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Understanding Monetary Policy and its Effects: Evidence from Canadian Firms Using the Business Outlook Survey

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  • Matthieu Verstraete
  • Lena Suchanek

Abstract

Using real time data, we show that the monetary policy rule in Canada is better described by a Taylor rule augmented with business sentiment which is captured in survey data. Stronger survey results are correlated with a significantly higher policy rate over the period of study (2001–18). Taylor rules including a measure of business sentiment have significantly better predictive accuracy. Using these modified Taylor rules in vector autoregressions and data from the Bank of Canada’s quarterly Business Outlook Survey, we study the impact of monetary policy on firms’ expectations of sales and prices, financing conditions and investment decisions. Given our short sample, we focus on estimates of firms’ responses to monetary shocks obtained by local projections (Jordà 2005). A 100-basis-point shock in the Bank’s target rate leads firms to expect significantly lower sales and slower output price growth, report tighter credit conditions and lower investment intentions. Results are robust to using Champagne and Sekkel’s (2018) new monetary policy measure.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthieu Verstraete & Lena Suchanek, 2018. "Understanding Monetary Policy and its Effects: Evidence from Canadian Firms Using the Business Outlook Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 7221, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7221
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
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    3. Champagne, Julien & Sekkel, Rodrigo, 2018. "Changes in monetary regimes and the identification of monetary policy shocks: Narrative evidence from Canada," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 72-87.
    4. José Dorich & Michael K. Johnston & Rhys R. Mendes & Stephen Murchison & Yang Zhang, 2013. "ToTEM II: An Updated Version of the Bank of Canada’s Quarterly Projection Model," Technical Reports 100, Bank of Canada.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    firm dynamics; transmission of monetary policy; interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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