IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/quedwp/273631.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

US Inflation Dynamics 1981-2007: 13,193 Quarterly Observations

Author

Listed:
  • Smith, Gregor W.

Abstract

The new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) restricts multivariate forecasts. I estimate and test it entirely within a panel of professional forecasts, thus using the time-series, cross-forecaster, and cross-horizon dimensions of the panel. Estimation uses 13,193 observations on quarterly US inflation forecasts since 1981. The main finding is a significantly larger weight on expected future inflation than on past inflation, a finding which also is estimated with much more precision than in the standard approach. Inflation dynamics also are stable over time, with no decline in inflation inertia from the 1980s to the 2000s. But, as in historical data, identifying the output gap is difficult.

Suggested Citation

  • Smith, Gregor W., 2008. "US Inflation Dynamics 1981-2007: 13,193 Quarterly Observations," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 273631, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:quedwp:273631
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.273631
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/273631/files/qed_wp_1155.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.273631?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:quedwp:273631. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/qedquca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.