IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nlv/wpaper/0903.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Great Moderation Flattens Fat Tails: Disappearing Leptokurtosis

Author

Listed:
  • WenShwo Fang

    () (Department of Economics, Feng Chia University)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    () (Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Las Vegas)

  • ChunShen Lee

    () (Department of Economics, Feng Chia University)

Abstract

Recently, Fagiolo et al. (2008) find fat tails in the distribution of economic growth rates after adjusting for outliers, autocorrelation, and heteroskedasticity. This paper employs US quarterly real output growth, showing that this finding of fat tails may reflect the Great Moderation. That is, leptokurtosis disappears after GARCH adjustment once we incorporate the break in the variance equation to account for the Great Moderation.

Suggested Citation

  • WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2009. "The Great Moderation Flattens Fat Tails: Disappearing Leptokurtosis," Working Papers 0903, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:nlv:wpaper:0903
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://web.unlv.edu/projects/RePEc/pdf/0903.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2009
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Kramer, Walter & Azamo, Baudouin Tameze, 2007. "Structural change and estimated persistence in the GARCH(1,1)-model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 17-23, October.
    3. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? some evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 639-669.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    5. Hillebrand, Eric, 2005. "Neglecting parameter changes in GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 121-138.
    6. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    7. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
    8. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    9. Franses, Philip Hans & Ghijsels, Hendrik, 1999. "Additive outliers, GARCH and forecasting volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Modeling the volatility of real GDP growth: The case of Japan revisited," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 312-324, August.
    2. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
    3. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
    4. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Output Growth and its Volatility: The Gold Standard through the Great Moderation," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 728-751, January.
    5. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2008. "Cross‐Country Evidence On Output Growth Volatility: Nonstationary Variance And Garch Models," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 509-541, September.
    6. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2018. "On the interdependence of natural gas and stock markets under structural breaks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 149-161.
    7. Mohitosh Kejriwal, 2017. "A Robust Sequential Procedure for Estimating the Number of Structural Changes in Persistence," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1303, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    8. Jorge M. Andraz & Nélia M. Norte, 2017. "Gross domestic product growth, volatility and regime changes nexus: the case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, April.
    9. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero & Balazs Egert, 2010. "The VARying Effect of Foreign Shocks in Central and Eastern Europe," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp989, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    10. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo.
    11. María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2016. "Oil Price and Economic Growth: A Long Story?," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(4), pages 1-28, October.
    12. Giorgio Canarella & WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Is the Great Moderation Ending? UK and US Evidence," Working Papers 0801, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    13. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2019. "Islamic and conventional equity markets: Two sides of the same coin, or not?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 191-205.
    14. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2014. "Identifying Changes in Mean, Seasonality, Persistence and Volatility for G7 and Euro Area Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(3), pages 360-388, June.
    15. Steven Trypsteen, 2014. "Cross-Country Interactions, the Great Moderation and the Role of Output Volatility in Growth," Discussion Papers 2014/10, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    16. Samih Antoine Azar & Angelic Salha, 2017. "The Bias in the Long Run Relation between the Prices of BRENT and West Texas Intermediate Crude Oils," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 44-54.
    17. Cizek, P. & Haerdle, W. & Spokoiny, V., 2007. "Adaptive Pointwise Estimation in Time-Inhomogeneous Time-Series Models," Other publications TiSEM a797e4a8-12cf-4ac5-9fae-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia & Égert, Balázs, 2010. "The effect of foreign shocks in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 461-477, July.
    19. Cizek, P. & Haerdle, W. & Spokoiny, V., 2007. "Adaptive Pointwise Estimation in Time-Inhomogeneous Time-Series Models," Discussion Paper 2007-35, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    20. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2021. "Econometric history of the growth–volatility relationship in the USA: 1919–2017," Post-Print hal-03186891, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real GDP growth; the Great Moderation; leptokurtosis; GARCH models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nlv:wpaper:0903. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bill Robinson). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/denlvus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.