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Forecasting coin demand

Author

Listed:
  • Dean Croushore
  • Tom Stark

Abstract

Shortages of coins in 1999 and 2000 motivated the authors to develop models for forecasting coin demand. A variety of models were developed, tested, and used in realtime forecasting. This paper describes the models that were developed and examines the forecast errors from the models both in quasi-ex-ante forecasting exercises and in realtime use. Tests for forecast efficiency are run on each model. Real-time forecasts are examined. The authors conclude with suggestions for further refinements of the models.

Suggested Citation

  • Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2002. "Forecasting coin demand," Working Papers 02-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised 01 Mar 2003.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:02-15
    as

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    File URL: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2002/wp02-15r.pdf?la=en
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dean Croushore, 1998. "Evaluating inflation forecasts," Working Papers 98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    3. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    4. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Levy & Andrew T. Young, 2004. ""The Real Thing:" Nominal Price Rigidity of the Nickel Coke, 1886-1959," Working Papers 2004-2, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    2. Dean Croushore, 2003. "U.S. coins: forecasting change," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q2, pages 6-13.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coinage;

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