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Expert judgement in the Processes of Commercial Property Market Forecasting

  • Paul Gallimore

    (School of Property & Construction, Nottingham Trent University)

  • Patrick McAllister

    ()

    (Department of Real Estate & Planning, University of Reading Business School)

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    In this paper we investigate the role of judgement in the formation of forecasts in commercial real estate markets. Based on interview surveys with the majority of forecast producers, we find that real estate forecasters are using a range of inputs and data sets to form models to predict an array of variables for a range of locations. The findings suggest that forecasts need to be acceptable to their users (and purchasers) and consequently forecasters generally have incentives to avoid presenting contentious or conspicuous forecasts. Where extreme forecasts are generated by a model, forecasters often engage in ‘self-censorship’ or are ‘censored’ following in-house consultation. It is concluded that the forecasting process is more complex than merely carrying out econometric modelling and that the impact of the influences within this process vary considerably across different organizational contexts.

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    File URL: http://www.reading.ac.uk/LM/LM/fulltxt/1104.pdf
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    Paper provided by Henley Business School, Reading University in its series Real Estate & Planning Working Papers with number rep-wp2004-11.

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    Length: 24 pages
    Date of creation: 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:rdg:repxwp:rep-wp2004-11
    Contact details of provider: Postal: PO Box 218, Whiteknights, Reading, Berks, RG6 6AA
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    Web page: http://www.henley.reading.ac.uk/

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    1. Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15.
    2. William C. Wheaton & Raymond G. Torto, 1988. "Vacancy Rates and the Future of Office Rents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 430-436.
    3. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    4. Sotiris Tsolacos, 1998. "Econometric modelling and forecasting of new retail development," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 265-283, January.
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