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A case study: the revisions and forecasts of Euro Area quarterly GDP

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  • D'Elia, Enrico

Abstract

In general, rational economic agents trade off the cost of waiting for the statistical agencies disseminate the final results of the relevant surveys before making a decision, on the one hand, and of making use of some model based predictions. Thus, from the viewpoint of agents, predictions and preliminary results from surveys often compete against each other. Comparing the loss attached to predictions, on the one hand, and to possible preliminary estimate from incomplete samples, on the other, provides a broad guidance in deciding if and when statistical agencies should release preliminary and final estimates. In this paper, the case of the dissemination of figures on quarterly GDP in the Euro Area is examined. The main conclusion is that the so called “flash estimates” actually provide valuable information to the users, while intermediate releases, published before three months from the end of the reference quarter can be substituted by model based estimation without any loss of accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • D'Elia, Enrico, 2012. "A case study: the revisions and forecasts of Euro Area quarterly GDP," MPRA Paper 40264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40264
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/40264/1/MPRA_paper_40264.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Domenico Giannone & Jérôme Henry & Magdalena Lalik & Michele Modugno, 2012. "An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1000-1013, November.
    2. Dennis Fixler & Bruce Grimm, 2006. "GDP Estimates: Rationality Tests and Turning Point Performance," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 213-229, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Accuracy; Data Dissemination; Forecast; Nowcast; Preliminary Estimates; Timeliness;

    JEL classification:

    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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