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Fiscal Risks: Sources, Disclosure, and Management

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Lusine Lusinyan
  • Aliona Cebotari
  • Ricardo Velloso
  • Mr. Jeffrey M. Davis
  • Mr. Amine Mati
  • Murray Petrie
  • Mr. Paolo Mauro

Abstract

This paper analyzes the main sources of fiscal risks, including from unexpected changes in macroeconomic variables and banking crises, which can have major consequences for countries fiscal and public debt sustainability. It builds on an overview of existing practices in a wide range of countries to provide practical suggestions on how to promote disclosure of such risks and on risk mitigation and management. The paper was written in response to requests from IMF member countries for advice on this subject. The paper also includes an example of a possible statement of fiscal risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Lusine Lusinyan & Aliona Cebotari & Ricardo Velloso & Mr. Jeffrey M. Davis & Mr. Amine Mati & Murray Petrie & Mr. Paolo Mauro, 2009. "Fiscal Risks: Sources, Disclosure, and Management," IMF Departmental Papers / Policy Papers 2009/001, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfdps:2009/001
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mihaela Tofan & Mihaela Onofrei & Anca-Florentina Vatamanu, 2020. "Fiscal Responsibility Legal Framework—New Paradigm for Fiscal Discipline in the EU," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Shiv Shankar & Pushpa Trivedi, 2023. "Assessing India’s fiscal sustainability considering debt–deficit and financing dynamics," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 41-70, June.
    3. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2016. "Real-Time Data And Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 302-326, April.
    4. Cepparulo, Alessandra & Eusepi, Giuseppe & Giuriato, Luisa, 2020. "Public finances and Public Private Partnerships in the European Union," MPRA Paper 103918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Elva Bova & Marta Ruiz-Arranz & Frederik Giancarlo Toscani & Hatice Elif Ture, 2019. "The impact of contingent liability realizations on public finances," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(2), pages 381-417, April.
    6. Adriana Elena PORUMBOIU & Petre BREZEANU, 2020. "The Lawsuits Romania Loses at European Court of Human Rights - Judicial Vulnerability, Fiscal Consequences," Finante - provocarile viitorului (Finance - Challenges of the Future), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(22), pages 51-57, November.
    7. Lledó, Victor & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2013. "Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 79-91.
    8. Jakob Korbinian Eberl, 2016. "The Collateral Framework of the Eurosystem and Its Fiscal Implications," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 69.
    9. Antoine Levy & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Alejandro M. Werner, 2020. "The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 2020/220, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Ms. Valerie Cerra & Mr. Alfredo Cuevas & Carlos Góes & Ms. Izabela Karpowicz & Mr. Troy D Matheson & Issouf Samaké & Svetlana Vtyurina, 2016. "Highways to Heaven: Infrastructure Determinants and Trends in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2016/185, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Leandro Medina, 2018. "Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 35(1), pages 196-222, March.
    12. Herrera Dappe,Matias & Musacchio,Aldo & Pan,Carolina & Semikolenova,Yadviga Viktorivna & Turkgulu,Burak & Barboza,Jonathan, 2022. "Smoke and Mirrors : Infrastructure State-Owned Enterprises and Fiscal Risks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9970, The World Bank.
    13. Sun, Lixin, 2015. "China’s Debt: Structure, Determinants and Sustainability," MPRA Paper 68548, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2015.
    14. Timothy C. Irwin, 2016. "Getting the Dog to Bark: Disclosing Fiscal Risks from the Financial Sector," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 1-17, June.
    15. Ley, Eduardo & Misch, Florian, 2013. "Real-time macro monitoring and fiscal policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6303, The World Bank.
    16. Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba & Mr. Robert C York & Neree C.G.M. Noumon, 2016. "Can Statistical Capacity Building Help Reduce Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2016/209, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Ludovit Odor, 2014. "Fiscal Risk Assessment at the CBR: A Conceptual Framework," Discussion Papers Discussion Paper No. 1/20, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    18. Nada Azmy ElBerry & Stijn Goeminne, 2021. "Fiscal transparency, fiscal forecasting and budget credibility in developing countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 144-161, January.

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