IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v27y2010i6p1463-1472.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

IV threshold cointegration tests and the Taylor rule

Author

Listed:
  • Enders, Walter
  • Im, Kyung So
  • Lee, Junsoo
  • Strazicich, Mark C.

Abstract

The usual cointegration tests often entail nuisance parameters that hinder precise inference. This problem is even more pronounced in a nonlinear threshold framework when stationary covariates are included. In this paper, we propose new threshold cointegration tests based on instrumental variables estimation. The newly suggested IV threshold cointegration tests have standard distributions that do not depend on any stationary covariates. These desirable properties allow us to formally test for threshold cointegration in a nonlinear Taylor rule. We perform this analysis using real-time U.S. data for several sample periods from 1970 to 2005. In contrast to the linear model, we find strong evidence of cointegration in a nonlinear Taylor rule with threshold effects. Overall, we find that the Federal Reserve is far more policy active when inflation is high than when inflation is low. In addition, we reaffirm the notion that the response to counteract high inflation was weakest in the 1970s and strongest in the Greenspan era.

Suggested Citation

  • Enders, Walter & Im, Kyung So & Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C., 2010. "IV threshold cointegration tests and the Taylor rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1463-1472, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:6:p:1463-1472
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264-9993(10)00140-9
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
    3. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    4. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
    5. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    6. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    7. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C, 2001. " Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 535-558, December.
    8. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    9. Bec Frédérique & Ben Salem Mélika & Collard Fabrice, 2002. "Asymmetries in Monetary Policy Reaction Function: Evidence for U.S. French and German Central Banks," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-22, July.
    10. Helle Bunzel & Walter Enders, 2010. "The Taylor Rule and "Opportunistic" Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 931-949, August.
    11. Wan Shin, Dong & Lee, Oesook, 2003. "An instrumental variable approach for tests of unit roots and seasonal unit roots in asymmetric time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 29-52, July.
    12. Peter Boswijk, H., 1994. "Testing for an unstable root in conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 37-60, July.
    13. Taylor Mark P. & Davradakis Emmanuel, 2006. "Interest Rate Setting and Inflation Targeting: Evidence of a Nonlinear Taylor Rule for the United Kingdom," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, December.
    14. Boivin, Jean, 2006. "Has U.S. Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1149-1173, August.
    15. Qin, Ting & Enders, Walter, 2008. "In-sample and out-of-sample properties of linear and nonlinear Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 428-443, March.
    16. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    17. Nunes, Luis C & Newbold, Paul & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1997. "Testing for Unit Roots with Breaks: Evidence on the Great Crash and the Unit Root Hypothesis Reconsidered," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 435-448, November.
    18. Seo, Myunghwan, 2006. "Bootstrap testing for the null of no cointegration in a threshold vector error correction model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 129-150, September.
    19. Hansen Bruce E., 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
    20. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    21. Hansen, Bruce E., 1995. "Rethinking the Univariate Approach to Unit Root Testing: Using Covariates to Increase Power," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1148-1171, October.
    22. Zivot, Eric, 2000. "The Power Of Single Equation Tests For Cointegration When The Cointegrating Vector Is Prespecified," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(03), pages 407-439, June.
    23. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    24. Joseph P. Byrne & Roger Perman, 2006. "Unit Roots and Structural Breaks: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 2006_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Frederick Wallace, 2013. "Cointegration tests of purchasing power parity," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(4), pages 779-802, December.
    2. repec:eee:ecmode:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:114-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:reveco:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:6:p:1463-1472. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.