IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/sfb649/sfb649dp2008-066.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The U.S. business cycle, 1867-1995: Dynamic factor analysis vs. reconstructed national accounts

Author

Listed:
  • Ritschl, Albrecht
  • Sarferaz, Samad
  • Uebele, Martin

Abstract

This paper presents insights on U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867 de- rived from diffusion indices. We employ a Bayesian dynamic factor model to obtain aggregate and sectoral economic activity indices. We find a remarkable increase in volatility across World War I, which is reversed after World War II. While we can generate evidence of postwar moderation relative to pre-1914, this evidence is not robust to structural change, implemented by time-varying factor loadings. We do find evidence of moderation in the nominal series, however, and reproduce the standard result of moderation since the 1980s. Our estimates broadly confirm the NBER historical business cycle chronology as well the National Income and Product Accounts, except for World War II where they support alternative estimates of Kuznets (1952).

Suggested Citation

  • Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2008. "The U.S. business cycle, 1867-1995: Dynamic factor analysis vs. reconstructed national accounts," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-066, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2008-066
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/25309/1/590225162.PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simon Kuznets & Lillian Epstein & Elizabeth Jenks, 1946. "National Income and Its Composition, 1919-1938, Volume II," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn41-3, June.
    2. John W. Kendrick, 1961. "Productivity Trends in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kend61-1, July.
    3. repec:bla:revinw:v:21:y:1975:i:2:p:153-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    5. Carter,Susan B. & Gartner,Scott Sigmund & Haines,Michael R. & Olmstead,Alan L. & Sutch,Richard & Wri (ed.), 2006. "The Historical Statistics of the United States 5 Volume Hardback Set," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521817912, Enero-Abr.
    6. Robert J. Gordon & John Veitch, 1986. "Fixed Investment in the American Business Cycle, 1919-83," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 267-358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1, July.
    8. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, July.
    9. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Front matter, The American Business Cycle. Continuity and Change," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages -15, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
    2. Stefan Oliver Houpt & Juan Carlos Rojo Cagigal, 2014. "Relative deprivation and labour conflict during Spain’s industrialization: the Bilbao estuary, 1914–1936," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 8(3), pages 335-369, September.
    3. Thomas L. Hogan, Daniel J. Smith, Robin Aguiar-Hicks, 2018. "Central Banking without Romance," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 15(2), pages 293-314, December.
    4. Matthias Morys & Martin Ivanov, 2015. "The emergence of a European region: business cycles in South-East Europe from political independence to World War II," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 19(4), pages 382-411.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2008. "The U.S. business cycle, 1867-1995: dynamic factor analysis vs. reconstructed national accounts," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 22305, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2016. "The U.S. business cycle, 1867–2006: a dynamic factor approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67420, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Riccardo DiCecio, 2004. "Comovement: it's not a puzzle," 2004 Meeting Papers 113, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Reicher, Christopher Phillip, 2009. "Expectations, monetary policy, and labor markets: lessons from the Great Depression," Kiel Working Papers 1543, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. repec:ehl:wpaper:22305 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Cooper, Russell & Ejarque, Joao, 1995. "Financial intermediation and the Great Depression: a multiple equilibrium interpretation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 285-323, December.
    7. Greg Hannsgen, 2011. "Infinite-variance, Alpha-stable Shocks in Monetary SVAR: Final Working Paper Version," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_682, Levy Economics Institute.
    8. Andrew Filardo & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Marek Raczko, 2018. "Measuring financial cycle time," BIS Working Papers 755, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Karras, Georgios & Song, Frank, 1996. "Sources of business-cycle volatility: An exploratory study on a sample of OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 621-637.
    10. Fabien Tripier, 2009. "Elasticity of factor substitution and the rise in labor's share of income during the Great Depression," Working Papers hal-00419343, HAL.
    11. Wynne, Mark A. & Balke, Nathan S., 1992. "Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 183-189, June.
    12. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.
    13. Mark Weder, 2010. "Economic Crisis and Economic Theory," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(s1), pages 7-12, September.
    14. Pedro S. Amaral & James MacGee, 2009. "Re-Examining the Role of Sticky Wages in the U.S. Great Contraction: A Multisectoral Approach," Working Papers (Old Series) 0911, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    15. Weder, Mark, 2001. "The Great Demand Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 3067, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Juan E. Castañeda & José Luis Cendejas, 2024. "Money Growth, Money Velocity and Inflation in the US, 1948–2021," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(5), pages 999-1014, November.
    17. Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2010. "Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," 2010 Meeting Papers 141, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Giovanni Bonifati, 2014. "Investimenti, consumi e occupazione. Capacità produttiva, domanda effettiva e distribuzione del reddito nel lungo periodo," Department of Economics 0046, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    19. James Peery Cover & C. James Hueng, 2003. "The Correlation between Shocks to Output and the Price Level: Evidence from a Multivariate GARCH Model," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(1), pages 75-92, July.
    20. Joseph H. Haimowitz, 1998. "The longevity of expansions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q IV), pages 13-34.
    21. Stephen Broadberry & Jagjit S. Chadha & Jason Lennard & Ryland Thomas, 2023. "Dating business cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700–2010," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(4), pages 1141-1162, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    U.S. business cycle; volatility; dynamic factor analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2008-066. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sohubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.