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A Theory of Just-in-Time and the Growth in Manufacturing Trade

  • Dalton, John

This paper argues the widespread adoption of Just-in-Time (JIT) logistics provides a key to understanding the growth in the U.S. trade share. To do so, I develop a dynamic trade model based on the choice of the logistics technology used in a firm's supply chain. The model's predicted trade dynamics depend on how the set of firms using JIT with international suppliers changes over time. A numerical example shows the model is capable of generating growth in the trade share. I present evidence showing the theory is consistent with aggregate data as well as industry-level panel data.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/48223/1/MPRA_paper_48223.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 48223.

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Date of creation: Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48223
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  1. Bridgman, Benjamin, 2012. "The rise of vertical specialization trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 133-140.
  2. Benjamin Bridgman, . "Energy Prices and the Expansion of World Trade," Departmental Working Papers 2003-14, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
  3. David Hummels, 2007. "Transportation Costs and International Trade in the Second Era of Globalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 131-154, Summer.
  4. David L. Hummels & Georg Schaur, 2009. "Hedging Price Volatility Using Fast Transport," NBER Working Papers 15154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Benjamin Bridgman, 2008. "Data files for "Energy Prices and the Expansion of World Trade"," Technical Appendices 06-199, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  6. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro Levels," Staff Reports 334, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Antoni Estevadeordal & Brian Frantz & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "The Rise And Fall Of World Trade, 1870-1939," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(2), pages 359-407, May.
  8. Raphael Bergoeing & Tim Kehoe & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn & Kei-Mu Yi, 2004. "Why is Manufacturing Trade Rising Even as Manufacturing Output is Falling?," Documentos de Trabajo 178, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  9. George Alessandria & Horag Choi, 2010. "Do falling iceberg costs explain recent U.S. export growth?," Working Papers 10-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  10. Kei-Mu Yi, 2000. "Can vertical specialization explain the growth of world trade?," Staff Reports 96, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. Claustre Bajona, 2004. "Specific Factors, Learning, and the Dynamics of Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 499-521, 05.
  12. Raphael Bergoeing & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2001. "Trade Theory and Trade Facts," Documentos de Trabajo 109, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  13. James Harrigan, 2005. "Airplanes and Comparative Advantage," NBER Working Papers 11688, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1998. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Staff Reports 41, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  15. Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2008. "The Choice of Transport Mode: Evidence from Japanese Exports to East Asia," IDE Discussion Papers 155, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  16. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202.
  17. Michael P. Keane & Susan E. Feinberg, 2006. "Accounting for the Growth of MNC-Based Trade Using a Structural Model of U.S. MNCs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1515-1558, December.
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