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Testing for common autocorrelation in data‐rich environments

Author

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  • Gianluca Cubadda
  • Alain Hecq

Abstract

This paper proposes a strategy to detect the presence of common serial cor- relation in large‐dimensional systems. We show that partial least squares can be used to consistently recover the common autocorrelation space. Moreover, a Monte Carlo study reveals that univariate autocorrelation tests on the factors obtained by partial least squares outperform traditional tests based on canonical correlation analysis. Some empirical applications are presented to illustrate concepts and methods. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2011. "Testing for common autocorrelation in data‐rich environments," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 325-335, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:30:y:2011:i:3:p:325-335
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1186
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    Cited by:

    1. Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2021. "Reduced Rank Regression Models in Economics and Finance," CEIS Research Paper 525, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 Nov 2021.
    2. Götz, Thomas B. & Hecq, Alain & Smeekes, Stephan, 2016. "Testing for Granger causality in large mixed-frequency VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 418-432.
    3. Marco Centoni & Gianluca Cubadda, 2015. "Common Feature Analysis of Economic Time Series: An Overview and Recent Developments," CEIS Research Paper 355, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 05 Oct 2015.
    4. Cubadda, Gianluca & Guardabascio, Barbara & Hecq, Alain, 2017. "A vector heterogeneous autoregressive index model for realized volatility measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 337-344.
    5. Francesco Giancaterini & Alain Hecq & Joann Jasiak & Aryan Manafi Neyazi, 2025. "Bubble Detection with Application to Green Bubbles: A Noncausal Approach," Papers 2505.14911, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    6. Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2022. "Dimension Reduction for High‐Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1123-1152, October.
    7. Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq & Sean Telg, 2019. "Detecting Co‐Movements in Non‐Causal Time Series," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(3), pages 697-715, June.
    8. Hecq, A.W. & Laurent, S.F.J.A. & Palm, F.C., 2011. "On the univariate representation of multivariate volatility models with common factors," Research Memorandum 011, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    9. Bernardini, Emmanuela & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2015. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural analysis through regularized reduced-rank regression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 682-691.
    10. Cubadda, Gianluca & Guardabascio, Barbara & Hecq, Alain, 2013. "A general to specific approach for constructing composite business cycle indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 367-374.
    11. Francesco Giancaterini & Alain Hecq & Joann Jasiak & Aryan Manafi Neyazi, 2025. "Regularized Generalized Covariance (RGCov) Estimator," Papers 2504.18678, arXiv.org.
    12. Hecq Alain & Laurent Sébastien & Palm Franz C., 2016. "On the Univariate Representation of BEKK Models with Common Factors," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 91-113, July.
    13. Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2020. "Dimension Reduction for High Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models," Papers 2009.03361, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    14. Marco Centoni & Gianluca Cubadda, 2011. "Modelling comovements of economic time series: a selective survey," Statistica, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna, vol. 71(2), pages 267-294.
    15. Cubadda, Gianluca & Guardabascio, Barbara, 2012. "A medium-N approach to macroeconomic forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1099-1105.
    16. Cubadda, Gianluca & Guardabascio, Barbara, 2019. "Representation, estimation and forecasting of the multivariate index-augmented autoregressive model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 67-79.
    17. Gianluca Cubadda, 2025. "VAR Models with an Index Structure: A Survey with New Results," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-17, October.
    18. Gianluca Cubadda & Francesco Giancaterini & Alain Hecq & Joann Jasiak, 2023. "Optimization of the Generalized Covariance Estimator in Noncausal Processes," Papers 2306.14653, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    19. Gianluca Cubadda & Marco Mazzali, 2024. "The vector error correction index model: representation, estimation and identification," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 27(1), pages 126-150.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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