A Threshold Model of Real US GDP and the Problem of Constructing Confidence Intervals in TAR Models
We estimate real U.S. GDP growth as a threshold autoregressive process, and construct confidence intervals for the parameter estimates. However, there are various approaches that can be used in constructing the confidence intervals. Specifically, standard- t , bootstrap- t , and bootstrap-percentile confidence intervals are simulated for the slope coefficients and the estimated threshold. However, the results for the different methods have very different economic implications. We perform a Monte Carlo experiment to evaluate the various methods.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Date of revision:||2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (519) 884-0710 ext 2056
Fax: (519) 884-0201
Web page: http://www.wlu.ca/sbe/economics/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wlu:wpaper:eg0052. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Andrei Kovacsik)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.