IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2015-014.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Francesco Grigoli
  • Alexander Herman
  • Mr. Andrew J Swiston
  • Gabriel Di Bella

Abstract

Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable ex ante based on characteristics like output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from typical monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to output gap revisions. These revisions explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Alexander Herman & Mr. Andrew J Swiston & Gabriel Di Bella, 2015. "Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2015/014, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=42621
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    2. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(s1), pages 1-35.
    3. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    4. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    5. Allan Timmermann, 2007. "An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(1), pages 1-33, May.
    6. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    7. Giang Ho & Paolo Mauro, 2016. "Growth—Now and Forever?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 526-547, August.
    8. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1406-1435, July.
    9. Axel Dreher & Silvia Marchesi & James Vreeland, 2008. "The political economy of IMF forecasts," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 145-171, October.
    10. repec:bla:manchs:v:67:y:1999:i:0:p:1-35 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ley, Eduardo & Misch, Florian, 2013. "Real-time macro monitoring and fiscal policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6303, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Calista Cheung & Luke Frymire & Lise Pichette, 2020. "Can the Business Outlook Survey Help Improve Estimates of the Canadian Output Gap?," Discussion Papers 2020-14, Bank of Canada.
    2. Johannes Thema & Felix Suerkemper & Johan Couder & Nora Mzavanadze & Souran Chatterjee & Jens Teubler & Stefan Thomas & Diana Ürge-Vorsatz & Martin Bo Hansen & Stefan Bouzarovski & Jana Rasch & Sabine, 2019. "The Multiple Benefits of the 2030 EU Energy Efficiency Potential," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-19, July.
    3. Debrun, Xavier & Jonung, Lars, 2019. "Under threat: Rules-based fiscal policy and how to preserve it," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 142-157.
    4. Aqib Aslam & Samya Beidas-Strom & Mr. Rudolfs Bems & Oya Celasun & Zsoka Koczan, 2016. "Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom," IMF Working Papers 2016/027, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Hillary Chijindu Ezeaku & Imo Godwin Ibe & Uche Boniface Ugwuanyi & N. J. Modebe & Emmanuel Kalu Agbaeze, 2018. "Monetary Policy Transmission and Industrial Sector Growth: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 8(2), pages 21582440187, April.
    6. Amador-Torres, J. Sebastián, 2017. "Finance-neutral potential output: An evaluation in an emerging market monetary policy context," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 389-407.
    7. Enrique Alberola & Rocio Gondo & Marco Lombardi & Diego Urbina, 2017. "Output gaps and stabilisation policies in Latin America: The effect of commodity and capital flow cycles," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 35(82), pages 40-52, April.
    8. Lise Pichette & Marie-Noëlle Robitaille & Mohanad Salameh & Pierre St-Amant, 2018. "Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation," Staff Working Papers 18-10, Bank of Canada.
    9. repec:bdr:ensayo:v:35:y:2017:i:82:p:71-85 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Alain MALATA & Christian PINSHI, 2020. "Fading The Effects Of Coronavirus With Monetary Policy," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 105-110.
    11. Cronin, David & McInerney, Niall, 2023. "Official fiscal forecasts in EU member states under the European Semester and Fiscal Compact – An empirical assessment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Mr. Alvar Kangur & Koralai Kirabaeva & Jean-Marc Natal & Simon Voigts, 2019. "How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?," IMF Working Papers 2019/200, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Igoni Pedro & Ganiyat Adejoke Adesina-Uthman, 2022. "Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on the Output Gap in Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(9), pages 1-38, September.
    14. Buncic, Daniel & Müller, Oliver, 2017. "Measuring the output gap in Switzerland with linear opinion pools," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 153-171.
    15. PINSHI, Christian P. & MALATA, Alain, 2020. "Canal d’incertitude de la COVID-19 : Quelles stratégies et tactiques pour la politique monétaire ? [COVID-19 Uncertainty Channel: What Strategies and Tactics for Monetary Policy?]," MPRA Paper 109313, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Pichette, Lise & Robitaille, Marie-Noëlle & Salameh, Mohanad & St-Amant, Pierre, 2019. "Dismiss the output gaps? To use with caution given their limitations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 199-215.
    17. Ms. Burcu Hacibedel & Pierre Mandon & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Nathalie Pouokam, 2019. "Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 2019/020, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Paul G. Egan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2016. "Examining Monetary Policy Transmission in the People's Republic of China–Structural Change Models with a Monetary Policy Index," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 74-110, March.
    19. Giulia Rivolta, 2018. "Potential ECB reaction functions with time-varying parameters: an assessment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1425-1473, December.
    20. Sarah Fischer & Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski & Philipp Wegmüller, 2024. "Assessing the Potential Output for Switzerland: Determinants, Trends and Drivers," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 20(2), pages 297-338, July.
    21. Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Mr. Luis Ignacio Jácome & Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Alejandro M. Werner, 2016. "Central Banking in Latin America: The Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 2016/197, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Taylor, John B. & Williams, John C., 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 15, pages 829-859, Elsevier.
    2. de Carvalho, Miguel & Rua, António, 2017. "Real-time nowcasting the US output gap: Singular spectrum analysis at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 185-198.
    3. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
    4. Carlo Rosa, 2009. "Forecasting the Direction of Policy Rate Changes: The Importance of ECB Words," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 38(1‐2), pages 39-66, February.
    5. Buncic, Daniel & Müller, Oliver, 2017. "Measuring the output gap in Switzerland with linear opinion pools," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 153-171.
    6. Andreas Billmeier, 2009. "Ghostbusting: which output gap really matters?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 391-419, December.
    7. Gáti, Laura, 2023. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations—An endogenous gain learning model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 37-47.
    8. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:573:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
    10. Paloviita, Maritta & Ikonen, Pasi, 2016. "How to explain errors in budget balance forecasts in euro area countries? Empirical evidence based on real-time data," Research Discussion Papers 17/2016, Bank of Finland.
    11. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
    12. Jens Richard Clausen & Carsten-Patrick Meier, 2005. "Did the Bundesbank Follow a Taylor Rule? An Analysis Based on Real-Time Data," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 141(II), pages 213-246, June.
    13. Amador-Torres, J. Sebastián, 2017. "Finance-neutral potential output: An evaluation in an emerging market monetary policy context," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 389-407.
    14. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Lucyna Gornicka, 2020. "Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time?," IMF Working Papers 2020/024, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Sarah Fischer & Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski & Philipp Wegmüller, 2024. "Assessing the Potential Output for Switzerland: Determinants, Trends and Drivers," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 20(2), pages 297-338, July.
    16. Ince, Onur & Papell, David H., 2013. "The (un)reliability of real-time output gap estimates with revised data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 713-721.
    17. Florian Eckert & Nina Mühlebach, 2023. "Global and local components of output gaps," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2301-2331, November.
    18. Paloviita, Maritta & Ikonen, Pasi, 2016. "How to explain errors in budget balance forecasts in euro area countries? Empirical evidence based on real-time data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2016, Bank of Finland.
    19. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    20. Thomas Lubik & Christian Matthes & Elmar Mertens, 2023. "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 37-57, July.
    21. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Emi Mise & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Real-Time Representations of the Output Gap," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 792-804, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; output gap revision; output gap estimate; Output gap; monetary policy; policy rule; data revisions; real-time; uncertainty; Brazil; Chile; Colombia; Mexico; Peru; inflation target; business cycle; A. output gap definition; output gap uncertainty; output gap term; Abs. output gap; output gap data; Potential output; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Fiscal rules; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.