On the Use of Density Forecasts to Identify Asymmetry in Forecasters' Loss Functions
Abstract: We consider how to use information from reported density forecasts from surveys to identify asymmetry in forecasters' loss functions. We show that, for the three common loss functions - Lin-Lin, Linex, and Quad-Quad - we can infer the direction of loss asymmetry by just comparing point forecasts and the central tendency (mean or median) of the underlying density forecasts. If we know the entire distribution of the density forecast, we can calculate the loss function parameters based on the first order condition of forecast optimality. This method is applied to forecasts for annual real output growth and inflation obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We find that forecasters treat underprediction of real output growth more dearly than overprediction, reverse is true for inflation.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (518) 442-4735
Fax: (518) 442-4736
|Order Information:|| Postal: Department of Economics, BA 110 University at Albany State University of New York Albany, NY 12222 U.S.A.|
Web: http://www.albany.edu/economics/research/workingp/index.shtml Email:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008.
"Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, 03.
- Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Biases In Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality Or Asymmetric Loss?," CAMA Working Papers 2005-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Allan Timmermann & Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer, 2004. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 601, Econometric Society.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999.
"A real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Kajal Lahiri & Fushang Liu, 2006.
"Modeling Multi-Period Inflation Uncertainty Using a Panel of Density Forcasts,"
06-05, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Fushang Liu & Kajal Lahiri, 2006. "Modelling multi-period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1199-1219.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nya:albaec:09-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John Bailey Jones)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.