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Price Transmission in the Cocoa-Chocolate Chain

Author

Listed:
  • Catherine ARAUJO BONJEAN

    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

  • Jean-François BRUN

    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

Abstract

There is a common perception among consumers that the retail prices respond faster to an increase in the price of raw material than to a decrease. This paper aims at testing the existence of such asymmetric price transmission in the cocoa-chocolate chain on the French market. Two types of asymmetry are suspected: asymmetry in the transmission of positive and negative shocks that may reflect non-competitive behaviour in the chocolate industry and asymmetry in the transmission of small and large shocks that may be due do adjustment costs. These hypotheses are tested using the two-step approach to cointegration of Engle and Granger extended to encompass possible asymmetric adjustment to disequilibrium. Estimates indicate that a three-regime error correction model is the most appropriate. On the one hand, the chocolate price does not adjust to small shocks in the cocoa market. On the other hand, the speed of adjustment is larger for negative deviations than for positive ones. Les consommateurs ont souvent l’impression que les prix de détail répondent plus vite aux augmentations du prix de la matière première qu’aux baisses. Aussi, l’objectif de ce travail est de tester l’existence d’une transmission asymétrique des fluctuations de prix entre la matière première, la fève de cacao, et le produit fini, la tablette de chocolat sur le marché français. Deux formes d’asymétrie, ayant chacune une origine différente, sont recherchées : d’une part, une asymétrie dans la transmission des chocs positifs et négatifs, potentiellement liée à l’exercice d’un pouvoir de marché des industriels, et d’autre part, une asymétrie dans la transmission des grands et des petits chocs de prix liée à la présence de coûts d’ajustement. Les résultats, obtenus à partir d’une modélisation TAR du déséquilibre de prix par rapport à leur valeur de long terme, ne permettent pas de rejeter ces hypothèses. Sur la plus grande partie de la période couverte (1960-2003) le prix de la fève et le prix de la tablette évoluent indépendamment l’un de l’autre. Toutefois, au moment du boom du cacao (fin 70) le prix de la tablette répond rapidement à la hausse des cours de la fève tandis qu’à la fin des années 80, alors que le prix de la fève est retombé à un bas niveau, le prix de la tablette revient lentement vers l’équilibre.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine ARAUJO BONJEAN & Jean-François BRUN, 2010. "Price Transmission in the Cocoa-Chocolate Chain," Working Papers 201003, CERDI.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1124
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Jean-François Brun, 2008. "Pouvoir de marché dans la filière cacao : l'hypothèse de Prebisch – Singer revisitée," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(5), pages 133-144.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ridha, Ahmad & Masbar, Raja & Aliasuddin & Silvia, Vivi, 2022. "Asymmetric Price Transmission in the Cocoa Supply Chain in Indonesia," Economia agro-alimentare / Food Economy, Italian Society of Agri-food Economics/Società Italiana di Economia Agro-Alimentare (SIEA), vol. 24(1), May.
    2. Tröster, Bernhard & Staritz, Cornelia & Grumiller, Jan & Maile, Felix, 2019. "Commodity dependence, global commodity chains, price volatility and financialisation: Price-setting and stabilisation in the cocoa sectors in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana," Working Papers 62, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).
    3. Ahmad Ridha & Raja Masbar & Aliasuddin Aliasuddin & Vivi Silvia, 2022. "Asymmetric Price Transmission in the Cocoa Supply Chain in Indonesia," Economia agro-alimentare, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 24(1), pages 1-21.
    4. Grumiller, Jan & Grohs, Hannes & Raza, Werner & Staritz, Cornelia & Tröster, Bernhard, 2018. "Strategies for sustainable upgrading in global value chains: The Ivorian and Ghanaian cocoa processing sectors," Policy Notes 24/2018, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).

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    Keywords

    Modèle TAR; Transmission de prix asymétrique; Cacao;
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