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What Have We Learned from a Survey of Japanese Professional Forecasters? Taking Stock of Four Years of ESP Forecast Experience

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  • KOMINE Takao
  • BAN Kanemi
  • KAWAGOE Masaaki
  • YOSHIDA Hiroshi

Abstract

This paper aims to take stock of four years of ESP forecast experience since its launch in 2004. The consensus performs well, compared to individual forecasters, which is confirmed probably for the first time in Japan. It satisfies the average form of rational expectations hypothesis defined in Pesaran and Weale (2006) at least in short forecast horizon. Remaining promising research agenda includes real-time data analysis of updating forecasters, subjective distribution, non-specialists' forecasts, changes in forecasts due to the Lehman shock.

Suggested Citation

  • KOMINE Takao & BAN Kanemi & KAWAGOE Masaaki & YOSHIDA Hiroshi, 2009. "What Have We Learned from a Survey of Japanese Professional Forecasters? Taking Stock of Four Years of ESP Forecast Experience," ESRI Discussion paper series 214, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:esj:esridp:214
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. IIDUKA Nobuo & KAWAGOE Masaaki, 2009. "How Different Are Non-specialists' Forecasts from Specialist'?(in Japanese)," ESRI Discussion paper series 227, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Bonham, Carl S & Cohen, Richard H, 2001. "To Aggregate, Pool, or Neither: Testing the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis Using Survey Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 278-291, July.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    5. Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15.
    6. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1985. "Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(4), pages 293-311, October.
    7. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005. "News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-419, June.
    8. G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    9. Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June.
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