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A Theory of Just-in-Time and the Growth in Manufacturing Trade

Listed author(s):
  • Dalton, John

This paper argues the widespread adoption of Just-in-Time (JIT) logistics provides a key to understanding the growth in the U.S. trade share. To do so, I develop a dynamic trade model based on the choice of the logistics technology used in a firm's supply chain. The model's predicted trade dynamics depend on how the set of firms using JIT with international suppliers changes over time. A numerical example shows the model is capable of generating growth in the trade share. I present evidence showing the theory is consistent with aggregate data as well as industry-level panel data.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/48223/1/MPRA_paper_48223.pdf
File Function: original version
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 48223.

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Date of creation: Jan 2013
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48223
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  1. Hummels, David L. & Schaur, Georg, 2010. "Hedging price volatility using fast transport," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 15-25, September.
  2. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 155-180, Fall.
  3. Raphael Bergoeing & Timothy J. Kehoe & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn & Kei-Mu Yi, 2004. "Why Is Manufacturing Trade Rising Even as Manufacturing Output is Falling?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 134-138, May.
  4. Alessandria, George & Choi, Horag, 2014. "Do falling iceberg costs explain recent U.S. export growth?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 311-325.
  5. Bridgman, Benjamin, 2012. "The rise of vertical specialization trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 133-140.
  6. Antoni Estevadeordal & Brian Frantz & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "The Rise and Fall of World Trade, 1870–1939," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(2), pages 359-407.
  7. Raphael Bergoeing & Timothy J. Kehoe, "undated". "Trade Theory and Trade Facts," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv129, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
  8. Michael P. Keane & Susan E. Feinberg, 2006. "Accounting for the Growth of MNC-Based Trade Using a Structural Model of U.S. MNCs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1515-1558, December.
  9. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  10. David Hummels, 2007. "Transportation Costs and International Trade in the Second Era of Globalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 131-154, Summer.
  11. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202.
  12. Benjamin Bridgman, 2008. "Energy Prices and the Expansion of World Trade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 904-916, October.
  13. Claustre Bajona, 2004. "Specific Factors, Learning, and the Dynamics of Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 499-521, 05.
  14. Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2008. "The Choice of Transport Mode: Evidence from Japanese Exports to East Asia," IDE Discussion Papers 155, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  15. Kei-Mu Yi, 2003. "Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 52-102, February.
  16. Harrigan, James, 2010. "Airplanes and comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 181-194, November.
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