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Growth Volatility and the Structure of the Economy

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  • Davide Fiaschi
  • Andrea Mario Lavezzi

Abstract

The aim of the paper is twofold: i) to propose a methodology to compute the growth rate volatility of an economy, and ii) to investigate the relationship between growth volatility and economic development through the lenses of the structural characteristics of an economy. We study a large cross-section of countries in the period 1970-2009, controlling for the stability of the estimates in two subperiods: 1970:1989 (Period I) and 1990:2009 (Period II). Our main findings are: i) the degree of trade openness has a destabilizing effect, while the degree of financial openness has not a significant effect; ii) the size of the public sector displays a U-shaped relationship with growth volatility, but only in Period II; iii) the level of financial development has a negative effect on growth volatility, but only in Period I. Therefore, the dominant policy orientations in the recent decades contained emphasis on potential sources of instability, e.g. on the increase in openness and on the reduction of the size of the public sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Fiaschi & Andrea Mario Lavezzi, 2011. "Growth Volatility and the Structure of the Economy," Discussion Papers 2011/117, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:pie:dsedps:2011/117
    Note: ISSN 2039-1854
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    File URL: https://www.ec.unipi.it/documents/Ricerca/papers/2011-117.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "Trade Openness and Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 558-585, August.
    2. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January.
    3. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287.
    4. Edward L. Glaeser & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2004. "Do Institutions Cause Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 271-303, September.
    5. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    6. Davide Fiaschi & Andrea Mario Lavezzi, 2003. "On the Determinants of Growth Volatility: a Nonparametric Approach," Discussion Papers 2003/25, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Sospeter N. Onchoke & Francis In, 1998. "An evaluation of export revenues as determinants of economic growth in the South Pacific island nations," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(7), pages 857-869.
    8. Ewald Walterskirchen & et al., 1998. "Export-led Economic Growth. Austria's Economy in 1997," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 71(4), pages 239-280, April.
    9. Allen C. Head, 1995. "Country Size, Aggregate Fluctuations, and International Risk Sharing," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(4b), pages 1096-1119, November.
    10. Canning, D. & Amaral, L. A. N. & Lee, Y. & Meyer, M. & Stanley, H. E., 1998. "Scaling the volatility of GDP growth rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 335-341, September.
    11. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2009. "The geography of output volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-178, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Davide fiaschi & Lisa Gianmoena & Angela Parenti, 2013. "The Determinants of Growth Rate Volatility in European Regions," Discussion Papers 2013/170, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Irene Brunetti & Davide fiaschi & Lisa Gianmoena, 2013. "An Index of Growth Rate Volatility: Methodology and an Application to European Regions," Discussion Papers 2013/169, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Andros Kourtellos & Ioanna Stylianou & Chih Tan, 2015. "Robust multiple regimes in growth volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 461-491, February.
    4. repec:taf:specan:v:12:y:2017:i:2-3:p:251-278 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    growth volatility; economic development; economic structure; nonparametric methods.;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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