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Should we really care about building business cycle coincident indexes!


  • Alain Hecq


Quite often, the goal of the game when developing new coincident indexes of the economic activity is the comparison with NBER turning points. Using Monte Carlo simulations, this note illustrates that for the USA, any random linear combination of the four coincident variables would do the job as good as other more complicated methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Alain Hecq, 2005. "Should we really care about building business cycle coincident indexes!," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 141-144.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:12:y:2005:i:3:p:141-144 DOI: 10.1080/1350485042000338608

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Dissecting the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    2. Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2001. "On non-contemporaneous short-run co-movements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 389-397, December.
    3. Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2002. "The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 445, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    4. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    5. Rebecca A Emerson & David Hendry, 1994. "An evaluation of forecasting using leading indicators," Economics Papers 5., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    6. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel, 2000. "This is what the US leading indicators lead," Working Paper Series 0027, European Central Bank.
    7. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, January.
    8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Chapters,in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 95-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cubadda, Gianluca & Guardabascio, Barbara & Hecq, Alain, 2013. "A general to specific approach for constructing composite business cycle indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 367-374.

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