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A Theory of Just-in-Time and the Growth in Manufacturing Trade

  • Dalton, John

This paper argues the widespread adoption of Just-in-Time (JIT) logistics provides a key to understanding the growth in the U.S. trade share. To do so, I develop a dynamic trade model based on the choice of the logistics technology used in a firm's supply chain. The model's predicted trade dynamics depend on how the set of firms using JIT with international suppliers changes over time. A numerical example shows the model is capable of generating growth in the trade share. I present evidence showing the theory is consistent with aggregate data as well as industry-level panel data.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/48223/1/MPRA_paper_48223.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 48223.

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Date of creation: Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48223
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  1. Raphael Bergoeing & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2001. "Trade theory and trade facts," Staff Report 284, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1997. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Research Paper 9735, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Antoni Estevadeordal & Brian Frantz & Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "The Rise and Fall of World Trade, 1870-1939," NBER Working Papers 9318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Benjamin Bridgman, 2008. "Energy Prices and the Expansion of World Trade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 904-916, October.
  5. Raphael Bergoeing & Timothy J. Kehoe & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn & Kei-Mu Yi, 2004. "Why Is Manufacturing Trade Rising Even as Manufacturing Output is Falling?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 134-138, May.
  6. Bridgman, Benjamin, 2012. "The rise of vertical specialization trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 133-140.
  7. Kei-Mu Yi, 2003. "Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 52-102, February.
  8. George Alessandria & Horag Choi, 2012. "Do falling iceberg costs explain recent U.S. export growth?," Working Papers 12-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  9. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro Levels," Staff Reports 334, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. David L. Hummels & Georg Schaur, 2009. "Hedging Price Volatility Using Fast Transport," NBER Working Papers 15154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Claustre Bajona, 2004. "Specific Factors, Learning, and the Dynamics of Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 499-521, 05.
  12. Harrigan, James, 2010. "Airplanes and comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 181-194, November.
  13. Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2008. "The Choice of Transport Mode: Evidence from Japanese Exports to East Asia," IDE Discussion Papers 155, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  14. David Hummels, 2007. "Transportation Costs and International Trade in the Second Era of Globalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 131-154, Summer.
  15. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202.
  16. Michael P. Keane & Susan E. Feinberg, 2006. "Accounting for the Growth of MNC-Based Trade Using a Structural Model of U.S. MNCs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1515-1558, December.
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