chile.
    92. Andrew C. Chang & Phillip Li, 2018. "Measurement Error In Macroeconomic Data And Economics Research: Data Revisions, Gross Domestic Product, And Gross Domestic Income," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1846-1869, July.
    93. Zhang, Bo & Chan, Joshua C.C. & Cross, Jamie L., 2020. "Stochastic volatility models with ARMA innovations: An application to G7 inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1318-1328.
    94. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin, 2001. "Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Working Papers 8379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    95. Steve Cook, 2008. "Cross‐data‐vintage Encompassing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 849-865, December.
    96. Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment," Discussion Papers 18-9, Bank of Canada.
    97. Alexandre Bonnet R. Costa & Pedro Cavalcanti G. Ferreira & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Osmani Teixeira C. Guillén & João Victor Issler & Artur Brasil Fialho Rodrigues, 2023. "Predicting Recessions in (almost) Real Time in a Big-data Setting," Working Papers Series 587, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    98. S Cook, 2011. "An historical perspective on the forecasting performance of the Treasury Model: Forecasting the growth in UK consumers' expenditure," Post-Print hal-00665455, HAL.
    99. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Working Papers 2008-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    100. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    101. Baetje, Fabian & Friedrici, Karola, 2016. "Does cross-sectional forecast dispersion proxy for macroeconomic uncertainty? New empirical evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 38-43.
    102. Erick Lahura, 2017. "Monetary Aggregates and Monetary Policy in Peru," BCAM Working Papers 1704, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    103. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    104. Hui Feng, 2005. "Real-Time or Current Vintage: Does the Type of Data Matter for Forecasting and Model Selection?," Econometrics Working Papers 0515, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    105. Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2008. "Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante stock return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 274-290.
    106. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Neuwirth, Stefan, 2012. "The impact of seasonal and price adjustments on the predictability of German GDP revisions," Kiel Working Papers 1753, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    107. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    108. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Altavilla, Carlo, 2007. "Information combination and forecast (st)ability evidence from vintages of time-series data," Working Paper Series 846, European Central Bank.
    109. João Valle e Azevedo & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Rational vs. Professional Forecasts," Working Papers w201114, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    110. Martin Slanicay & Jan Čapek & Miroslav Hloušek, 2016. "Some Notes On Problematic Issues In Dsge Models," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 61(210), pages 79-100, July - Se.
    111. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2006. "Informed and strategic order flow in the bond markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 874, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    112. Genre, Véronique & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Timmermann, Allan, 2013. "Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 108-121.
    113. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Revisions to PCE inflation measures: implications for monetary policy," Working Papers 08-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    114. Yi Zheng & James Rossiter, 2006. "Using Monthly Indicators to Predict Quarterly GDP," Staff Working Papers 06-26, Bank of Canada.
    115. Semieniuk, Gregor, 2024. "Inconsistent definitions of GDP: Implications for estimates of decoupling," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    116. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 698-714.
    117. Capek Jan, 2015. "Estimating DSGE model parameters in a small open economy: Do real-time data matter?," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 15(1), pages 89-114, March.
    118. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2010. "The business cycle and the equity risk premium in real time," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-722, October.
    119. D'Elia, Enrico, 2012. "A case study: the revisions and forecasts of Euro Area quarterly GDP," MPRA Paper 40264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    120. Aruoba, Boragan, 2005. "Data Revisions Are Not Well-Behaved," CEPR Discussion Papers 5271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    121. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun Vahey, 2008. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    122. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "Does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 99-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    123. Mandler, Martin, 2012. "Decomposing Federal Funds Rate forecast uncertainty using time-varying Taylor rules and real-time data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 228-245.

  19. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "Does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 99-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Tom Stark, 2000. "Does current-quarter information improve quarterly forecasts for the U.S. economy?," Working Papers 00-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Fackler, James S., 2002. "Comment on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 559-562, December.
    3. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
    4. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for marcoeconomists: does the data vintage matter?," Working Papers 99-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    6. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    7. Andrew Stone & Sharon Wardrop, 2002. "Real-time National Accounts Data," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2002-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Hui Feng, 2005. "Real-Time or Current Vintage: Does the Type of Data Matter for Forecasting and Model Selection?," Econometrics Working Papers 0515, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    9. C. Alan Garner, 2002. "Consumer confidence after September 11," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 87(Q II).

  20. Dean Croushore, 1998. "Evaluating inflation forecasts," Working Papers 98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Milani, Fabio, 2008. "Learning, monetary policy rules, and macroeconomic stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3148-3165, October.
    2. Pfajfar, Damjan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2010. "Heterogeneity, learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 426-444, September.
    3. Sreyoshi Das & Camelia M. Kuhnen & Stefan Nagel, 2017. "Socioeconomic Status and Macroeconomic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 24045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 8695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Nicholas S. Souleles, 2001. "Consumer Sentiment: Its Rationality and Usefulness in Forecasting Expenditure - Evidence from the Michigan Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 8410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Monetary policy actions and long-run inflation expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Ricardo Nunes, 2009. "On the Epidemiological Microfoundations of Sticky Information," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 643-657, October.
    8. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
    9. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2002. "Forecasting coin demand," Working Papers 02-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    10. Bernardo Candia & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2020. "Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents," NBER Working Papers 27800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Croushore, Dean, 2005. "Do consumer-confidence indexes help forecast consumer spending in real time?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 435-450, December.
    12. Pablo Pincheira & Roberto Álvarez, 2012. "Evaluation of Short Run Inflation Forecasts in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 674, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Departmental Working Papers 200317, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    14. Jan Babecky & Jiri Podpiera, 2008. "Inflation Forecasts Errors in the Czech Republic: Evidence from a Panel of Institutions," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 6, pages 77-85, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    15. Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2004. "Why were changes in the federal funds rate smaller in the 1990s?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 339-354.
    16. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Dean Croushore, 2006. "An evaluation of inflation forecasts from surveys using real-time data," Working Papers 06-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    18. Glenn Rudebusch, 2000. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0065, Econometric Society.
    19. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2014. "Forecast rationality tests in the presence of instabilities, with applications to Federal Reserve and survey forecasts," Economics Working Papers 1426, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2014.
    20. Croushore, D., 2002. "Comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 483-489, December.
    21. Timmermann Allan & Capistrán Carlos, 2006. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 2006-07, Banco de México.
    22. Ricardo Nunes, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1161-1172, September.
    23. Raymond Struyk & Douglas Wissoker & Ioulia Zaitseva, 2004. "Economic Forecasting for Large Russian Cities," ERSA conference papers ersa04p318, European Regional Science Association.
    24. Reid, Monique & Siklos, Pierre & Plessis, Stan Du, 2021. "What drives household inflation expectations in South Africa? Demographics and anchoring under inflation targeting," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
    25. Emiliano Santoro & Damjan Pfajfar, 2006. "Heterogeneity and learning in inflation expectation formation: an empirical assessment," Department of Economics Working Papers 0607, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    26. Laurence Ball & Dean Croushore, 1998. "Expectations and the effects of monetary policy," Working Papers 98-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    27. Bharat Trehan, 2009. "Survey measures of expected inflation and the inflation process," Working Paper Series 2009-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    28. Ivo Arnold & Evert Vrugt, 2012. "Forecasting with the Taylor rule," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(18), pages 1501-1510, September.
    29. Grant, Alan P. & Thomas, Lloyd B., 2001. "Supply shocks and the rationality of inflation forecasts," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 515-532.
    30. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2003. "Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 67-77.

  21. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1996. "Evaluating McCallum's rule when monetary policy matters," Working Papers 96-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Mirfatah, Maryam & Gabriel, Vasco J. & Levine, Paul, 2025. "LAMP, informality and monetary growth rules in an emerging economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Jung, Alexander, 2018. "Does McCallum’s rule outperform Taylor’s rule during the financial crisis?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 9-21.
    3. Muneesh Kapur & Michael Debabrata Patra, 2012. "Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for India," IMF Working Papers 2012/118, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 1998. "Evaluating McCallum's Rule When Monetary Policy Matters," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 451-485, July.

  22. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1994. "Evaluating McCallum's rule for monetary policy," Working Papers 94-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Fair, Ray C. & Howrey, E. Philip, 1996. "Evaluating alternative monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 173-193, October.
    2. Ray C. Fair, 2001. "Actual Federal Reserve policy behavior and interest rate rules," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 61-72.
    3. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Estimated, Calibrated, and Optimal Interest Rate Rules," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1258, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Ray Fair, 2003. "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 245-256, June.

  23. Dean Croushore, 1993. "Ricardian equivalence with wage-rate uncertainty," Working Papers 93-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Heathcote, Jonathan, 1999. "Fiscal Policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Incomplete Markets," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 319, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 28 Jul 1999.
    2. Douglas W. Elmendorf & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1998. "Government Debt," NBER Working Papers 6470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Simon Grant & John Quiggin, 2002. "The Risk Premium for Equity: Implications for the Proposed Diversification of the Social Security Fund," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1104-1115, September.
    4. Koumparoulis, Dimitrios, 2006. "Ευρωπαϊκή Δημοσιονομική Πολιτική Και Οικονομική Μεγέθυνση: Η Νεοκλασική Οικονομική Θεωρία Για Την Περίπτωση Της Ελλάδας [European Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: The Neoclassical Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 44310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Hideaki Tamura & Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2014. "A New Solution to the Equity Premium Puzzle and the Risk-Free Rate Puzzle: Theory and Evidence," Discussion Papers 1422, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    6. Torben M. Andersen, 2015. "Incentive And Insurance Effects Of Income Taxation," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 209-226, July.

  24. Shaghil Ahmed & Dean Croushore, 1992. "The marginal cost of funds with nonseparable public spending," Working Papers 92-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Walters, Michael, 2009. "The Marginal Cost of Public Funds and Tax Reform in Africa," TSE Working Papers 09-110, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    2. Cristian F. Sepulveda, 2025. "“Public goods, labor supply and benefit taxation”," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 32(3), pages 872-894, June.
    3. Louis Kaplow, 2003. "Public Goods and the Distribution of Income," NBER Working Papers 9842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Liqun Liu, 2006. "Combining Distributional Weights and the Marginal Cost of Funds," Public Finance Review, , vol. 34(1), pages 60-79, January.
    5. Warlters, Michael & Auriol, Emmanuelle, 2005. "The marginal cost of public funds in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3679, The World Bank.
    6. Liqun Liu & Andrew J. Rettenmaier & Thomas R. Saving, 2004. "A Generalized Approach to Multigeneration Project Evaluation," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(2), pages 377-396, October.
    7. José Manuel González Páramo, 2003. "Midiendo el coste marginal en bienestar de una reforma impositiva," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 166(3), pages 115-147, September.
    8. Liu, Liqun, 2003. "A marginal cost of funds approach to multi-period public project evaluation: implications for the social discount rate," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(7-8), pages 1707-1718, August.
    9. Mickaël Beaud & Thierry Blayac & Patrice Bougette & Soufiane Khoudmi & Philippe Mahenc & Stéphane Mussard, 2013. "Estimation du coût d'opportunité des fonds publics pour l'économie française," Working Papers halshs-01077141, HAL.
    10. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Warlters, Michael, 2007. "The Marginal Cost of Public Funds in Developing Countries: An Application to 38 African Countries," IDEI Working Papers 371, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    11. Strand, Jon, 2009. ""Revenue management"effects related to financial flows generated by climate policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5053, The World Bank.
    12. Can Erbil, 2004. "Trade Taxes Are Expensive," International Trade 0409002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. ERBIL Can, 2010. "Trade Taxes Are Better ?!? Short Answer: No," EcoMod2003 330700048, EcoMod.
    14. Louis Kaplow, 1993. "Should the Government's Allocation Branch be Concerned about the Distortionary Cost of Taxation and Distributive Effects?," NBER Working Papers 4566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Robinson, Sherman, 2002. "The influence of computable general equilibrium models on policy," TMD discussion papers 98, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    16. José Manuel González-Páramo, "undated". "Midiendo El Coste Marginal En Bienestar De Una Reforma Impositiva," Working Papers 32-02 Classification-JEL , Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.

  25. Dean Croushore & Ronald S. Koot, 1991. "A measure of Federal Reserve credibility," Working Papers 91-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Carola Conces Binder & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2023. "Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey," Staff Working Papers 23-18, Bank of Canada.
    2. Demertzis Maria & Marcellino Massimiliano & Viegi Nicola, 2012. "A Credibility Proxy: Tracking US Monetary Developments," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-36, June.
    3. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & McNamara, Dylan C., 2014. "Where is the Fed in the distribution of forecasters?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 296-312.
    4. Demertzis, Maria & Viegi, Nicola & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2008. "A Measure for Credibility: Tracking US Monetary Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 7036, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Baghestani, Hamid, 2008. "Federal Reserve versus private information: Who is the best unemployment rate predictor," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 101-110.
    6. Antulio N. Bomfim & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1997. "Opportunistic and deliberate disinflation under imperfect credibility," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. David R. Johnson, 1997. "Expected Inflation in Canada 1988-1995: An Evaluation of Bank of Canada Credibility and the Effect of Inflation Targets," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 23(3), pages 233-258, September.

  26. Dean Croushore, 1990. "Taxation as insurance against income uncertainty," Working Papers 90-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Michel Normandin, 1993. "Épargne de précaution et revenu de travail incertain : un survol de la littérature," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 69(4), pages 347-364.
    2. Croushore, Dean, 1996. "Ricardian Equivalence with Wage-Rate Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 279-293, August.

  27. Dean Croushore, 1990. "Ricardian equivalence under income uncertainty," Working Papers 90-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Michel Normandin, 1993. "Épargne de précaution et revenu de travail incertain : un survol de la littérature," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 69(4), pages 347-364.
    2. Croushore, Dean, 1996. "Ricardian Equivalence with Wage-Rate Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 279-293, August.

  28. Ahmed, S. & Croushore, D.D., 1988. "Substitution Effects And The Marginal Welfare Cost Of Taxation," Papers 0-88-6, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Don Fullerton, 1989. "If Labor is Inelastic, Are Taxes Still Distorting?," NBER Working Papers 2810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Charles L. Ballard & Don Fullerton, 1990. "Distortionary Taxes and the Provision of Public Goods," NBER Working Papers 3506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Articles

  1. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2019. "Fifty Years of the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 4(4), pages 1-11, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Chini, Emilio Zanetti, 2023. "Can we estimate macroforecasters’ mis-behavior?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. David Altig & Scott R. Baker & Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Scarlet Chen & Steven J. Davis & Julia Leather & Brent H. Meyer & Emil Mihaylov & Paul Mizen & Nicholas B. Parker & T, 2020. "Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 27418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Athanasios Orphanides, 2025. "Enhancing resilience with natural growth targeting," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 91(4), pages 1420-1439, April.
    5. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 163, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    6. Clements, Michael P. & Rich, Robert W. & Tracy, Joseph, 2025. "An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    7. Chad Fulton & Kirstin Hubrich, 2021. "Forecasting US Inflation in Real Time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Allayioti, Anastasia & Arioli, Rodolfo & Bates, Colm & Botelho, Vasco & Fagandini, Bruno & Fonseca, Luís & Healy, Peter & Meyler, Aidan & Minasian, Ryan & Zahrt, Octavia, 2024. "A look back at 25 years of the ECB SPF," Occasional Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
    9. Manzan, Sebastiano, 2021. "Are professional forecasters Bayesian?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    10. Li Sun & Yongchen Zhao, 2025. "Forecasting Follies: Machine Learning from Human Errors," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(2), pages 1-25, January.
    11. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2021. "The reaction of inflation forecasts to news about the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 256-264.
    12. Deniz Igan & Thomas Lambert & Prachi Mishra & Eden Zhang, 2024. "The Politics of the Paycheck Protection Program," Working Papers 133, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    13. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," Working Papers 0686, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    14. Dimitriadis, Timo & Gneiting, Tilmann & Jordan, Alexander I. & Vogel, Peter, 2024. "Evaluating probabilistic classifiers: The triptych," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1101-1122.
    15. Fabian Kruger & Hendrik Plett, 2022. "Prediction intervals for economic fixed-event forecasts," Papers 2210.13562, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    16. Jianhao Lin & Lexuan Sun & Yixin Yan, 2025. "Simulating Macroeconomic Expectations using LLM Agents," Papers 2505.17648, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    17. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2023. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    18. Cole, Stephen J. & Milani, Fabio, 2021. "Heterogeneity in individual expectations, sentiment, and constant-gain learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 627-650.
    19. Francis X. Diebold & Aaron Mora & Minchul Shin, 2025. "On the Wisdom of Crowds (of Economists)," PIER Working Paper Archive 25-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    20. Ganics, Gergely & Mertens, Elmar & Clark, Todd E., 2023. "What Is the Predictive Value of SPF Point and Density Forecasts?," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277622, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

  2. Dean Croushore & Hossein S. Kazemi, 2019. "Teaching courses in macroeconomics and monetary policy with Bloomberg analytics," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 108-128, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Ward, Frank A., 2023. "Innovations for the Water Resource Economics Curriculum: Training the Next Generation," Applied Economics Teaching Resources (AETR), Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 5(3), September.
    2. Mendez-Carbajo, Diego & Dellachiesa, Alejandro, 2023. "Choice of data visualization tool: FRED or spreadsheets?," International Review of Economics Education, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).

  3. Croushore, Dean & van Norden, Simon, 2019. "Fiscal Surprises at the FOMC," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1583-1595.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Dean Croushore, 2019. "Revisions to PCE Inflation Measures: Implications for Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(4), pages 241-265, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Dean Croushore & Simon van Norden, 2018. "Fiscal Forecasts at the FOMC: Evidence from the Greenbooks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 933-945, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Dean Croushore & Katherine Marsten, 2016. "Reassessing the Relative Power of the Yield Spread in Forecasting Recessions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 1183-1191, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Marie Dufour & Joachim Wilde, 2018. "Weak identification in probit models with endogenous covariates," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 102(4), pages 611-631, October.
    2. Murè, Pina & Paccione, Cosimo & Marzioni, Stefano & Giorgio, Saverio, 2024. "How electricity and natural gas prices affect banking systemic risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PA).
    3. Boonman, Tjeerd M., 2023. "Portfolio capital flows before and after the Global Financial Crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kapadia, Sujit & Şimşek, Özgür, 2021. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: evidence from a machine learning approach," Working Paper Series 2614, European Central Bank.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    6. Patrick J. Coe & Shaun P. Vahey, 2025. "Reassessing the Predictive Power of the Yield Spread for Recessions in the United States," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 231-236, March.
    7. Kose, M. Ayhan & Claessens, Stijn, 2017. "Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 12460, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Boonman, Tjeerd, 2023. "Have drivers of portfolio capital flows changed since the Global Financial Crisis?," MPRA Paper 116507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Sun, Jiandong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao, 2021. "Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

  7. Dean Croushore, 2015. "Teaching an Economics Capstone Course Based on Current Issues in Monetary Policy," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 504-512, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Andre R. Neveu & Angela M. Smith, 2023. "Engaging Students, Faculty, and External Professionals with a Data-Centered Group Capstone Project," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 408-432, June.
    2. Mike Aguilar & Daniel Soques, 2015. "Fiscal Challenge: An Experiential Exercise in Policy Making," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 285-299, July.
    3. Gail M. Hoyt & KimMarie McGoldrick, 2017. "Promoting Undergraduate Research in Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 655-659, May.
    4. Depro, Brooks & Rouse, Kathryn, 2022. "Adapting the case method in an economics capstone research course," International Review of Economics Education, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).

  8. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Croushore Dean, 2010. "An Evaluation of Inflation Forecasts from Surveys Using Real-Time Data," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Dean Croushore, 2010. "Philadelphia Fed forecasting surveys: their value for research," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 1-11.

    Cited by:

    1. Dean Croushore & Katherine Marsten, 2016. "Do GDP Forecasts Respond Efficiently to Changes in Interest Rates?," Working Papers 16-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Allayioti, Anastasia & Arioli, Rodolfo & Bates, Colm & Botelho, Vasco & Fagandini, Bruno & Fonseca, Luís & Healy, Peter & Meyler, Aidan & Minasian, Ryan & Zahrt, Octavia, 2024. "A look back at 25 years of the ECB SPF," Occasional Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
    3. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Shields, Kalvinder, 2016. "Information rigidities and the news-adjusted output gap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-17.
    4. Sauter, Oliver, 2012. "Assessing uncertainty in Europe and the US: is there a common uncertainty factor?," MPRA Paper 38031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ravi Jagannathan & Srikant Marakani, 2015. "Price-Dividend Ratio Factor Proxies for Long-Run Risks," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-47.

  11. Dean Croushore, 2006. "Consumer confidence surveys: can they help us forecast consumer spending in real time?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 1-9.

    Cited by:

    1. Hatice Gokce Karasoy & Caglar Yunculer, 2015. "The Explanatory Power and the Forecast Performance of Consumer Confidence Indices for Private Consumption Growth in Turkey," Working Papers 1519, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

  12. Croushore, Dean & Evans, Charles L., 2006. "Data revisions and the identification of monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1135-1160, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Croushore, Dean, 2005. "Do consumer-confidence indexes help forecast consumer spending in real time?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 435-450, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Ball, Laurence & Croushore, Dean, 2003. "Expectations and the Effects of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 473-484, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2003. "A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 605-617, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Reply to the comments on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 563-567, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 305-340.
    2. Andrejs Bessonovs, 2015. "Suite of Latvia's GDP forecasting models," Working Papers 2015/01, Latvijas Banka.
    3. Götz, T.B. & Hecq, A.W. & Urbain, J.R.Y.J., 2014. "Combining distributions of real-time forecasts: An application to U.S. growth," Research Memorandum 027, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    4. Ambrose, Brent W. & Coulson, N. Edward & Yoshida, Jiro, 2018. "Reassessing Taylor rules using improved housing rent data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 243-257.
    5. Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2016. "FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 574-589, October.
    6. Jalles, João Tovar, 2017. "On the rationality and efficiency of inflation forecasts: Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 175-189.
    7. Vasconcelos de Deus, Joseph David Barroso & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2017. "Fiscal forecasting performance in an emerging economy: An empirical assessment of Brazil," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 408-419.
    8. Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in real-time: A density combination approach," Working Paper 2011/11, Norges Bank.
    9. Clements, Michael P. & Beatriz Galvao, Ana, "undated". "Real-time Forecasting of Inflation and Output Growth in the Presence of Data Revisions," Economic Research Papers 270771, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    10. Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2014. "Green shoots and double dips in the euro area: A real time measure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 520-535.
    11. David de Antonio Liedo, 2014. "Nowcasting Belgium," Working Paper Research 256, National Bank of Belgium.
    12. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2007. "Forecast accuracy of the Japanese government: Its year-ahead GDP forecast is too optimistic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 68-85, January.
    13. Abel Rodríguez Tirado & Marcelo Delajara & Federico Hern�ndez �lvarez, 2016. "Nowcasting Mexico’s Short-Term GDP Growth in Real-Time: A Factor Model versus Professional Forecasters," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2016), pages 167-182.
    14. Allan W. Gregory & Hui Zhu, 2014. "Testing the value of lead information in forecasting monthly changes in employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(7), pages 505-514, April.
    15. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Frontiers of real-time data analysis," Working Papers 08-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    16. Raïsa Basselier & David Antonio Liedo & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact of Qualitative Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, April.
    17. Masahiro Ashiya, 2009. "Strategic bias and professional affiliations of macroeconomic forecasters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 120-130.
    18. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Dick van Dijk & Richard Paap, 2011. "Bayesian Forecasting of Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-093/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    19. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2016. "Improving the reliability of real-time output gap estimates using survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 358-373.
    20. Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Testing the rationality of forecast revisions made by the IMF and the OECD," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 25-36.
    21. Emilia Tomczyk, 2013. "End of sample vs. real time data: perspectives for analysis of expectations," Working Papers 68, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    22. Carmona, Carlos Capistran, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6v28v0b6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    23. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2010. "Have economic models' forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 808-835, October.
    24. Croushore, Dean, 2005. "Do consumer-confidence indexes help forecast consumer spending in real time?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 435-450, December.
    25. Daniel Detzer & Christian R. Proaño & Katja Rietzler & Sven Schreiber & Thomas Theobald & Sabine Stephan, 2012. "Verfahren der konjunkturellen Wendepunktbestimmung unter Berücksichtigung der Echtzeit-Problematik," IMK Studies 27-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    26. Carriero, Andrea & Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2015. "Forecasting with Bayesian multivariate vintage-based VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 757-768.
    27. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "A simple recursive forecasting model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 158-166, May.
    28. Benner, Joachim & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2005. "Was leisten Stimmungsindikatoren für die Prognose des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts in Deutschland? Eine Echtzeit-Analyse," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3725, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    29. Bouwman, Kees E. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2011. "Forecasting with real-time macroeconomic data: The ragged-edge problem and revisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 784-792.
    30. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion," Working Papers 2011-05, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    31. Par Osterholm, 2008. "A structural Bayesian VAR for model-based fan charts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1557-1569.
    32. Berardi, Michele & Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2014. "A note on the representative adaptive learning algorithm," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 104-107.
    33. Pär Österholm, 2008. "Can forecasting performance be improved by considering the steady state? An application to Swedish inflation and interest rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 41-51.
    34. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Do corporate executives have accurate predictions for the economy? A directional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 167-174.
    35. Michael Kleemann & Gernot Mueller & Zeno Enders, 2015. "Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations," 2015 Meeting Papers 406, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    36. Kevin Aretz & David A. Peel, 2010. "Spreads versus professional forecasters as predictors of future output change," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 517-522.
    37. Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.
    38. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2019. "Did financial factors matter during the Great Recession?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 26-30.
    39. Sinclair, Tara M., 2019. "Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1108-1117.
    40. Croushore, D., 2002. "Comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 483-489, December.
    41. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmueller, 2020. "Business cycle dating and forecasting with real-time Swiss GDP data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 73-105, January.
    42. Joao Tovar Jalles, 2015. "How Quickly is News Incorporated in Fiscal Forecasts?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2802-2812.
    43. Marc-Oliver Pohle, 2020. "The Murphy Decomposition and the Calibration-Resolution Principle: A New Perspective on Forecast Evaluation," Papers 2005.01835, arXiv.org.
    44. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2012. "Is the Purchasing Managers' Index useful for assessing the economy's strength? A directional analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1302-1311.
    45. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2006. "Forecast accuracy and product differentiation of Japanese Institutional Forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 395-401.
    46. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2018. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 131-145, January.
    47. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martinez-Martin, 2014. "Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 347-364, August.
    48. Götz, Thomas B. & Hecq, Alain & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2016. "Combining forecasts from successive data vintages: An application to U.S. growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-74.
    49. Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Are 16-month-ahead forecasts useful? A directional analysis of Japanese GDP forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 201-207.
    50. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2008. "Real-time squared: A real-time data set for real-time GDP forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 368-385.
    51. Kosei Fukuda, 2007. "Forecasting real-time data allowing for data revisions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 429-444.
    52. Eric Ghysels & Casidhe Horan & Emanuel Moench, 2012. "Forecasting through the rear-view mirror: data revisions and bond return predictability," Staff Reports 581, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    53. Bernhardsen, Tom & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jore, Anne Sofie & Roisland, Oistein, 2005. "Real-time data for Norway: Challenges for monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 333-349, December.
    54. Eddie Casey & Diarmaid Smyth, 2016. "Revisions to Macroeconomic Data: Ireland and the OECD," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(1), pages 33-68.
    55. Cecilia Frale & Valentina Raponi, 2011. "Revisions in ocial data and forecasting," Working Papers LuissLab 1194, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    56. Jaqueson K. Galimberti & Marcelo L. Moura, 2014. "Improving the reliability of real-time Hodrick-Prescott Filtering using survey forecasts," KOF Working papers 14-360, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    57. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
    58. Knut Are Aastveit & Claudia Foroni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Density forecasts with MIDAS models," Working Papers No 3/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    59. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2014. "Tracking world trade and GDP in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 847-862.
    60. Vogt Gerit, 2007. "Analyse der Prognoseeigenschaften von ifo-Konjunkturindikatoren unter Echtzeitbedingungen / The Forecasting Performance of ifo-indicators Under Real-time Conditions," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 227(1), pages 87-101, February.

  18. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  19. Laurence Ball & Dean Croushore, 2001. "How do forecasts respond to changes in monetary policy?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 9-16.

    Cited by:

    1. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey & Fergal A. O'Connor, 2014. "Rationality in Precious Metals Forward Markets: Evidence of Behavioural Deviations in the Gold Markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp462, IIIS.

  20. Dean Croushore, 1999. "How useful are forecasts of corporate profits?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 3-12.

    Cited by:

    1. Baghestani, Hamid & Khallaf, Ashraf, 2012. "Predictions of growth in U.S. corporate profits: Asymmetric vs. symmetric loss," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 222-229.

  21. Dean Croushore, 1998. "Low inflation: the surprise of the 1990s," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jul, pages 3-12.

    Cited by:

    1. Don H. Kim, 2009. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 519-544.

  22. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 1998. "Evaluating McCallum's Rule When Monetary Policy Matters," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 451-485, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Dean Croushore, 1997. "The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 15-27.

    Cited by:

    1. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sorensen, 2001. "The Strategy of Professional Forecasting," Discussion Papers 01-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    2. Joseph Palardy & Tomi Ovaska, 2015. "Decomposing household, professional and market forecasts on inflation: a dynamic factor model analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(20), pages 2092-2101, April.
    3. Alexandre Kohlhas, 2018. "Asymmetric Attention," 2018 Meeting Papers 1040, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Pat McAllister & Graeme Newell & George Matysiak, 2005. "Analysing Uk Real Estate Market Forecast Disagreement," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2005-13, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    5. Sharon Kozicki & P. A. Tinsley, 2006. "Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation," Staff Working Papers 06-46, Bank of Canada.
    6. Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Stock Returns and Expected Business Conditions: Half a Century of Direct Evidence," NBER Working Papers 11736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    8. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo & Wolfers, Justin, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Research Papers 1807, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    9. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill & Tom Stark, 2002. "Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: evidence from the Livingston Survey," Working Papers 02-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    10. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2011. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," CREATES Research Papers 2011-37, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    11. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2016. "Non-Linear Phillips Curves with Inflation Regime-Switching," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-078, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Javier Turen & Isaac Baley, 2025. "Lumpy Forecasts," Working Papers 1476, Barcelona School of Economics.
    13. Carola Binder & Rupal Kamdar, 2022. "Expected and Realized Inflation in Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 131-156, Summer.
    14. Alain Abou & Georges Prat, 2009. "The dynamics of U.S. equity risk premia: lessons from professionals'view," Working Papers hal-04140869, HAL.
    15. Alain Abou & Georges Prat, 1986. "Ex-ante risk premia in the US stock market: analysing experts' behaviour at the individual level," Post-Print halshs-00172883, HAL.
    16. Higgins, Matthew L. & Mishra, Sagarika, 2014. "State dependent asymmetric loss and the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 627-632.
    17. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2017. "Exchange rate pass through, cost channel to monetary policy transmission, adaptive learning, and the price puzzle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 69-82.
    18. David Andolfatto & Scott Hendry & Kevin Moran, 2007. "Are Inflation Expectations Rational?," Working Paper series 27_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    19. Veress, Aron & Kaiser, Lars, 2017. "Forecasting quality of professionals: Does affiliation matter?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 159-168.
    20. Pat McAllister & Graeme Newell & George Matysiak, 2005. "An Evaluation Of The Performance Of UK Real Estate Forecasters," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2005-23, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    21. Lloyd B. Thomas, 1999. "Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 125-144, Fall.
    22. Dean Croushore, 1998. "Evaluating inflation forecasts," Working Papers 98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    23. Davies, Antony, 2006. "A framework for decomposing shocks and measuring volatilities derived from multi-dimensional panel data of survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 373-393.
    24. Dean Croushore, 2006. "An evaluation of inflation forecasts from surveys using real-time data," Working Papers 06-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    25. da Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira, 2005. "Is there too much certainty when measuring uncertainty," MPRA Paper 16383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Pesaran, M.H. & Weale, M., 2005. "Survey Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0536, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    27. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Luba Petersen, 2019. "Central Bank Communication That Works: Lessons from Lab Experiments," Staff Working Papers 19-21, Bank of Canada.
    28. Jonsson, Thomas & Österholm, Pär, 2009. "The Properties of Survey-Based Inflation Expectations in Sweden," Working Papers 114, National Institute of Economic Research.
    29. Markiewicz, Agnieszka & Pick, Andreas, 2014. "Adaptive learning and survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 685-707.
    30. Dean Croushore, 2010. "Philadelphia Fed forecasting surveys: their value for research," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 1-11.
    31. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," Staff Working Papers 16-7, Bank of Canada.
    32. David Andolfatto & Scott Hendry & Kevin Moran, 2002. "Inflation Expectations and Learning about Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 02-30, Bank of Canada.
    33. Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & James Yetman & Egon Zakrajsek, 2023. "The two-regime view of inflation," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 133.
    34. Michelle L. Barnes & Zvi Bodie & Robert K. Triest & J. Christina Wang, 2009. "TIPS scorecard: are TIPS accomplishing what they were supposed to accomplish?: can they be improved?," Public Policy Discussion Paper 09-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    35. Yash P. Mehra, 2002. "Survey measures of expected inflation : revisiting the issues of predictive content and rationality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 17-36.
    36. Hayat, Aziz & Mishra, Sagarika, 2010. "Federal reserve monetary policy and the non-linearity of the Taylor rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1292-1301, September.
    37. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2003. "Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 67-77.
    38. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 6090, CESifo.
    39. Kim, Insu & Kim, Minsoo, 2009. "Irrational Bias in Inflation Forecasts," MPRA Paper 16447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Jean Sepulveda-Umanzor, 2004. "The Relation Between Macroeconomic Uncertainty And The Expected Performance Of the Economy," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 304, Econometric Society.
    41. Andrew Levin & John B. Taylor, 2010. "Falling Behind the Curve: A Positive Analysis of Stop-Start Monetary Policies and the Great Inflation," NBER Working Papers 15630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Ethan Struby & Christina Farhart, 2024. "Inflation Expectations and Political Polarization: Evidence from the Cooperative Election Study," Working Papers 2024-01, Carleton College, Department of Economics.

  24. Dean Croushore, 1996. "Inflation forecasts: how good are they?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 15-25.

    Cited by:

    1. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wandi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Basit Zafar & Olivier Armantier, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on their Beliefs?," 2012 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Dean Croushore, 1999. "How useful are forecasts of corporate profits?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 3-12.
    3. Dean Croushore, 1998. "Low inflation: the surprise of the 1990s," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jul, pages 3-12.
    4. Austin Murphy & Anandi Sahu, 2001. "Empirical evidence of a positive inflation premium being incorporated into stock prices," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 29(2), pages 177-185, June.
    5. Silverio Foresi & Alessandro Penati & George Pennacchi, 1997. "Estimating the cost of U.S. indexed bonds," Working Papers (Old Series) 9701, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    6. Tom Stark, 1997. "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 97-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    7. Dean Croushore, 1997. "The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 15-27.
    8. Lloyd B. Thomas, 1999. "Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 125-144, Fall.
    9. Palle S. Andersen, 1997. "Forecast errors and financial developments," BIS Working Papers 51, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Michael Berlemann & Forrest Nelson, 2005. "Forecasting Inflation via Experimental Stock Markets Some Results from Pilot Markets," ifo Working Paper Series 10, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    11. Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum & David S. Laster, 1997. "Rational bias in macroeconomic forecasts," Staff Reports 21, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Berlemann, Michael, 2001. "Forecasting inflation via electronic markets: Results from a prototype market," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 06/01, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    13. Grant, Alan P. & Thomas, Lloyd B., 2001. "Supply shocks and the rationality of inflation forecasts," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 515-532.
    14. Laurence Ball & Dean Croushore, 1995. "Expectations and the Effects of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Murphy, Austin & AlSalman, Zeina & Souropanis, Ioannis, 2025. "An investigation into the causes of stock market return deviations from real earnings yields," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    16. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Berlemann, Michael, 2008. "Forecasting the ECB's main refinancing rate. A field experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 379-383, May.

  25. Shaghil Ahmed & Dean Croushore, 1996. "The Marginal Cost of Funds With Nonseparable Public Spending," Public Finance Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 216-236, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  26. Croushore, Dean, 1996. "Ricardian Equivalence with Wage-Rate Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 279-293, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  27. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1995. "Evaluating McCallum's rule for monetary policy," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jan, pages 3-14.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  28. Croushore, Dean & Koot, Ronald S., 1994. "A measure of federal reserve credibility," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 215-231, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  29. Croushore, Dean, 1993. "Money in the utility function: Functional equivalence to a shopping-time model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 175-182.

    Cited by:

    1. Gerhard Rösl & Franz Seitz & Karl-Heinz Tödter, 2017. "Besser ohne Bargeld? Gesamtwirtschaftliche Wohlfahrtsverluste der Bargeldabschaffung," ROME Working Papers 201706, ROME Network.
    2. Dirk Niepelt, 2020. "Monetary Policy with Reserves and CBDC: Optimality, Equivalence, and Politics," CESifo Working Paper Series 8712, CESifo.
    3. Khazri, Afifa, 1999. "Contrats salariaux, rétention de main-d’œuvre et cycle économique [Wage Contracts, Labor Retention and Economic Cycle]," MPRA Paper 86755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Aronsson, Thomas & Ghosh, Sugata & Wendner, Ronald, 2020. "Positional Preferences and Efficiency in a Dynamic Economy," MPRA Paper 98425, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Xavier Ragot, 2014. "The case for a financial approach to money demand," Post-Print halshs-00978785, HAL.
    6. Araújo, Eurilton, 2015. "Monetary policy objectives and Money’s role in U.S. business cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 85-107.
    7. Franz Seitz & Markus A. Schmidt, 2014. "Money In Modern Macro Models: A Review of the Arguments," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 3, pages 156-174.
    8. Dirk Niepelt, 2022. "Money and Banking with Reserves and CBDC," Diskussionsschriften dp2212, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    9. José Isidro García de Paso, 2002. "The 1628 Castilian crydown: A test of competing theories of the price level," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 163(4), pages 71-92, December.
    10. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Jia, Pengfei, 2020. "Capital controls and welfare with cross-border bank capital flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    11. Khazri, Afifa, 1999. "Contrats salariaux, rétention de main-d’œuvre et cycle économique [Wage Contracts, Labor Retention and Economic Cycle]," MPRA Paper 86947, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, 2019. "Global Banking, Financial Spillovers, and Macroprudential Policy Coordination," BIS Working Papers 764, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Edward Chi Ho Tang, 2023. "The dynamics of the house price‐to‐income ratio: Theory and evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(1), pages 61-78, January.
    14. Gerhard Rösl & Franz Seitz & Karl-Heinz Tödter, 2019. "The Cost of Overcoming the Zero Lower-Bound: A Welfare Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-18, July.
    15. Duca, John V. & VanHoose, David D., 2004. "Recent developments in understanding the demand for money," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 247-272.
    16. Claus Brand & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Franz Seitz, 2003. "Narrow Money and the Business Cycle: Theoretical aspects and euro area evdence," Macroeconomics 0303012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Hasan Bakhshi & Ben Martin & Tony Yates, 2002. "How uncertain are the welfare costs of inflation?," Bank of England working papers 152, Bank of England.
    18. Khazri, Afifa, 2001. "Impact des chocs monétaires sur les variations du salaire réel [Monetary Shocks and Impact on Changes in Real Wages]," MPRA Paper 86772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Niepelt, Dirk, 2019. "On the equivalence of private and public money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 27-41.
    20. Taneli M�kinen & Lucio Sarno & Gabriele Zinna, 2019. "Risky bank guarantees," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1232, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    21. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mehl, Arnaud & Stracca, Livio, 2020. "Central bank digital currency in an open economy," Working Paper Series 2488, European Central Bank.
    22. Seitz, Franz & Rösl, Gerhard, 2022. "On the Stabilizing Role of Cash for Societies," MPRA Paper 113784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Joseph A. Ritter, 1994. "The transition from barter to fiat money," Working Papers 1994-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    24. Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz & Tödter, Karl-Heinz, 2017. "Doing away with cash? The welfare costs of abolishing cash," IMFS Working Paper Series 112, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    25. Luca Sessa, 2012. "Economic (in)stability under monetary targeting," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 858, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    26. Brand, Claus & Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Seitz, Franz, 2003. "Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money?," Working Paper Series 254, European Central Bank.
    27. Elena Sinelnikova-Muryleva, 2011. "Innovations in the sphere of payments and the money demand in Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 157P.
    28. Maxim Nikitin & Steven Russell, 2006. "Monetary policy arithmetic: reconciling theory with evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 348-374, February.
    29. José I. García de Paso, "undated". "The 1628 Castilian Crydown: A Test of Competing Theories of the Price Level," Studies on the Spanish Economy 103, FEDEA.
    30. Bas Aarle & Nina Budina, 1997. "Financial repression, money growth, and seignorage: The Polish experience," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(4), pages 683-707, December.
    31. khazri, Afifa, 2000. "Rigidités salariales, effort de travail variable et Fluctuations [Salary Rigidity, Variable Work Effort and Fluctuations]," MPRA Paper 86758, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Issam Samiri, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Firms' Underspending in Times of Abundant Credit," BCAM Working Papers 2102, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.

  30. Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15.

    Cited by:

    1. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 870, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Sinclair, Tara M. & Gamber, Edward N. & Stekler, Herman & Reid, Elizabeth, 2012. "Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 309-314.
    3. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2008. "Learning, Expectations Formation, and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2008-3, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    4. Capistrán Carlos & López Moctezuma Gabriel, 2008. "Experts' Macroeconomics Expectations: An Evaluation of Mexican Short-Run Forecasts," Working Papers 2008-11, Banco de México.
    5. Rebelo, Sérgio & Jaimovich, Nir, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Clements, Michael P., 2014. "Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-117.
    7. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sorensen, 2001. "The Strategy of Professional Forecasting," Discussion Papers 01-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    8. Söderlind, Paul, 2009. "The C-CAPM without ex post data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 721-729, December.
    9. Jose, Victor Richmond R. & Winkler, Robert L., 2008. "Simple robust averages of forecasts: Some empirical results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 163-169.
    10. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2004. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," International Finance Discussion Papers 804, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Güler, Mustafa Haluk & Keleş, Gürsu & Polat, Tandoğan, 2017. "An empirical decomposition of the liquidity premium in breakeven inflation rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 185-192.
    12. Christian Hepenstrick & Jason Blunier, 2022. "What were they thinking? Estimating the quarterly forecasts underlying annual growth projections," Working Papers 2022-05, Swiss National Bank.
    13. Clements, Michael P., 2019. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1240-1249.
    14. Gamber, Edward N. & Hakes, David R., 2005. "Is monetary policy important for forecasting real growth and inflation?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 177-187, March.
    15. Frédérique Bec & Patrick Kanda, 2019. "Is inflation driven by survey-based, VAR-based or myopic expectations?," Working Papers hal-02175836, HAL.
    16. Söderlind, Paul, 2009. "Why disagreement may not matter (much) for asset prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 73-82, June.
    17. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: from Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 78, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    18. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Discussion Paper Series 0801, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    19. Song, Haiyan & Wen, Long & Liu, Chang, 2019. "Density tourism demand forecasting revisited," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 379-392.
    20. Timmermann Allan & Capistrán Carlos, 2006. "Forecast Combination with Entry and Exit of Experts," Working Papers 2006-08, Banco de México.
    21. Clements, Michael P., 2012. "Do professional forecasters pay attention to data releases?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 297-308.
    22. Sebastiano Manzan, 2011. "Differential Interpretation in the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 993-1017, August.
    23. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2013. "Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 255-288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Roopesh Ranjan & Tilmann Gneiting, 2010. "Combining probability forecasts," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(1), pages 71-91, January.
    25. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo & Wolfers, Justin, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Research Papers 1807, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    26. Clements, Michael P., 2025. "Inconsistent survey histograms and point forecasts revisited," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    27. KOMINE Takao & BAN Kanemi & KAWAGOE Masaaki & YOSHIDA Hiroshi, 2009. "What Have We Learned from a Survey of Japanese Professional Forecasters? Taking Stock of Four Years of ESP Forecast Experience," ESRI Discussion paper series 214, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    28. Athanasios Orphanides, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    29. Clements, Michael P., "undated". "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth," Economic Research Papers 270629, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    30. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
    31. Söderlind, Paul, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 2499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Bec, Frédérique & Kanda, Patrick, 2020. "Is inflation driven by survey-based, VAR-based or myopic expectations? An empirical assessment from US real-time data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    33. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008. "Estimating fundamental cross-section dispersion from fixed event forecasts," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200801, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    34. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    35. Felix Geiger & Oliver Sauter & Kai D. Schmid, 2009. "The Camp View of Inflation Forecasts," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 320/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    36. Clements, Michael P. & Rich, Robert W. & Tracy, Joseph, 2025. "An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    37. Cars Hommes & Kostas Mavromatis & Tolga Özden & Mei Zhu, 2023. "Behavioral learning equilibria in New Keynesian models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1401-1445, November.
    38. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 8695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Dean Croushore, 1999. "How useful are forecasts of corporate profits?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 3-12.
    40. Dean Croushore & Katherine Marsten, 2016. "Do GDP Forecasts Respond Efficiently to Changes in Interest Rates?," Working Papers 16-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    41. Gortz, Christoph & John, Tsoukalas, 2011. "Learning, capital-embodied technology and aggregate fluctuations," MPRA Paper 35438, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2011.
    42. Dean Croushore, 1998. "Low inflation: the surprise of the 1990s," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jul, pages 3-12.
    43. Yingying Xu & Zhi‐Xin Liu & Chi‐Wei Su & Jaime Ortiz, 2019. "Gold and inflation: Expected inflation effect or carrying cost effect?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 380-398, December.
    44. Matei Demetrescu & Christoph Hanck & Robinson Kruse‐Becher, 2022. "Robust inference under time‐varying volatility: A real‐time evaluation of professional forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 1010-1030, August.
    45. Galbraith, John W. & van Norden, Simon, 2019. "Asymmetry in unemployment rate forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1613-1626.
    46. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Dick van Dijk & Richard Paap, 2011. "Bayesian Forecasting of Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-093/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    47. Alexandre Kohlhas & Tobias Broer, 2019. "Forecaster (Mis-)Behavior," 2019 Meeting Papers 1171, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    48. Clements, Michael P., 2024. "Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1238-1254.
    49. Silverio Foresi & Alessandro Penati & George Pennacchi, 1997. "Estimating the cost of U.S. indexed bonds," Working Papers (Old Series) 9701, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    50. Clements, Michael P., 2024. "Survey expectations and adjustments for multiple testing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 338-354.
    51. Higgins, Matthew L. & Mishra, Sagarika, 2014. "State dependent asymmetric loss and the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 627-632.
    52. Carmona, Carlos Capistran, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6v28v0b6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    53. Söderlind, Paul, 2009. "Inflation Risk Premia and Survey Evidence on Macroeconomic Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 7250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    54. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    55. Edge, Rochelle M. & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2007. "Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2421-2438, November.
    56. Michael Pedersen, 2010. "Una nota introductoria a la encuesta de Expectativas Económicas," Economic Statistics Series 82, Central Bank of Chile.
    57. Harvey, David I. & Newbold, Paul, 2003. "The non-normality of some macroeconomic forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-653.
    58. Baghestani, Hamid & Khallaf, Ashraf, 2012. "Predictions of growth in U.S. corporate profits: Asymmetric vs. symmetric loss," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 222-229.
    59. Brückbauer, Frank, 2022. "Do financial market experts know their theory? New evidence from survey data," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-092, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2022.
    60. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C, 2006. "Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge," CEPR Discussion Papers 5664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    61. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2003. "Modeling uncertainty: predictive accuracy as a proxy for predictive confidence," Staff Reports 161, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    62. Dean Croushore, 1997. "The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 15-27.
    63. Shaliastovich, Ivan, 2015. "Learning, confidence, and option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 18-42.
    64. Deniz Igan & Thomas Lambert & Prachi Mishra & Eden Zhang, 2024. "The Politics of the Paycheck Protection Program," Working Papers 133, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    65. Jan-Christoph Rülke & Maria Silgoner & Julia Wörz, 2012. "Herding Behavior of Business Cycle Forecasters in Times of Economic Crises," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 12-03, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    66. Eva A. Arnold, 2013. "The Role of Data Revisions and Disagreement in Professional Forecasts," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201303, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    67. Stephen C. Hora, 2010. "An Analytic Method for Evaluating the Performance of Aggregation Rules for Probability Densities," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(5), pages 1440-1449, October.
    68. Pooja Kapoor & Sujata Kar, 2024. "Do Central Bank Communications Influence Survey of Professional Forecasters? An Empirical Investigation," Business Perspectives and Research, , vol. 12(1), pages 100-112, January.
    69. Zeno Enders & Michael Kleemann & Gernot Müller, 2013. "Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 4548, CESifo.
    70. Robert L. Winkler & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. & Victor Richmond R. Jose, 2019. "Probability Forecasts and Their Combination: A Research Perspective," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 239-260, December.
    71. Dean Croushore, 1998. "Evaluating inflation forecasts," Working Papers 98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    72. Davies, Antony, 2006. "A framework for decomposing shocks and measuring volatilities derived from multi-dimensional panel data of survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 373-393.
    73. Eyting, Markus & Schmidt, Patrick, 2021. "Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    74. Paul Gallimore & Patrick McAllister, 2004. "Expert judgement in the Processes of Commercial Property Market Forecasting," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2004-11, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    75. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    76. Dean Croushore, 2006. "An evaluation of inflation forecasts from surveys using real-time data," Working Papers 06-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    77. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    78. Sauter, Oliver, 2012. "Assessing uncertainty in Europe and the US: is there a common uncertainty factor?," MPRA Paper 38031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    79. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    80. Capistrán Carlos, 2007. "Optimality Tests for Multi-Horizon Forecasts," Working Papers 2007-14, Banco de México.
    81. Dean Croushore, 2012. "Forecast bias in two dimensions," Working Papers 12-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    82. Kenza Benhima & Céline Poilly, 2021. "Does demand noise matter? Identification and implications," Post-Print hal-03173423, HAL.
    83. Christoph Hinkelmann & Steve Swidler, 2008. "Trading House Price Risk with Existing Futures Contracts," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 37-52, January.
    84. Marinovic, Iván & Ottaviani, Marco & Sorensen, Peter, 2013. "Forecasters’ Objectives and Strategies," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 690-720, Elsevier.
    85. Clements, Michael P., 2012. "US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968–2010," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 986, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    86. Clements, Michael P., "undated". "Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?," Economic Research Papers 270770, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    87. Rochelle Edge & Thomas Laubach, 2004. "Learning and Shifts in Long-Run Growth," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 123, Society for Computational Economics.
    88. Rebecca L Driver & Jennifer V Greenslade & Richard G Pierse, 2003. "The role of expectations in estimates of the NAIRU in the United States and the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 180, Bank of England.
    89. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    90. Timmermann Allan & Capistrán Carlos, 2006. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 2006-07, Banco de México.
    91. Paul Söderlind, 2006. "C-CAPM Refinements and the Cross-Section of Returns," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 20(1), pages 49-73, April.
    92. Massa, Massimo & Simonov, Andrei, 2005. "Is learning a dimension of risk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2605-2632, October.
    93. Sean D. Campbell, 2005. "Stock market volatility and the Great Moderation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    94. Robert G Murphy & Adam Rohde, 2018. "Rational Bias in Inflation Expectations," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 153-171, January.
    95. Ricardo Nunes, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1161-1172, September.
    96. Vredin, Anders & Söderlind, Paul & Söderström, Ulf, 2003. "Taylor Rules and the Predictability of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 3934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    97. Joseph G. Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter H. Ritchken, 2008. "Estimating real and nominal term structures using Treasury yields, inflation, inflation forecasts, and inflation swap rates," Working Papers (Old Series) 0810, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    98. Kajal Lahiri & J. George Wang, 2007. "The value of probability forecasts as predictors of cyclical downturns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 11-14.
    99. Yanwei Jia & Jussi Keppo & Ville Satopää, 2023. "Herding in Probabilistic Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2713-2732, May.
    100. Choy, Keen Meng & Leong, Kenneth & Tay, Anthony S., 2006. "Non-fundamental expectations and economic fluctuations: Evidence from professional forecasts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 446-460, June.
    101. Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2008. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    102. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2017. "Model and survey estimates of the term structure of US macroeconomic uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 591-604.
    103. Anderson, Evan W. & Ghysels, Eric & Juergens, Jennifer L., 2009. "The impact of risk and uncertainty on expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 233-263, November.
    104. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
    105. Padula, Mario & Backé, Peter, 2003. "Inflation dynamics and subjective expectations in the United States," Working Paper Series 222, European Central Bank.
    106. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2009. "Confidence Risk and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 14815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    107. Lahiri, Kajal & Peng, Huaming & Zhao, Yongchen, 2015. "Testing the value of probability forecasts for calibrated combining," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 113-129.
    108. Krüger, Fabian & Pavlova, Lora, 2024. "Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 796-810.
    109. Spencer D. Krane, 2003. "An evaluation of real GDP forecasts: 1996-2001," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 27(Q I), pages 2-21.
    110. Paul Gallimore & Pat McAllister, 2005. "The Production and Consumption of Commercial Real Estate Market Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2005-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    111. Mishra, Sagarika & Dhole, Sandip, 2014. "Least squares learning and the US Treasury bill rate," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 194-204.
    112. Lauren K. Fine & Stephen K. McNees, 1994. "Diversity, uncertainty, and accuracy of inflation forecasts," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 33-44.
    113. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Consensus and uncertainty: Using forecast probabilities of output declines," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 76-86.
    114. Clements, Michael P., 2018. "Are macroeconomic density forecasts informative?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 181-198.
    115. Hamid Baghestani, 2009. "A Comparison of U.S. Housing Starts Forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2525-2530.
    116. Florian Peters & Simas Kucinskas, 2018. "Measuring Biases in Expectation Formation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-058/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    117. Dean Croushore, 2010. "Philadelphia Fed forecasting surveys: their value for research," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 1-11.
    118. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone, 2015. "The effectiveness of nonstandard monetary policy measures: evidence from survey data," Staff Reports 752, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    119. Myles Callan & Eric Ghysels & Norman R. Swanson, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules with Model and Data Uncertainty," CIRANO Working Papers 98s-40, CIRANO.
    120. Laurence Ball & Dean Croushore, 1998. "Expectations and the effects of monetary policy," Working Papers 98-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    121. Marco Brianti & Vito Cormun, 2023. "Expectation-Driven Boom-Bust Cycles," Working Papers 2023-04, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    122. Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2014. "Inflation Uncertainty and Disagreement in Bond Risk Premia," Working Paper Series WP-2014-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    123. Norman R. Swanson & Halbert White, 1995. "A Model Selection Approach to Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks," Macroeconomics 9503004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    124. Baghestani, Hamid, 2011. "Federal Reserve and private forecasts of growth in investment," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(4), pages 290-305, July.
    125. Berlemann, Michael, 2001. "Forecasting inflation via electronic markets: Results from a prototype market," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 06/01, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    126. Carl S Bonham & Richard H Cohen, 2000. "To Aggregate, Pool, or Neither: Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis Using Survey Data," Working Papers 200003, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    127. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    128. João Valle e Azevedo & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Rational vs. Professional Forecasts," Working Papers w201114, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    129. Eva Regnier, 2018. "Probability Forecasts Made at Multiple Lead Times," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 2407-2426, May.
    130. Lee, Dong Jin & Yoon, Jai Hyung, 2016. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in multiple quantiles and the asymmetry of monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 102-114.
    131. Kim Chang-Jin & Kim Yunmi, 2008. "Is the Backward-Looking Component Important in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-20, September.
    132. George G. Pennacchi, 2009. "Comment on "Pricing Personal Account Benefit Guarantees: A Simplified Approach"," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, pages 249-254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    133. John Nkwoma Inekwe, 2020. "Market uncertainty, risk aversion, and macroeconomic expectations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1977-1995, October.
    134. Clements, Michael P., 2021. "Rounding behaviour of professional macro-forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1614-1631.
    135. Clements, Michael P., 2016. "Long-run restrictions and survey forecasts of output, consumption and investment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 614-628.
    136. Kajuth, Florian & Watzka, Sebastian, 2011. "Inflation expectations from index-linked bonds: Correcting for liquidity and inflation risk premia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 225-235, June.
    137. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2003. "Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 67-77.
    138. Sean D. Campbell, 2004. "Macroeconomic volatility, predictability and uncertainty in the Great Moderation: evidence from the survey of professional forecasters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    139. Dong Jin Lee & Jai Hyung Yoon, 2012. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curves in Multiple Quantiles and the Asymmetry of Monetary Policy," Working papers 2012-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    140. Clements, Michael P., 2021. "Do survey joiners and leavers differ from regular participants? The US SPF GDP growth and inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 634-646.
    141. Jean Sepulveda-Umanzor, 2004. "The Relation Between Macroeconomic Uncertainty And The Expected Performance Of the Economy," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 304, Econometric Society.
    142. Kocięcki, Andrzej & Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2012. "A Bayesian method of combining judgmental and model-based density forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1349-1355.
    143. Eric Ghysels & Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "Forecasting professional forecasters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  31. Dean Croushore, 1992. "What are the costs of disinflation?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 3-16.

    Cited by:

    1. Tödter, Karl-Heinz & Ziebarth, Gerhard, 1997. "Price stability versus low inflation in Germany: An analysis of costs and benefits," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1997,03e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Karl-Heinz Todter & Gerhard Ziebarth, 1997. "Price Stability vs. Low Inflation in Germany: An Analysis of Costs and Benefits," NBER Working Papers 6170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777, March.

  32. Dean D. Croushore & Ronald S. Koot & David A. Walker, 1990. "Economic Stability and the Government Deficit," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 390-403, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Riera Prunera, Maria Carmen, 2000. "A Role For Deficit In Economic Growth," ERSA conference papers ersa00p335, European Regional Science Association.

  33. Dean D. Croushore, 1987. "The Neutrality of Optimal Government Financial Policy: Supplying the Intergenerational Free Lunch," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 123-136, Apr-Jun.

    Cited by:

    1. Fred Wallace, 1989. "The Neutrality of Optimal Government Financial Policy: Supplying the Intergenerational Free Lunch: A Comment," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 147-150, Apr-Jun.
    2. Dean D. Croushore, 1989. "What Neutrality Means in Macroeconomics: Reply," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 150-152, Apr-Jun.

Chapters

  1. Croushore, Dean, 2006. "Forecasting with Real-Time Macroeconomic Data," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 17, pages 961-982, Elsevier.

    Cited by:

    1. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 870, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Marcellino Massimiliano, 2020. "Nowcasting Tail Risks to Economic Activity with Many Indicators," Working Papers 20-13R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 22 Sep 2020.
    3. Inske Pirschel & Maik H. Wolters, 2018. "Forecasting with large datasets: compressing information before, during or after the estimation?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 573-596, September.
    4. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Working Papers (Old Series) 1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. Katharina Glass & Ulrich Fritsche, 2015. "Real-time Macroeconomic Data and Uncertainty," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201406, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    6. Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick & Groenen, Patrick J.F., 2011. "Real-time macroeconomic forecasting with leading indicators: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 466-481, April.
    7. Timmermann, Allan & Patton, Andrew, 2007. "Learning in Real Time: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the Term Structure of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 6526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2013. "Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 736-750.
    9. Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 305-340.
    10. Anesti, Nikoleta & Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2018. "Uncertain kingdom: nowcasting GDP and its revisions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90382, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2010. "Learning and heterogeneity in GDP and inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-292, April.
    12. Keijsers, Bart & van Dijk, Dick, 2025. "Does economic uncertainty predict real activity in real time?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 748-762.
    13. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2020. "Nowcasting Growth using Google Trends Data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series Model," Papers 2011.00938, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    14. Timmermann, Allan & Elliott, Graham, 2007. "Economic Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Warne, Anders, 2023. "DSGE model forecasting: rational expectations vs. adaptive learning," Working Paper Series 2768, European Central Bank.
    16. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2019. "Interpreting Big Data in the Macro Economy: A Bayesian Mixed Frequency Estimator," CEERP Working Paper Series 010, Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University.
    17. Arai, Natsuki, 2014. "Using forecast evaluation to improve the accuracy of the Greenbook forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 12-19.
    18. Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in real-time: A density combination approach," Working Paper 2011/11, Norges Bank.
    19. Tuhkuri, Joonas, 2016. "Forecasting Unemployment with Google Searches," ETLA Working Papers 35, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    20. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-time macroeconomic monitoring: real activity, inflation, and interactions," Working Papers 10-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    21. Clements, Michael P. & Beatriz Galvao, Ana, "undated". "Real-time Forecasting of Inflation and Output Growth in the Presence of Data Revisions," Economic Research Papers 270771, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    22. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
    23. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    24. Norman R. Swanson & Andres Fernandez, 2011. "Real-Time Datasets Really Do Make a Difference: Definitional Change, Data Release, and Forecasting," Departmental Working Papers 201113, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    25. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    26. Heij, C. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Groenen, P.J.F., 2009. "Macroeconomic forecasting with real-time data: an empirical comparison," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-27, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    27. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    28. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2009. "First Announcements and Real Economic Activity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 885, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    29. Aastveit, Knut Are & Anundsen, André K. & Herstad, Eyo I., 2019. "Residential investment and recession predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1790-1799.
    30. Francis X. Diebold, 2012. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-035, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    31. Timmermann, Allan & Patton, Andrew, 2011. "Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds," CEPR Discussion Papers 8194, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    33. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Frontiers of real-time data analysis," Working Papers 08-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    34. Tara M. Sinclair, 2012. "Forecasting Data Vintages," Working Papers 2012-001, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    35. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Dick van Dijk & Richard Paap, 2011. "Bayesian Forecasting of Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-093/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    36. Drechsel, Katja & Giesen, Sebastian & Lindner, Axel, 2014. "Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2014, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    37. Emilia Tomczyk, 2013. "End of sample vs. real time data: perspectives for analysis of expectations," Working Papers 68, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    38. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    39. Krüger, Fabian & Clark, Todd E. & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2015. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113077, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    40. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2010. "Have economic models' forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 808-835, October.
    41. Clements Michael P., 2012. "Forecasting U.S. Output Growth with Non-Linear Models in the Presence of Data Uncertainty," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, January.
    42. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil," Staff Working Papers 11-16, Bank of Canada.
    43. Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, "undated". "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data: Forecasting US output growth and inflation," Economic Research Papers 269743, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    44. Givens, Gregory, 2016. "Do data revisions matter for DSGE estimation?," MPRA Paper 70932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    45. Biswas, Rita & Loungani, Prakash & Liang, Zhongwen & Michaelides, Michael, 2024. "Linkages between financial and macroeconomic indicators in emerging markets and developing economies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    46. Michael Funke & Hao Yu & Aaron Mehrota, 2011. "Tracking Chinese CPI inflation in real time," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 21112, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
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