IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedmsr/284.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade theory and trade facts

Author

Listed:
  • Raphael Bergoeing
  • Timothy J. Kehoe

Abstract

This paper quantitatively tests the ?new trade theory? based on product differentiation, increasing returns, and imperfect competition. We employ a standard model, which allows both changes in the distribution of income among industrialized countries, emphasized by Helpman and Krugman (1985), and nonhomothetic preferences, emphasized by Markusen (1986), to effect trade directions and volumes. In addition, we generalize the model to allow changes in relative prices to have large effects. We test the model by calibrating it to 1990 data and then ?backcasting? to 1961 to see what changes in crucial variables between 1961 and 1990 are predicted by the theory. The results show that, although the model is capable of explaining much of the increased concentration of trade among industrialized countries, it is not capable of explaining the enormous increase in the ratio of trade to income. Our analysis suggests that it is policy changes, rather than the elements emphasized in the new trade theory, that have been the most significant determinants of the increase in trade volume.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Bergoeing & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2001. "Trade theory and trade facts," Staff Report 284, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:284
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr284.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://minneapolisfed.org/research/common/pub_detail.cfm?pb_autonum_id=844
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Spence, 1976. "Product Selection, Fixed Costs, and Monopolistic Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 217-235.
    2. Dow, James & da Costa Werlang, Sergio Ribeiro, 1992. "Homothetic preferences," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 389-394.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra, 1998. "Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 31-50, Fall.
    4. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-185, March.
    5. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    6. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "International Factor Price Differences: Leontief Was Right!," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 961-987, December.
    7. Robert C. Feenstra, 1998. "Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 31-50, Fall.
    8. Echevarria, Cristina, 1997. "Changes in Sectoral Composition Associated with Economic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 431-452, May.
    9. Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Imperfect competition and international trade: Evidence from fourteen industrial countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 62-81, March.
    10. Markusen, James R, 1986. "Explaining the Volume of Trade: An Eclectic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1002-1011, December.
    11. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
    12. David Hummels & James Levinsohn, 1995. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 799-836.
    13. Deardorff, Alan V., 1984. "Testing trade theories and predicting trade flows," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.),Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 467-517, Elsevier.
    14. Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "International trade in the presence of product differentiation, economies of scale and monopolistic competition : A Chamberlin-Heckscher-Ohlin approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-340, August.
    15. Hunter, Linda, 1991. "The contribution of nonhomothetic preferences to trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 345-358, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yoshinori Kurokawa, 2011. "Variety-skill complementarity: a simple resolution of the trade-wage inequality anomaly," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 46(2), pages 297-325, February.
    2. Raphael Bergoeing & Timothy J. Kehoe & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn & Kei-Mu Yi, 2004. "Why Is Manufacturing Trade Rising Even as Manufacturing Output is Falling?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 134-138, May.
    3. Benjamin Bridgman, 2008. "Energy Prices and the Expansion of World Trade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 904-916, October.
    4. repec:pcz:alspcz:v:4:y:2010:i:1:p:186-192 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Dalton, John, 2013. "A Theory of Just-in-Time and the Growth in Manufacturing Trade," MPRA Paper 48223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Zymek, Robert, 2015. "Factor proportions and the growth of world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-53.
    7. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Pan, Sheng-Chieh, 2013. "Nonlinear bilateral trade balance-fundamentals nexus: A panel smooth transition regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 318-329.
    8. Alejandro Cuñat & Marco Maffezzoli, 2007. "Can Comparative Advantage Explain the Growth of us Trade?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 583-602, April.
    9. Philip Sauré, 2012. "Bounded Love of Variety and Patterns of Trade," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 645-674, September.
    10. Tianshu Chu & Thomas J. Prusa, 2005. "The Reasons For And The Impact Of Antidumping Protection: The Case Of People'S Republic Of China," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Philippa Dee & Michael Ferrantino (ed.), Quantitative Methods For Assessing The Effects Of Non-Tariff Measures And Trade Facilitation, chapter 16, pages 411-433, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Benjamin Brishman, 2010. "The Rise of Vertical Specialization Trade," BEA Working Papers 0051, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    12. Benjamin Bridgman, 2008. "Energy Prices and the Expansion of World Trade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 904-916, October.
    13. Marta Arespa, 2011. "Macroeconomics of extensive margins: a simple model," Working Papers XREAP2011-19, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Nov 2011.
    14. Kei-Mu Yi, 2003. "Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 52-102, February.
    15. Cunha, Alexandre & Teixeira, Arilton, 2004. "The Impacts of Trade Blocks and Tax Reforms on the Brazilian Economy," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 58(3), July.
    16. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "An evaluation of the performance of applied general equilibrium models of the impact of NAFTA," Staff Report 320, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    17. Manoj Atolia & Yoshinori Kurokawa, 2008. "Variety Trade and Skill Premium in a Calibrated General Equilibrium Model: The Case of Mexico," Working Papers wp2008_11_03, Department of Economics, Florida State University.
    18. Mariko Klasing & Petros Milionis & Robert Zymek, 2015. "Gravity across Space and Time," ESE Discussion Papers 265, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    19. Armando Garcia Pires, 2012. "International trade and competitiveness," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 50(3), pages 727-763, August.
    20. Michael P. Keane & Susan E. Feinberg, 2006. "Accounting for the Growth of MNC-Based Trade Using a Structural Model of U.S. MNCs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1515-1558, December.
    21. Chen, Hogan & Kondratowicz, Matthew & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2005. "Vertical specialization and three facts about U.S. international trade," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 35-59, March.
    22. Bridgman, Benjamin, 2012. "The rise of vertical specialization trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 133-140.
    23. Marjit, Sugata & Ray, Moushakhi, 2017. "Export profitability, competition and technology," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 35-45.
    24. Le Duc Niem & Taegi Kim, 2009. "Economic Development and Trade of Quality Differentiated Goods," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 25, pages 367-385.
    25. Alejandro Cuñat & Marco Maffezzoli, "undated". "Trade Integration and Growth," Working Papers 220, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Product differentiation; Trade;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:284. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cfrbmus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.