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Citations for "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?"

by Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros

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  1. Henry Siu & Nir Jaimovich, 2007. "The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility," 2007 Meeting Papers 521, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Timothy Cogley, . "How Fast Can the New Economy Grow? A Bayesian Analysis of the Evolution of Trend Growth," Working Papers 2133301, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
  3. Bivin, David, 2006. "Decomposing the contribution of smaller shocks to the stabilization of GDP," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 444-449, June.
  4. Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana, 2010. "Fortune or Virtue: Time Variant Volatilities versus Parameter Drifting in U.S. Data," 2010 Meeting Papers 270, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Gill Segal & Ivan Shaliastovich & Amir Yaron, 2014. "Good and Bad Uncertainty: Macroeconomic and Financial Market Implications," 2014 Meeting Papers 488, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Feigenbaum James A. & Li Geng, 2012. "Life Cycle Dynamics of Income Uncertainty and Consumption," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-49, May.
  7. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "The impacts of regime-switching structures and fat-tailed characteristics on the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 523-536.
  8. Christiano, Lawrence & Rostagno, Massimo & Motto, Roberto, 2010. "Financial factors in economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series 1192, European Central Bank.
  9. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2010. "The business cycle and the equity risk premium in real time," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-722, October.
  10. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2005. "Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 05/211, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation:An Alternative Interpretation," Working Papers 94, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  12. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 856-871, September.
  13. Baumeister, Christiane & Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2013. "Changes in the effects of monetary policy on disaggregate price dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 543-560.
  14. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2005. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 77-103.
  15. Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Modeling the volatility of real GDP growth: The case of Japan revisited," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 312-324, August.
  16. Gaballo, Gaetano, 2013. "Good luck or good policy? An expectational theory of macro volatility switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2755-2770.
  17. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2009. "Model selection criteria for factor-augmented regressions," Staff Reports 363, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  18. Thomas Mayer, 2006. "The Empirical Significance of Econometric Models," Working Papers 620, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  19. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K., 2009. "Are the Fed's inflation forecasts still superior to the private sector's?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, June.
  20. Irvine, F. Owen & Schuh, Scott, 2007. "Interest sensitivity and volatility reductions: Cross-section evidence," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1-2), pages 31-42, July.
  21. Silvio Contessi & Pierangelo De Pace & Johanna Francis, 2010. "Changes in the Second-Moment Properties of Disaggregated Capital Flows," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2010-10, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
  22. Marczak, Martyna & Gómez, Victor, 2013. "Monthly US business cycle indicators: A new multivariate approach based on a band-pass filter," FZID Discussion Papers 64-2013, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
  23. Christiane Baumeister & Luca Benati, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 165-212, June.
  24. Michael Kleemann & Gernot Mueller & Zeno Enders, 2015. "Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations," 2015 Meeting Papers 406, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  25. Thomas A. Lubik & Wing Leong Teo, 2010. "Inventories, Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," CAMA Working Papers 2010-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  26. Irvine, F. Owen & Schuh, Scott, 2005. "Inventory investment and output volatility," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 75-86, January.
  27. Beatrice Simo-Kengne & Stephen Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2016. "Evolution of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the US: the Role of Asset Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 226-243, April.
  28. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:543-557 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Juan Rubio-Ramirez, 2013. "Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Models with Stochastic Volatility," Working Papers 2013-23, FEDEA.
  30. Chun, Hyunbae & Kim, Jung-Wook, 2010. "Declining output growth volatility: A sectoral decomposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 151-153, March.
  31. Viceira, Luis M., 2012. "Bond risk, bond return volatility, and the term structure of interest rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 97-117.
  32. Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Kliem, Martin & Sarferaz, Samad, 2013. "On the low-frequency relationship between public deficits and inflation," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80000, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  33. De Veirman, Emmanuel & Levin, Andrew T., 2012. "When did firms become more different? Time-varying firm-specific volatility in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 578-601.
  34. Alina Carare & Ashoka Mody, 2012. "Spillovers of Domestic Shocks: Will They Counteract the ‘Great Moderation’?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 69-97, 04.
  35. Vasco Carvalho & Xavier Gabaix, 2013. "The Great Diversification and Its Undoing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1697-1727, August.
  36. Wenjuan Chen, 2011. "On the Continuation of the Great Moderation:New evidence from G7 Countries," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-060, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  37. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2004. "Comparing Shocks and Frictions in US and Euro Area Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 4750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  38. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2010. "Testing for Structural Breaks at Unknown Time: A Steeplechase," IWH Discussion Papers 19/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  39. Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "International Business Cycle Spillovers," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0903, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, revised Nov 2009.
  40. repec:zbw:rwirep:0216 is not listed on IDEAS
  41. Baghestani, Hamid & Khallaf, Ashraf, 2012. "Predictions of growth in U.S. corporate profits: Asymmetric vs. symmetric loss," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 222-229.
  42. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2010. "Decline in the persistence of real exchange rates, but not sufficient for purchasing power parity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 395-411, September.
  43. Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "Euro area inflation persistence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 977-1002, November.
  44. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Jeremy Nalewaik & Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2011. "Improving GDP Measurement: A Forecast Combination Perspective," NBER Working Papers 17421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Lubik, Thomas A. & Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. & Schwartzman, Felipe, 2014. "What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About How Business Cycles Have Changed," Working Paper 14-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  46. Cesaroni, Tatiana & Maccini, Louis & Malgarini, Marco, 2011. "Business cycle stylized facts and inventory behaviour: New evidence for the Euro area," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 12-24, September.
  47. Vázquez, Jesús, 2008. "The comovement between monetary and fiscal policy instruments during the post-war period in the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 412-424.
  48. Dimitris Korobilis, 2013. "Assessing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Using Time-varying Parameter Dynamic Factor Models-super-," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(2), pages 157-179, 04.
  49. Wei-Choun Yu, 2008. "Macroeconomic and financial market volatilities: an empirical evidence of factor model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(33), pages 1-18.
  50. Diego Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2005. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 11388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
  52. Hanson, Michael S., 2006. "Varying monetary policy regimes: A vector autoregressive investigation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 407-427.
  53. Duncan, Roberto, 2015. "Does the US current account show a symmetric behavior over the business cycle?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 253, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  54. Champagne, Julien & Kurmann, Andre & Stewart, Jay, 2016. "Reconciling the Divergence in Aggregate U.S. Wage Series," IZA Discussion Papers 9754, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  55. Moro, Alessio, 2009. "The structural transformation between manufacturing and services and the deline in the U.S. GDP volatility," UC3M Working papers. Economics we091409, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  56. Bae, Jinho & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "Earnings growth and the bull market of the 1990s: Is there a case for rational exuberance?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 690-707, December.
  57. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Rahbek, Anders & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2010. "Testing for co-integration in vector autoregressions with non-stationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 7-24, September.
  58. Alexander Karalis Isaac, 2014. "Higher moments of MSVARs and the business cycle," BCAM Working Papers 1405, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
  59. Bruce T. Grimm, 2007. "The Statistical Discrepancy," BEA Papers 0071, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  60. Shiller, Robert J. & Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis Manuel, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Scholarly Articles 10885503, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  61. Mertens, Karel, 2008. "Deposit rate ceilings and monetary transmission in the US," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1290-1302, October.
  62. Baele, Lieven & Bekaert, Geert & Cho, Seonghoon & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Moreno, Antonio, 2015. "Macroeconomic regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-71.
  63. Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2007. "Input and Output Inventories in General Equilibrium," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 658, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 23 Oct 2009.
  64. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S Prasad & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Global Business Cycles; Convergence or Decoupling?," IMF Working Papers 08/143, International Monetary Fund.
  65. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2008. "Do European business cycles look like one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2165-2190, July.
  66. DeNicco, James P., 2015. "Employment-At-Will Exceptions and jobless recovery," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 245-257.
  67. Fuentes-Albero, Cristina, 2012. "Financial Frictions, Financial Shocks, and Aggregate Volatility," Dynare Working Papers 18, CEPREMAP.
  68. Vadym Volosovych & Bent E. Sørensen & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2010. "Deep Financial Integration and Volatility," 2010 Meeting Papers 232, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  69. Xu, Ke-Li, 2012. "Robustifying multivariate trend tests to nonstationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 147-154.
  70. James Morley & Jeremy Piger & Pao-Lin Tien, 2012. "Reproducing Business Cycle Features: Are Nonlinear Dynamics a Proxy for Multivariate Information?," Discussion Papers 2012-23, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  71. Sensier, Marianne & Dick van Dijk, 2002. "Short-term Volatility versus Long-term Growth: Evidence in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 164, Royal Economic Society.
  72. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2015. "Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199338306, December.
  73. Jan J.J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Revisiting Useful Approaches to Data-Rich Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers 624, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  74. Philip Arestis & Santonu Basu, 2003. "Financial Globalization and Regulation," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_397, Levy Economics Institute.
  75. Castillo, Paul & Montoya, Jimena & Quineche, Ricardo, 2016. "From the “Great Inflation” to the “Great Moderation” in Peru: A Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions Analysis," Working Papers 2016-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  76. Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2011. "Testing for common autocorrelation in data‐rich environments," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 325-335, April.
  77. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2016. "Adaptive state space models with applications to the business cycle and financial stress," CEPR Discussion Papers 11599, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  78. Mennuni, Alessandro, 2013. "Labor Force Composition and Aggregate Fluctuations," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 1302, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  79. Gilbert Cette & Christian Pfister, 2003. "The challenges of the "new economy" for monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 213-233 Bank for International Settlements.
  80. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1465, Econometric Society.
  81. Pablo Burriel & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2009. "MEDEA: A DSGE Model for the Spanish Economy," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  82. Gert Peersman & Christiane Baumeister, 2009. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," 2009 Meeting Papers 171, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  83. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts," NBER Working Papers 22743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  84. Laurent Callot & Johannes Tang Kristensen, 2015. "Regularized Estimation of Structural Instability in Factor Models: The US Macroeconomy and the Great Moderation," CREATES Research Papers 2015-29, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  85. Karapanagiotidis, Paul, 2012. "Improving Bayesian VAR density forecasts through autoregressive Wishart Stochastic Volatility," MPRA Paper 38885, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  86. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," NBER Working Papers 16537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  87. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall & Christopher H. Wheeler, 2007. "The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2006-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  88. Emmanuel De Veirman & Andrew T. Levin, 2011. "Cyclical Changes in Firm Volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2011-29, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  89. Richard Ashley & Kwok Ping Tsang & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2010. "Frequency Dependence in a Real-Time Monetary Policy Rule," Working Papers e07-21, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  90. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Monetary Policy Effect on the Business Cycle Fluctuations: Output vs. Index Measures of the Cycle," Macroeconomics 0409015, EconWPA, revised 20 Sep 2004.
  91. Hofmann, Boris & Straub, Roland & Peersman, Gert, 2010. "Time variation in U.S. wage dynamics," Working Paper Series 1230, European Central Bank.
  92. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?," Working Papers 0711, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
  93. Xavier Gabaix, 2005. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," 2005 Meeting Papers 470, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  94. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  95. Alasdair Scott & Pau Rabanal & Prakash Kannan, 2009. "Macroeconomic Patterns and Monetary Policy in the Run-up to Asset Price Busts," IMF Working Papers 09/252, International Monetary Fund.
  96. Kwapil, Claudia & Scharler, Johann, 2013. "Expected monetary policy and the dynamics of bank lending rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 542-551.
  97. Milani, Fabio, 2014. "Learning and time-varying macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 94-114.
  98. Kihaule, Arnold Mathias, 2012. "The impact of economic policy shocks on the outcomes of the fiscal adjustment policies in Tanzania," MPRA Paper 46151, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2013.
  99. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2016. "Money and Output: Friedman and Schwartz Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1223-1266, 09.
  100. Luis Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, 2012. "Fractional integration and structural breaks in U.S. macro dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 427-446, August.
  101. Ricardo Reis, 2004. "Inattentive Consumers," Working Papers 135, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Discussion Papers in Economics.
  102. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," MPRA Paper 53699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  103. Toshiaki Watanabe & Hirokuni Uchiyama, 2005. "Structural Change in Japanese Business Fluctuations and Nikkei 225 Stock Index Futures Transactions," Finance Working Papers 22318, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  104. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Peter C. B. Phillips & Stephan Smeekes & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2015. "Lag Length Selection for Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Nonstationary Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 512-536, April.
  105. Czudaj, Robert & Hanck, Christoph, 2013. "Nonstationary-Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests and the Great Moderation," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79734, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  106. Georgios KOURETAS & Mark E. WOHAR, . "The Dynamics of Inflation: A Study of a Large Number of Countries," EcoMod2010 259600096, EcoMod.
  107. repec:zbw:iwhdps:19-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  108. Claudia M. Buch & Joerg Doepke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Business Cycle Volatility in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(4), pages 451-479, November.
  109. McNown, Robert & Seip, Knut Lehre, 2011. "Periods and structural breaks in US economic history 1959-2007," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 169-182, March.
  110. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2007. "On the sources of the Great Moderation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  111. Reicher, Christopher Phillip & Utlaut, Johannes Friederich, 2011. "The effect of inflation on real commodity prices," Kiel Working Papers 1704, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  112. Òscar Jordá & Malte Knuppel & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts," Working Paper Series 2012-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  113. Smeekes S. & Urbain J.R.Y.J., 2014. "A multivariate invariance principle for modified wild bootstrap methods with an application to unit root testing," Research Memorandum 008, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
  114. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Terrones, Marco E., 2006. "How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship between Growth and Volatility?," IZA Discussion Papers 2252, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  115. Dennis J. Fixler & Jeremy Nalewaik, 2010. "News, Noise, and Estimates of the "True" Unobserved State of the Economy," BEA Working Papers 0068, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  116. Fossati, Sebastian, 2014. "Output Growth and Commodity Prices in Latin America: What Has Changed?," Working Papers 2014-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
  117. Segal, Gill & Shaliastovich, Ivan & Yaron, Amir, 2015. "Good and bad uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial market implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 369-397.
  118. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2005. "A search for a structural Phillips curve," Staff Reports 203, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  119. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2010. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," NIPE Working Papers 21/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  120. Soloschenko, Max & Weber, Enzo, 2012. "Trend-Cycle Interactions and the Subprime Crisis: Analysis of US and Canadian Output," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 470, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
  121. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2009. "The Econometrics of DSGE Models," NBER Working Papers 14677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  122. Jouni Sohkanen & B. Nielsen, 2009. "Asymptotic behaviour of the CUSUM of squares test under stochastic and deterministic time trends," Economics Papers 2009-W09, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  123. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos, 2011. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM Business Surveys," Discussion Papers 11-01, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  124. Massimiliano Marcellino & James Stock & Mark Watson, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers 285, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  125. James B. Bullard & Aarti Singh, 2009. "Learning and the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2007-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  126. Biscarri, Javier Gómez & Moreno, Antonio & Gracia, Fernando Pérez de, 2010. "Money demand accommodation: Impact on macro-dynamics and policy consequences," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 138-154, January.
  127. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2011. "Stock return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from century-long U.S. data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 868-879.
  128. John A. Tatom, 2011. "Inflation and Asset Prices," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-26, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
  129. Olaf, POSCH & Klaus, WAELDE, 2005. "Natural volatility, welfare and taxation," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005009, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  130. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2006. "Can the identification puzzle of Taiwan's turning points after 1990 be solved?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 174-195, January.
  131. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "Reading the Recent Monetary History of the U.S., 1959-2007," NBER Working Papers 15929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  132. Kristie M. Engemann & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang, 2010. "Do oil shocks drive business cycles? some U.S. and international evidence," Working Papers 2010-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  133. Herwartz, Helmut & Plödt, Martin, 2014. "Sign restrictions and statistical identification under volatility breaks -- Simulation based evidence and an empirical application to monetary policy analysis," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100326, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  134. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2013. "Measuring the Dynamics of Global Business Cycle Connectedness," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-070, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  135. Giuseppe Cavaliere & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2006. "Testing for a change in persistence in the presence of non-stationary volatility," Discussion Papers 06/04, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  136. Carmen M. & M. Belen Sbrancia, 2011. "The Liquidation of Government Debt," Working Paper Series WP11-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  137. James B. Bullard & Aarti Singh, 2007. "Worldwide macroeconomic stability and monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2006-040, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  138. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
  139. By James Feigenbaum & Geng Li, 2015. "Household income uncertainties over three decades," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(4), pages 963-986.
  140. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2016. "Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 22839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  141. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2016. "A dynamic factor model of the yield curve components as a predictor of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 324-343.
  142. Emmanuel De Veirman & Andrew Levin, 2009. "Measuring Changes in Firm-Level Volatility: An Application to Japan," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/20, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  143. Heikki Kauppi, 2008. "Yield-Curve Based Probit Models for Forecasting U.S. Recessions: Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 31, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  144. Marco Cipriani & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2007. "Volatility in International Financial Market Issuance: The Role of the Financial Center," Working Papers 212007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  145. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2007. "Total Factor Productivity and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Conditional Volatility," Working papers 2007-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  146. Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Wension Vincent, YAO, 2004. "Business Cycle Turning Points : Mixed-Frequency Data with Structural Breaks," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2004024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  147. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon, 2010. "A flexible approach to parametric inference in nonlinear and time varying time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 134-150, November.
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  444. Olga Gorbachev, 2011. "Did Household Consumption Become More Volatile?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2248-70, August.
  445. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4626.
  446. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2016. "Modest macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks during the great moderation: An alternative interpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 300-314.
  447. Belanger, Gilles, 2014. "Interest Rates Rigidities and the Fisher Equation," MPRA Paper 54705, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  448. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2015. "Towards a General Theory of Deep Downturns," NBER Working Papers 21444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  449. Pena, Daniel & Rodriguez, Julio, 2005. "Detecting nonlinearity in time series by model selection criteria," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 731-748.
  450. Luca Benati and Paolo Surico, 2007. "Vector Autoregression Analysis and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 18, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  451. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "Did Credit Decouple from Output in the Great Moderation?," MPRA Paper 47424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  452. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2011. "Testing for structural breaks in dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 71-84, July.
  453. Altavilla, Carlo & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2010. "Evaluating the effect of monetary policy on unemployment with alternative inflation forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 237-253, January.
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  455. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2014. "Multi-step forecasting in the presence of breaks," MPRA Paper 55816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  457. Dirk-Jan van de Ven & Roger Fouquet, 2014. "Historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy," GRI Working Papers 153, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  458. Mikael Juselius & Mathias Drehmann, 2015. "Leverage dynamics and the real burden of debt," BIS Working Papers 501, Bank for International Settlements.
  459. David Shepherd & Robert Dixon, 2010. "The not-so-great moderation? Evidence on changing volatility from Australian regions," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1090, The University of Melbourne.
  460. Philippe Moutot & Giovanni Vitale, 2009. "Monetary policy strategy in a global environment," Occasional Paper Series 106, European Central Bank.
  461. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2010. "Trend inflation and macroeconomic volatilities in the post-WWII U.S. economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 19-33, March.
  462. Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith & Matthew Weiss, 2008. "Forecast Errors Before and After the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2008-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2009.
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  464. Steven Trypsteen, 2014. "Cross-Country Interactions, the Great Moderation and the Role of Output Volatility in Growth," Discussion Papers 2014/14, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  465. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2011. "The changing sensitivity of realized portfolio betas to U.S. output growth: An analysis based on real-time data," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 168-186, May.
  466. Andre Kurmann & Julien Champagne, 2010. "The Great Increase in Relative Volatility of Real Wages in the United States," 2010 Meeting Papers 674, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  467. Francesco Bianchi & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation: Evidence From a Markov-Switching cay," NBER Working Papers 22572, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  468. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan G, 2016. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables under Model Instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 11355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  469. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:33:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
  470. Angang Hu & Jie Lu & Zhengyan Xiao, 2011. "Has China's Economy Become More Stable and Inertial? Nonlinear Investigations Based on Structural Break and Duration Dependent Regime Switching Models," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(1), pages 157-181, May.
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  472. Broer, Tobias & Kero, Afroditi, 2014. "Collateralisation bubbles when investors disagree about risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 10148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  476. Maximo Camacho, 2004. "Vector smooth transition regression models for US GDP and the composite index of leading indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 173-196.
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  480. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Lorena Saiz & Universidad de Murcia, 2006. "Do european business cycles look like one $\_?$," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 175, Society for Computational Economics.
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  482. Francesco Nucci & Marianna Riggi, 2011. "Performance pay and shifts in macroeconomic correlations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 800, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  483. Koo, Bonsoo & Seo, Myung Hwan, 2015. "Structural-break models under mis-specification: Implications for forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 166-181.
  484. Greg Hannsgen, 2011. "Infinite-variance, Alpha-stable Shocks in Monetary SVAR: Final Working Paper Version," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_682, Levy Economics Institute.
  485. Fernando Alexandre & Luís Aguiar Conraria & Pedro Bação & Miguel Portela, 2011. "A Poupança em Portugal," GEMF Working Papers 2011-19, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  486. Amit Basu & Thomas F. Siems, 2004. "The impact of e-business technologies on supply chain operations: a macroeconomic perspective," Working Papers 0404, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  487. Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2008. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: A Dynamic Factor Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7069, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  489. Fernandez, Adriana Z. & Koenig, Evan F. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2010. "Can alternative Taylor-rule specifications describe Federal Reserve policy decisions?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 733-757, November.
  490. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "How Sweden's Unemployment Became More Like Europe's," NBER Chapters, in: Reforming the Welfare State: Recovery and Beyond in Sweden, pages 189-223 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  491. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 481-493, June.
  492. Broer, Tobias & Kero, Afroditi, 2011. "Great Moderation or Great Mistake: Can rising confidence in low macro-risk explain the boom in asset prices?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8700, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  493. João Valle e Azevedo & Ana Pereira, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation (and the Business Cycle?) with Monetary Aggregates," Working Papers w201024, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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