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A framework for decomposing shocks and measuring volatilities derived from multi-dimensional panel data of survey forecasts

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  • Davies, Antony

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  • Davies, Antony, 2006. "A framework for decomposing shocks and measuring volatilities derived from multi-dimensional panel data of survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 373-393.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:22:y:2006:i:2:p:373-393
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    1. Lovell, Michael C, 1986. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 110-124, March.
    2. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    3. Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1993. "Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 11-94, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. Fred Joutz & Michael P. Clements & Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 121-136.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    7. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
    8. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1991. "Blue Chip Rationality Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(4), pages 692-705, November.
    9. Davies, Anthony & Lahiri, Kajal, 1995. "A new framework for analyzing survey forecasts using three-dimensional panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 205-227, July.
    10. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-735, September.
    11. Dean Croushore, 1997. "The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 15-27.
    12. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2001. "Monetary policy in a dollarized economy where balance sheets matter," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 445-464, December.
    13. Swidler, Steve & Ketcher, David, 1990. "Economic Forecasts, Rationality, and the Processing of New Information over Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 65-76, February.
    14. Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15.
    15. Lloyd B. Thomas, 1999. "Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 125-144, Fall.
    16. Bonham, Carl & Cohen, Richard, 1995. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 284-289, March.
    17. De Bondt, Werner F. M. & Bange, Mary M., 1992. "Inflation Forecast Errors and Time Variation in Term Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 479-496, December.
    18. Patterson, K. D., 2000. "Which vintage of data to use when there are multiple vintages of data?: Cointegration, weak exogeneity and common factors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 115-121, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael K Andersson & Ted Aranki & André Reslow, 2017. "Adjusting for information content when comparing forecast performance," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 784-794, November.
    2. Bedri Kamil Onur Taş, 2016. "Does the Federal Reserve have Private Information about its Future Actions?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(331), pages 498-517, July.
    3. Silvija Vlah Jerić & Mihovil Anđelinović, 2019. "Evaluating Croatian stock index forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1325-1339, April.
    4. Ager, P. & Kappler, M. & Osterloh, S., 2009. "The accuracy and efficiency of the Consensus Forecasts: A further application and extension of the pooled approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 167-181.
    5. Croushore Dean, 2010. "An Evaluation of Inflation Forecasts from Surveys Using Real-Time Data," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, May.
    6. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & João Victor Issler, 2014. "Microfounded Forecasting," Working Papers Series 372, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Rosen Valchev & Antony Davies, 2009. "Transparency, Performance, and Agency Budgets: A Rational Expectations Modeling Approach," Working Papers 2009-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    8. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2008. "Evaluating a three-dimensional panel of point forecasts: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 354-367.
    9. Antony Davies, 2008. "An Exploration of Regression-Based Data Mining Techniques Using Super Computation," Working Papers 2008-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

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