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How uncertain are the welfare costs of inflation?

  • Hasan Bakhshi
  • Ben Martin
  • Tony Yates

This paper quantifies for the United Kingdom the general equilibrium costs of individuals holding cash to economise on 'shopping time'. These are a subset of a wider range of costs caused by inflation. The paper tests whether or not money balances tend to a finite number as nominal interest rates tend to zero, and investigates how sensitive to this test are the welfare implications of rates of inflation above the Friedman rule (a zero nominal interest rate). The paper then explores how uncertainties about the shape of the money demand curve translate into uncertainties about these welfare costs of inflation. A key uncertainty is the existence of a satiation point for money balances. Using Monte Carlo tests, it is shown that without observations at nominal interest rates very close to zero, the power of satiation tests can be very low. This finding may also be important for evaluating whether/how monetary policy could stabilise the economy in the event of a shock large enough to require that nominal interest rates are driven close to zero.

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File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/2002/wp152.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 152.

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Date of creation: Feb 2002
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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:152
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  18. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1974. "The nonlinear two-stage least-squares estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 105-110, July.
  19. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Wright, Randall, 1989. "On Money as a Medium of Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 927-54, August.
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  21. Mervyn King, 1999. "Challenges for monetary policy : new and old," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-57.
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  29. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
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  32. Jag Chadha & Andrew Haldane & Norbert Janssen, 1998. "Shoe-leather costs reconsidered," Bank of England working papers 86, Bank of England.
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  35. Alexander L. Wolman, 1997. "Zero inflation and the Friedman rule: a welfare comparison," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-21.
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