A general to specific approach for constructing composite business cycle indicators
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.04.007
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.
Other versions of this item:
- Gianluca Cubadda & Barbara Guardabascio & Alain Hecq, 2012. "A General to Specific Approach for Constructing Composite Business Cycle Indicators," CEIS Research Paper 224, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 27 Feb 2012.
References listed on IDEAS
- Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti & Riccardo Cristadoro & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "The construction of coincident and leading indicators for the euro area business cycler of the euro area business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 434, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Alain Hecq, 2005. "Should we really care about building business cycle coincident indexes!," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 141-144.
- Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008.
"Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research,"
Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
- Haan, Jakob de & Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard, 2005. "Will business cycles in the Euro Area converge : a critical survey of empirical research," CCSO Working Papers 200508, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
- Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-360, Oct.-Dec..
- Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2007.
"Common shocks, common dynamics, and the international business cycle,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 149-166, January.
- Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2003. "Common Shocks, Common Dynamics, and the International Business Cycle," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp03007, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
- Marco Centoni & Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2008. "Common Shocks, Common Dynamics, and the International Business Cycle," CEIS Research Paper 106, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 07 Jul 2008.
- Gianluca Cubadda, 2007.
"A Reduced Rank Regression Approach to Coincident and Leading Indexes Building,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 271-292, April.
- Cubadda, Gianluca, 2004. "A Reduced Rank Regression Approach to Coincident and Leading Indexes Building," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp04022, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
- Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2006.
"The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 281-303, May.
- Issler, J.V. & Vahid, F., 2001. "The Missing Link: Using the NBER Recession Indicator to Construct Coincident and Leading Indices of Economic Activity," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/01, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2003. "The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 492, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
- Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2002. "The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 450, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
- Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2002. "The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 445, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
- Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2011.
"Testing for common autocorrelation in data‐rich environments,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 325-335, April.
- Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2009. "Testing for Common Autocorrelation in Data Rich Environments," CEIS Research Paper 153, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 04 Dec 2009.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002.
"Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
- Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2001. "On non-contemporaneous short-run co-movements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 389-397, December.
- Forni, Mario, et al, 2001.
"Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area,"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages 62-85, May.
- Lucrezia Reichlin & Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi, 2001. "Coincident and leading indicators for the Euro area," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10137, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Cubadda, Gianluca, 2007.
"A unifying framework for analysing common cyclical features in cointegrated time series,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 896-906, October.
- Gianluca Cubadda, 2007. "A Unifying Framework for Analysing Common Cyclical Features in Cointegrated Time Series," CEIS Research Paper 102, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
- Cubadda, Gianluca & Guardabascio, Barbara, 2012.
"A medium-N approach to macroeconomic forecasting,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1099-1105.
- Gianluca Cubadda & Barbara Guardabascio, 2010. "A Medium-N Approach to Macroeconomic Forecasting," CEIS Research Paper 176, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 09 Dec 2010.
- Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Hallin, Marc & Forni, Mario & Altissimo, Filippo & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Veronese, Giovanni & Bassanetti, Antonio, 2001.
"EuroCOIN: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mario Forno & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti, 2003. "Eurocoin: A Real Time Coincident Indicator Of The Euro Area Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 242, Society for Computational Economics.
- Carlos Santos & David Hendry & Soren Johansen, 2008.
"Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression,"
Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 317-335, April.
- David Hendry & Søren Johansen & Carlos Santos, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 337-339, April.
- Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974.
"Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May.
- ZELLNER, Arnold & PALM, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," LIDAM Reprints CORE 173, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:47:n:2:a:1 is not listed on IDEAS
- Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993.
"Testing for Common Features,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-380, October.
- Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990. "Testing For Common Features," NBER Technical Working Papers 0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2006.
"The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 281-303, May.
- Issler, J.V. & Vahid, F., 2001. "The Missing Link: Using the NBER Recession Indicator to Construct Coincident and Leading Indices of Economic Activity," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/01, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "The missing link: using the NBER recessions indicator to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 429, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989.
"New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators,"
NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
- Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Mihnea Constantinescu, 2023. "Sparse Warcasting," Working Papers 01/2023, National Bank of Ukraine.
- Agne Reklaite, 2015. "Globalisation Effect Measure Via Hierarchical Dynamic Factor Modelling," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 10(3), pages 139-149, September.
- Marczak, Martyna & Gómez, Víctor, 2015.
"Cyclicality of real wages in the USA and Germany: New insights from wavelet analysis,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 40-52.
- Marczak, Martyna & Gómez, Víctor, 2012. "Cyclicality of real wages in the USA and Germany: New insights from wavelet analysis," FZID Discussion Papers 50-2012, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
- Cubadda, Gianluca & Guardabascio, Barbara, 2019.
"Representation, estimation and forecasting of the multivariate index-augmented autoregressive model,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 67-79.
- Gianluca Cubadda & Barbara Guardabascio, 2017. "Representation, Estimation and Forecasting of the Multivariate Index-Augmented Autoregressive Model," CEIS Research Paper 397, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 13 Jul 2018.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C., 2009.
"Studying co-movements in large multivariate data prior to multivariate modelling,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 25-35, January.
- Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq & Franz C. Palm, 2008. "Studying Co-Movements in Large Multivariate Data Prior to Multivariate Modelling," CEIS Research Paper 125, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 14 Jul 2008.
- Marco Centoni & Gianluca Cubadda, 2011.
"Modelling comovements of economic time series: a selective survey,"
Statistica, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna, vol. 71(2), pages 267-294.
- Marco Centoni & Gianluca Cubadda, 2011. "Modelling Comovements of Economic Time Series: A Selective Survey," CEIS Research Paper 215, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 26 Oct 2011.
- Bernardini, Emmanuela & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2015.
"Macroeconomic forecasting and structural analysis through regularized reduced-rank regression,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 682-691.
- Emmanuela Bernardini & Gianluca Cubadda, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural analysis through regularized reduced-rank regression," CEIS Research Paper 289, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 03 Oct 2013.
- Rua, António, 2017.
"A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 581-590.
- António Rua, 2016. "A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting," Working Papers w201612, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Issler, João Victor & Lima, Luiz Renato, 2009.
"A panel data approach to economic forecasting: The bias-corrected average forecast,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 153-164, October.
- Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Issler, João Victor, 2007. "A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 650, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
- Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Issler, João Victor, 2008. "A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 668, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
- Issler, João Victor & Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira, 2007. "A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 642, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
- Issler, Joao Victor & Notini, Hilton & Rodrigues, Claudia & Soares, Ana Flávia, 2013. "Constructing coincident indices of economic activity for the Latin American economy," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(1), April.
- repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:67:n:1:a:4 is not listed on IDEAS
- Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2022.
"Dimension Reduction for High‐Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1123-1152, October.
- Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2020. "Dimension Reduction for High Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models," Papers 2009.03361, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
- Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2022. "Dimension Reduction for High Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models," CEIS Research Paper 534, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Mar 2022.
- Fabio Araujo & Joao Victor Issler, 2005.
"Estimating the Stochastic Discount Factor without a Utility Function,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2005
202, Society for Computational Economics.
- Araújo, Fabio & Issler, João Victor & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2005. "Estimating the stochastic discount factor without a utility function," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 583, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
- João Victor Issler & Hilton Hostalacio Notini & Claudia Fontoura Rodrigues, 2013.
"Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy,"
OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 43-65.
- Issler, João Victor & Notini, Hilton Hostalácio & Rodrigues, Claudia Oliveira da Fontoura, 2009. "Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the brazilian economy," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 694, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
- Issler, João Victor & Notini, Hilton Hostalácio & Rodrigues, Claudia Oliveira da Fontoura, 2012. "Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 730, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
- Issler, João Victor & Notini, Hilton Hostalácio & Rodrigues, Claudia Oliveira da Fontoura, 2011. "Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the brazilian economy," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 714, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
- Christian Gayer & Julien Genet, 2006. "Using factor models to construct composite indicators from BCS data - a comparison with European Commission confidence indicators," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 240, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Athanasopoulos, George & Issler, João Victor & Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho, 2005.
"Forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty using VAR models with short- and long-term economic restrictions: a Monte-Carlo study,"
FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE)
589, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
- Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & João Victor Issler & George Athanasopoulos, 2006. "Forecasting Accuracy and Estimation Uncertainty using VAR Models with Short- and Long-Term Economic Restrictions: A Monte-Carlo Study," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2006-01, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
- Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & João Victor Issler & George Athanasopoulos, 2005. "Forecasting Accuracy and Estimation Uncertainty Using VAR Models with Short- and Long-Term Economic Restrictions: A Monte-Carlo Study," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 15/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2020.
"Dimension Reduction for High Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models,"
Papers
2009.03361, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
- Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2022. "Dimension Reduction for High Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models," CEIS Research Paper 534, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Mar 2022.
- Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2003. "The Role of Common Cyclical Features for Coincident and Leading Indexes Building," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp03002, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
- Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & João Victor Issler, 2014.
"Microfounded Forecasting,"
Working Papers Series
372, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Issler, João Victor, 2019. "Microfounded forecasting," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 813, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
- Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Issler, João Victor, 2015. "Microfounded forecasting," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 766, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
- Alexandre Bonnet R. Costa & Pedro Cavalcanti G. Ferreira & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Osmani Teixeira C. Guillén & João Victor Issler & Artur Brasil Fialho Rodrigues, 2023. "Predicting Recessions in (almost) Real Time in a Big-data Setting," Working Papers Series 587, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain & Miller, Stephen M., 2011.
"Forecasting the US real house price index: Structural and non-structural models with and without fundamentals,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2013-2021, July.
- Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Forecasting the US Real House Price Index: Structural and Non-Structural Models with and without Fundamentals," Working Papers 200927, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Rangan Gupta & Alan Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2010. "Forecasting the US Real House Price Index: Structural and Non-Structural Models with and without Fundamentals," Working Papers 1001, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
- Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Forecasting the US Real House Price Index: Structural and Non-Structural Models with and without Fundamentals," Working papers 2009-42, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Issler, João Victor & Notini, Hilton Hostalácio & Rodrigues, Claudia Oliveira da Fontoura, 2009. "Um indicador coincidente e antecedente da atividade econômica brasileira," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 695, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
- Herman Kamil & Jose David Pulido & Jose Luis Torres, 2010. "El "IMACO": un índice mensual líder de la actividad económica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 609, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Jonas Krampe & Luca Margaritella, 2021. "Factor Models with Sparse VAR Idiosyncratic Components," Papers 2112.07149, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
- Mont'Alverne Duarte, Angelo & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & de Carvalho Guillén, Osmani Teixeira & Issler, João Victor, 2021.
"Commodity prices and global economic activity: A derived-demand approach,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
- Angelo Mont’Alverne Duarte & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & João Victor Issler, 2020. "Commodity Prices and Global Economic Activity: a derived-demand approach," Working Papers Series 539, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
More about this item
Keywords
Co-movements; Common cycles; Composite business cycle indicators; Euro area;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:367-374. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.