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Forecasting Demand for Commercial Real Estate Based on the Economic Fundamentals of U.S. Metro Markets

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Abstract

The long-term demand for commercial real estate depends on the relative attractiveness of each metro market compared to all other metro areas. Economic growth models can generate reliable forecasts of commercial real estate demand, but only for the near term. To analyze and compare metro areas over the long term, forecasts based on economic development factors are needed. To support this claim, propositions and empirical tests are presented that compare the influence of regional location, industry mix, and economic development factors on the long-term employment growth rates and employment instability of U.S. metro areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Emil E. Malizia, 1991. "Forecasting Demand for Commercial Real Estate Based on the Economic Fundamentals of U.S. Metro Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 6(3), pages 251-266.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:6:n:3:1991:p:251-266
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Attaran, Mohsen, 1986. "Industrial Diversity and Economic Performance in U.S. Areas," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 20(2), pages 44-54, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen Malpezzi & James D. Shilling & Yu Yun Jessie Yang, 2001. "The Stock of Private Real Estate Capital in U.S. Metropolitan Areas," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 22(3), pages 243-270.
    2. Jacco Hakfoort & Robert Lie, 1996. "Office Space per Worker: Evidence from Four European Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 11(2), pages 183-196.
    3. Paul Gallimore & Patrick McAllister, 2004. "Expert judgement in the Processes of Commercial Property Market Forecasting," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2004-11, Henley Business School, University of Reading.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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