IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Banking industry volatility and growth

  • Lin, Pei-Chien
  • Huang, Ho-Chuan (River)

In this paper, we provide evidence that banking industry volatility may exert a negative impact on growth in a more economically integrated world. By applying the augmented difference-in-difference framework of Rajan and Zingales (1998) to the cross-country cross-industry data developed by Ciccone and Papaioannou (2009), complemented by the Financial Development and Structure database of Beck et al. (2010), we show that over the 1980–1999 period the banking sector volatility, measured as the standard deviation of the growth of private credit, has a negative impact on the growth of industries that are more externally financially dependent, and this finding is robust to various sensitivity tests. However, the detrimental growth effect of banking sector volatility disappears when the sample is restricted to the relatively placid 1980s. Compared to the 1980s, the 1990s are characterized by a more economically integrated world accompanied by more often unpredicted financial crises that disturb the banking sector. As such, our results imply that in a more economically integrated world, the stability of bank development may be important to long-run growth.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070412000869
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 1007-1019

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:34:y:2012:i:4:p:1007-1019
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Ang, James B., 2011. "Financial development, liberalization and technological deepening," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 688-701, June.
  2. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Yunyong Thaicharoen, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," NBER Working Papers 9124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Norman Loayza & Romain Ranciere, 2005. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth," IMF Working Papers 05/170, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Nandini Gupta & Kathy Yuan, 2009. "On the Growth Effect of Stock Market Liberalizations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4715-4752, November.
  5. James B. Ang & Jakob B. Madsen, 2010. "Can Second-Generation Endogenous Growth Models Explain The Productivity Trends And Knowledge Production In The Asian Miracle Economies?," CAMA Working Papers 2010-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  6. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance, firm size, and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3485, The World Bank.
  7. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P, 1993. "Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 145-63, June.
  8. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Koren, Miklós & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2005. "Volatility and Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 5307, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Knack, Stephen & Keefer, Philip, 1995. "Institutions and Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Indicators," MPRA Paper 23118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2006. "Trade Openness and Volatility," Development Working Papers 219, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
  12. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2000. "Funding growth in bank-based and market-based financial systems : evidence from firm level data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2432, The World Bank.
  13. Antonio Ciccone & Elias Papaioannou, 2005. "Human Capital, the Structure of Production, and Growth," Working Papers 245, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  14. Claessens, Stijn & Laeven, Luc, 2002. "Financial development, property rights, and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2924, The World Bank.
  15. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  16. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October.
  17. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
  18. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Baccheta & Romain Ranciere & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 06-16, Swiss Finance Institute.
  19. Rafael Domenech & Javier Andres & Antonio Fatas, 2006. "The Stabilizing Role of Government Size," Working Papers 0603, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia, revised Jan 2007.
  20. Nauro F. Campos & Jeffrey B. Nugent, 2003. "Aggregate Investment and Political Instability: An Econometric Investigation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 70(279), pages 533-549, 08.
  21. Nicola Cetorelli & Michele Gambera, 1999. "Banking Market Structure, Financial Dependence and Growth: International Evidence from Industry Data," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-19, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  22. Nathan Nunn, 2007. "Relationship-Specificity, Incomplete Contracts, and the Pattern of Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(2), pages 569-600.
  23. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 423-442, March.
  24. Enrica Detragiache & Abdul Abiad & Thierry Tressel, 2008. "A New Database of Financial Reforms," IMF Working Papers 08/266, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2004. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Rules in the US States," CEPR Discussion Papers 4372, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Ang, James B., 2011. "Finance and consumption volatility: Evidence from India," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 947-964, October.
  27. Ross Levine, 2002. "Bank-Based or Market-Based Financial Systems: Which is Better?," NBER Working Papers 9138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk, 2006. "The Effects of Volatility on Growth and Financial Development through Capital Market Imperfections," MPRA Paper 5486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  29. Andréi A. Levchenko & Romain Rancière & Mathias Thoenig, 2009. "Growth and risk at the industry level: The real effects of financial liberalization," Post-Print halshs-00754348, HAL.
  30. Norman V. Loayza & Romain Rancière & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Developing Countries: an Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00754201, HAL.
  31. Enisse Kharroubi, 2007. "Crises, Volatility, and Growth," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(3), pages 439-460, October.
  32. Oecd, 2005. "Decoupling: A Conceptual Overview," OECD Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 5(11), pages 1-31.
  33. Joonkyung Ha & Peter Howitt, 2007. "Accounting for Trends in Productivity and R&D: A Schumpeterian Critique of Semi-Endogenous Growth Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 733-774, 06.
  34. Ang, James B. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 2007. "Financial liberalization, financial sector development and growth: Evidence from Malaysia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 215-233, September.
  35. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2002. "Industry growth and capital allocation:*1: does having a market- or bank-based system matter?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 147-180, May.
  36. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 1996. "Financial Dependence and Growth," NBER Working Papers 5758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Stijn Claessens & Luc Laeven, 2005. "Financial Dependence, Banking Sector Competition, and Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 179-207, 03.
  38. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2010. "Financial Institutions and Markets across Countries and over Time: The Updated Financial Development and Structure Database," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 24(1), pages 77-92, January.
  39. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance, entrepreneurship and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 513-542, December.
  40. Klingebiel, Daniela & Kroszner, Randall S & Laeven, Luc, 2006. "Banking Crises, Financial Dependence and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 5623, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  41. Andrei A. Levchenko, 2004. "Institutional Quality and International Trade," IMF Working Papers 04/231, International Monetary Fund.
  42. Aghion, Philippe & Angeletos, George-Marios & Banerjee, Abhijit & Manova, Kalina, 2010. "Volatility and growth: Credit constraints and the composition of investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 246-265, April.
  43. James B. Ang, 2007. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Monash Economics Working Papers 03-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  44. Aymo Brunetti & Beatrice Weder, 1998. "Investment and institutional uncertainty: A comparative study of different uncertainty measures," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(3), pages 513-533, September.
  45. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934 Elsevier.
  46. William Easterly, 2003. "National Policies and Economic Growth: A Reappraisal," Working Papers 27, Center for Global Development.
  47. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 157-79, May.
  48. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
  49. Matías Braun & Borja Larrain, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-Industry Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1097-1128, 06.
  50. Borja Larrain, 2006. "Do Banks Affect the Level and Composition of Industrial Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1897-1925, 08.
  51. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "International Capital Movements, Financial Volatility and Financial Instability," NBER Working Papers 6390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:34:y:2012:i:4:p:1007-1019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.