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A toolkit to assess fiscal vulnerabilities and risks in advanced economies

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Schaechter
  • C. Emre Alper
  • Elif Arbatli
  • Carlos Caceres
  • Giovanni Callegari
  • Marc Gerard
  • Jiri Jonas
  • Tidiane Kinda
  • Anna Shabunina
  • Anke Weber

Abstract

This article presents a range of tools and indicators for analysing fiscal vulnerabilities and risks for advanced economies. The analysis covers key short-, medium- and long-term dimensions. Short-term pressures are captured by assessing (i) gross funding needs, (ii) market perceptions of default risk and (iii) stress dependence among sovereigns. Medium- and long-term pressures are summarized by (iv) medium- and long-term budgetary adjustment needs, (v) susceptibility of debt projections to growth and interest rate shocks and (vi) stochastic risks to medium-term debt dynamics. Aiming to cover a wide range of advanced economies and minimize data lags, has also influenced the selection of empirical methods. Due to these features, they can, for example, help inform the joint IMF--FSB Early Warning Exercise (EWE) on the fiscal dimensions of economic risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Schaechter & C. Emre Alper & Elif Arbatli & Carlos Caceres & Giovanni Callegari & Marc Gerard & Jiri Jonas & Tidiane Kinda & Anna Shabunina & Anke Weber, 2014. "A toolkit to assess fiscal vulnerabilities and risks in advanced economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 650-660, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:46:y:2014:i:6:p:650-660
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2013.861589
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Miguel Segoviano, 2006. "Consistent Information Multivariate Density Optimizing Methodology," FMG Discussion Papers dp557, Financial Markets Group.
    2. Manmohan S. Kumar & Emanuele Baldacci, 2010. "Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 10/184, International Monetary Fund.
    3. C. Emre Alper & Lorenzo Forni & Marc Gerard, 2013. "Pricing of Sovereign Credit Risk: Evidence from Advanced Economies during the Financial Crisis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 161-188, June.
    4. Segoviano, Miguel A., 2006. "Consistent information multivariate density optimizing methodology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24511, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Elif C Arbatli Saxegaard & Emre Alper & Jiri Jonas & Anke Weber & Marc Gerard & Tidiane Kinda & Giovanni Callegari & Anna Shabunina & Andrea Schaechter & Carlos Caceres, 2012. "A toolkit for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 12/11, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. John Muellbauer, 2013. "Conditional eurobonds and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 610-645, AUTUMN.
    2. Andreea Stoian & Laura Obreja Brașoveanu & Iulian Viorel Brașoveanu & Bogdan Dumitrescu, 2018. "A Framework to Assess Fiscal Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence for European Union Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, July.
    3. Rudolf Alvise Lennkh & Edmund Moshammer & Vilém Valenta, 2017. "A Comprehensive Scorecard for Assessing Sovereign Vulnerabilities," Working Papers 23, European Stability Mechanism.
    4. Ludovit Odor, 2014. "Fiscal Risk Assessment at the CBR: A Conceptual Framework," Discussion Papers Discussion Paper No. 1/20, Council for Budget Responsibility.

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