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Forecasting coin demand

Author

Listed:
  • Dean Croushore
  • Tom Stark

Abstract

Shortages of coins in 1999 and 2000 motivated the authors to develop models for forecasting coin demand. A variety of models were developed, tested, and used in realtime forecasting. This paper describes the models that were developed and examines the forecast errors from the models both in quasi-ex-ante forecasting exercises and in realtime use. Tests for forecast efficiency are run on each model. Real-time forecasts are examined. The authors conclude with suggestions for further refinements of the models.

Suggested Citation

  • Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2002. "Forecasting coin demand," Working Papers 02-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:02-15
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    File URL: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/working-papers/2002/wp02-15r.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Louise L. Roseman, 2002. "The golden dollar coin: testimony before the Subcommittee on Treasury and General Government of the Committee on Appropriations, U.S. Senate, May 17, 2002," Speech 10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    3. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    4. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    5. Dean Croushore, 1998. "Evaluating inflation forecasts," Working Papers 98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    6. Louise L. Roseman, 2002. "The golden dollar coin: testimony before the Subcommittee on Treasury and General Government of the Committee on Appropriations, U.S. Senate, May 17, 2002," Speech 12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Levy, Daniel & Young, Andrew T., 2004. ""The Real Thing:" Nominal Price Rigidity of the Nickel Coke, 1886-1959," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 36(4 (Specia), pages 765-799.
    2. Dean Croushore, 2003. "U.S. coins: forecasting change," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q2, pages 6-13.
    3. Rómulo Chumacero & Claudio Pardo & David Valdés, 2007. "A new framework for the elaboration of bill printing and coining programs," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 454, Central Bank of Chile.

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    Keywords

    Coinage;

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