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Estimating Trends in Male Earnings Volatility with the Panel Study of Income Dynamics

Author

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  • Robert Moffitt
  • Sisi Zhang

Abstract

The Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) has been the workhorse dataset used to estimate trends in U.S. earnings volatility at the individual level. We provide updated estimates for male earnings volatility using additional years of data. The analysis confirms prior work showing upward trends in the 1970s and 1980s, with a near doubling of the level of volatility over that period. The results also confirm prior work showing a resumption of an upward trend starting in the 2000s, but the new years of data available show volatility to be falling in recent years. By 2018, volatility had grown by a modest amount relative to the 1990s, with a growth rate only one-fifth the magnitude of that in the 1970s and 1980s. We show that neither attrition or item nonresponse bias, nor other issues with the PSID, affect these conclusions.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Moffitt & Sisi Zhang, 2022. "Estimating Trends in Male Earnings Volatility with the Panel Study of Income Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 20-25, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:41:y:2022:i:1:p:20-25
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2102024
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Yushi & Zhang, Sisi, 2023. "Understanding income volatility in urban China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    2. Nils Torben Hollandt & Steffen Mueller, 2025. "The contribution of employer changes to aggregate wage mobility," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 490-515.
    3. J. Carter Braxton & Kyle Herkenhoff & Jonathan Rothbaum & Lawrence Schmidt, 2025. "Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(12), pages 4438-4475, December.
    4. James P. Ziliak & Charles Hokayem & Christopher R. Bollinger, 2022. "Trends in Earnings Volatility Using Linked Administrative and Survey Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 12-19, December.
    5. Kevin L. McKinney & John M. Abowd, 2022. "Male Earnings Volatility in LEHD Before, During, and After the Great Recession," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 33-39, December.
    6. Edmund Crawley & Martin Holm & Håkon Tretvoll, 2022. "A Parsimonious Model of Idiosyncratic Income," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-026, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. repec:rim:rimwps:23-05 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Michael D. Carr & Robert A. Moffitt & Emily E. Wiemers, 2020. "Reconciling Trends in Volatility: Evidence from the SIPP Survey and Administrative Data," NBER Working Papers 27672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Gizem Koşar & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2025. "Workers’ Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(S1), pages 83-121.
    10. Adam Bee & Joshua Mitchell & Nikolas Mittag & Jonathan Rothbaum & Carl Sanders & Lawrence Schmidt & Matthew Unrath, 2023. "National Experimental Wellbeing Statistics - Version 1," Working Papers 23-04, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    11. Manning, Alan & Mazeine, Graham, 2024. "Subjective job insecurity and the rise of the precariat: evidence from the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114258, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Carr, Michael D. & Wiemers, Emily E., 2021. "The role of low earnings in differing trends in male earnings volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

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