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Real-time macro monitoring and fiscal policy

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  • Ley, Eduardo
  • Misch, Florian

Abstract

This paper considers the effects of inaccurate real-time output data on fiscal policy, both with respect to budgetary planning and fiscal surveillance. As newer and better information becomes available, output data available in real time get revised and are likely to conflict with final figures that are only released some years later. By contrast, fiscal policy is inevitably based on real-time figures. The paper develops a simple but comprehensive modeling framework to formalize the linkages between output data revisions and fiscal policy and combines it with a newly compiled dataset from the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook, comprising final and real-time output data for 175 countries, over a period of 17 years. Based on a simulation exercise, it finds that output data revisions alone may significantly undermine the reliability of real-time estimates of the overall and structural fiscal balances, and that output data revisions may result in unplanned and substantial debt accumulation. The paper also shows that there are significant differences across country income groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Ley, Eduardo & Misch, Florian, 2014. "Real-time macro monitoring and fiscal policy," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-122, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:14122
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    Cited by:

    1. George Kopits, 2014. "Ireland’s Fiscal Framework: Options for the Future," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(1), pages 135-158.
    2. Belke, Ansgar, 2017. "Central bank communication: Managing expectations through the monetary dialogue," Ruhr Economic Papers 692, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Ansgar Belke, 2014. "Monetary dialogue 2009–2014: Looking backward, looking forward," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 49(4), pages 204-211, July.
    4. repec:zbw:rwirep:0477 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Grigoli, Francesco & Herman, Alexander & Swiston, Andrew & Di Bella, Gabriel, 2015. "Output gap uncertainty and real-time monetary policy," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 329-358.
    6. Paloviita, Maritta & Ikonen, Pasi, 2016. "How to explain errors in budget balance forecasts in euro area countries? Empirical evidence based on real-time data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2016, Bank of Finland.
    7. Eugen Tereanu & Ms. Anita Tuladhar & Mr. Alejandro Simone, 2014. "Structural Balance Targeting and Output Gap Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2014/107, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Amador-Torres, J. Sebastián, 2017. "Finance-neutral potential output: An evaluation in an emerging market monetary policy context," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 389-407.
    9. Lise Pichette & Marie-Noëlle Robitaille & Mohanad Salameh & Pierre St-Amant, 2018. "Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation," Staff Working Papers 18-10, Bank of Canada.
    10. Mr. Alvar Kangur & Koralai Kirabaeva & Jean-Marc Natal & Simon Voigts, 2019. "How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?," IMF Working Papers 2019/200, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Buncic, Daniel & Müller, Oliver, 2017. "Measuring the output gap in Switzerland with linear opinion pools," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 153-171.
    12. Pichette, Lise & Robitaille, Marie-Noëlle & Salameh, Mohanad & St-Amant, Pierre, 2019. "Dismiss the output gaps? To use with caution given their limitations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 199-215.
    13. Paloviita, Maritta & Ikonen, Pasi, 2016. "How to explain errors in budget balance forecasts in euro area countries? Empirical evidence based on real-time data," Research Discussion Papers 17/2016, Bank of Finland.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Maritta Paloviita & Pasi Ikonen, 2018. "Real-time uncertainty in budget planning: evidence from euro area countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 281-300, October.
    16. Ms. Burcu Hacibedel & Pierre Mandon & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Nathalie Pouokam, 2019. "Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 2019/020, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Maritta Paloviita & Pasi Ikonen, 2018. "Real-time uncertainty in budget planning: evidence from euro area countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 281-300, October.
    18. Ansgar Belke, 2014. "Monetary Dialogue 2009-2014 – Looking Backward, Looking Forward," Ruhr Economic Papers 0477, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real-time Output Data; Fiscal Policy; Data Revisions; Public Debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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