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An Examination of Data Revisions in the Quarterly National Accounts

Author

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  • Bermingham, Colin

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

Abstract

The paper presents a real time database of economic time series for Ireland. The database contains a record of what was considered official data at each point in time. The database is used to describe the properties of data revisions to the growth rates of GDP and its expenditure components in the Quarterly National Accounts. The revisions, although significant in an absolute sense, are small relative to average growth over the sample by international standards. Nonetheless, using the methodology of Mankiw et al (1984), it is found that initial estimates of GDP growth are not rational forecasts of final GDP growth. This means that there is a predictable element to the revisions. A number of rational forecasts of GDP growth are constructed using various forecasting regressions. It is found that forecasts of GDP growth estimated using the initial announcement and a measure of stock prices are more accurate reflections of true GDP growth than the initial announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Bermingham, Colin, 2006. "An Examination of Data Revisions in the Quarterly National Accounts," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:10/rt/06
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    3. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    4. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005. "News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-419, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bob Krebs, 2019. "Revisions to Quarterly National Accounts data in Luxembourg," BCL working papers 136, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    2. Creedon, Conn & O'Brien, Eoin, 2016. "Indicators for Setting the Countercyclical Capital Buffer," Economic Letters 02/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Antonello D'Agostino & Kieran McQuinn & Derry O’Brien, 2012. "Nowcasting Irish GDP," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 21-31.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Y10 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Data: Tables and Charts - - - Data: Tables and Charts

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