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Credit Constraints, Learning, And Aggregate Consumption Volatility

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  • Tortorice, Daniel L.

Abstract

This paper documents three facts. First, the volatility of consumption growth relative to income growth rose from 1947 to 1960 and then fell dramatically by 50% from the 1960s to the 1990s. Second, the correlation between consumption growth and personal income growth fell by about 50% over the same time period. Finally, the absolute deviation of consumption growth from its mean exhibits one break in U.S. data, and the mean of the absolute deviations has fallen by about 30%. A standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is unable to explain these facts. I examine ability of two hypotheses to account for these facts: a fall in credit constraints and changing beliefs about the permanence of income shocks. I find evidence for both explanations. The beliefs explanation is more consistent with the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Tortorice, Daniel L., 2014. "Credit Constraints, Learning, And Aggregate Consumption Volatility," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 338-368, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:18:y:2014:i:02:p:338-368_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Tortorice, Daniel L, 2018. "The business cycle implications of fluctuating long run expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 266-291.
    2. Ishraq Ahmed & Erick Kitenge, 2022. "Microfinance outreach and aggregate welfare," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 652-669, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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