IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Risk Assessment at the CBR: A Conceptual Framework


  • Ludovit Odor

    (Council for Budget Responsibility)


To identify fiscal risk, the CBR uses a pragmatic approach by employing a set of models and indicators, quantitative and qualitative assessments organized in a coherent framework. The inter-temporal net worth serves as an organizing principle. It has the advantage over other frameworks that: i) is directly comparable to budget figures (both ex-ante and ex-post), ii) easier to communicate to policy makers, iii) do not rely on ad-hoc categories but is directly linked to the inter-temporal budget constraint, iv) is embedded in the constitutional Act on Fiscal Responsibility and v)promotes easier detection of fiscal gimmicky. This paper also briefly summarizes the toolkit of the CBR and proposes three „communication devices“, which can in our view help to increase the understanding of fiscal risks among policymakers and the general public.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludovit Odor, 2014. "Fiscal Risk Assessment at the CBR: A Conceptual Framework," Discussion Papers Discussion Paper No. 1/20, Council for Budget Responsibility.
  • Handle: RePEc:cbe:dpaper:201401

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Andrea Schaechter & C. Emre Alper & Elif Arbatli & Carlos Caceres & Giovanni Callegari & Marc Gerard & Jiri Jonas & Tidiane Kinda & Anna Shabunina & Anke Weber, 2014. "A toolkit to assess fiscal vulnerabilities and risks in advanced economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 650-660, February.
    2. Lars Calmfors & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2011. "What should fiscal councils do? [Fiscal policy when monetary policy is tied to the mast]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(68), pages 649-695.
    3. Giovanni Callegari & Jiri Jonas & Miss Anke Weber & Carlos Caceres & Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Ms. Elif C Arbatli Saxegaard & Mr. Emre Alper & Ms. Anna Shabunina & Mr. Marc Gerard & Ms. Andrea Schaechter, 2012. "A toolkit for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2012/011, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Michal Horvath & Ludivit Odor, 2009. "Making Fiscal Commitments Credible," Working and Discussion Papers DP 2/2009, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    5. Hana Polackova Brixi & Allen Schick, 2002. "Government at Risk : Contingent Liabilities and Fiscal Risk," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15233, December.
    6. Ms. Lusine Lusinyan & Mr. Amine Mati & Aliona Cebotari & Ricardo Velloso & Murray Petrie & Mr. Jeffrey M. Davis & Mr. Paolo Mauro, 2009. "Fiscal Risks: Sources, Disclosure, and Management," IMF Departmental Papers / Policy Papers 2009/001, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Katia Berti & Matteo Salto & Matthieu Lequien, 2012. "An early-detection index of fiscal stress for EU countries," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 475, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Iva Petrova & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci & Mr. James McHugh, 2011. "Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress: A Proposed Set of Indicators," IMF Working Papers 2011/094, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper, 2013. "Analyzing Fiscal Sustainability," Staff Working Papers 13-27, Bank of Canada.
    10. Vincent Koen & Paul van den Noord, 2005. "Fiscal Gimmickry in Europe: One-Off Measures and Creative Accounting," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 417, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Zuzana Mucka, 2015. "Is the Maastricht debt limit safe enough for Slovakia?," Working Papers Working Paper No. 2/2015, Council for Budget Responsibility.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andreea Stoian & Laura Obreja Brașoveanu & Iulian Viorel Brașoveanu & Bogdan Dumitrescu, 2018. "A Framework to Assess Fiscal Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence for European Union Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsopanakis, Andreas, 2014. "Exploring the effects of financial and fiscal vulnerabilities on G7 economies: Evidence from SVAR analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 343-367.
    3. Rudolf Alvise Lennkh & Edmund Moshammer & Vilém Valenta, 2017. "A Comprehensive Scorecard for Assessing Sovereign Vulnerabilities," Working Papers 23, European Stability Mechanism.
    4. Hans Pitlik & Michael Klien & Stefan Schiman, 2017. "Stabilitätskonforme Berücksichtigung nachhaltiger öffentlicher Investitionen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 60595.
    5. John Muellbauer, 2013. "Conditional eurobonds and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 610-645, AUTUMN.
    6. Herrera Dappe,Matias & Musacchio,Aldo & Pan,Carolina & Semikolenova,Yadviga Viktorivna & Turkgulu,Burak & Barboza,Jonathan, 2022. "Smoke and Mirrors : Infrastructure State-Owned Enterprises and Fiscal Risks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9970, The World Bank.
    7. Timothy C. Irwin, 2015. "Defining The Government'S Debt And Deficit," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 711-732, September.
    8. Debra Bloch & Falilou Fall, 2016. "Government Debt Indicators:Understanding the Data," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(01), pages 1-28, February.
    9. Turrini, Alessandro & Zeugner, Stefan, 2019. "Benchmarks for net international investment positions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 149-164.
    10. Markus Reischmann, 2016. "Empirische Studien zu Staatsverschuldung und fiskalischen Transferzahlungen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 63.
    11. Levy, Antoine & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Werner, Alejandro, 2020. "The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 15450, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Dufrénot, Gilles & Gente, Karine & Monsia, Frédia, 2016. "Macroeconomic imbalances, financial stress and fiscal vulnerability in the euro area before the debt crises: A market view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 123-146.
    13. Leandro Medina, 2018. "Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 35(1), pages 196-222, March.
    14. Ata Özkaya, 2014. "Hidden Overhang of Domestic Debt and Its Role in the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome: An Empirical Contingent Liabilities Model," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 73-94.
    15. Stoian, Andreea & Obreja Brasoveanu, Laura & Dumitrescu, Bogdan & Brasoveanu, Iulian, 2015. "Empirical study on the determinants of fiscal vulnerability: evidence for the European Union," MPRA Paper 65063, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Stoian, Andreea & Obreja Brasoveanu, Laura & Dumitrescu, Bogdan & Brasoveanu, Iulian, 2015. "A new framework for detecting the short term fiscal vulnerability for the European Union countries," MPRA Paper 63537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Jakob Korbinian Eberl, 2016. "The Collateral Framework of the Eurosystem and Its Fiscal Implications," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 69.
    18. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Rossana Merola, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 1. How Much is Needed and How to Reduce Debt to a Prudent Level?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 932, OECD Publishing.
    19. Tagkalakis, Athanasios O., 2014. "Financial stability indicators and public debt developments," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 158-179.
    20. Tóth G., Csaba, 2017. "A nemzeti költségvetési szabályok elterjedése és hatása Európában [The spread of national fiscal rules and their effect in Europe]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1119-1147.

    More about this item


    fiscal risk; contingent liabilities; fiscal limit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H1 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbe:dpaper:201401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.