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Why is manufacturing trade rising even as manufacturing output is falling?

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  • Raphael Bergoeing
  • Timothy J. Kehoe
  • Vanessa Strauss-Kahn
  • Kei-Mu Yi

Abstract

For the OECD as whole, as well as for the U.S., manufacturing exports have been rising, while manufacturing output (both expressed as a share of total GDP) has been falling. We examine the prevalence of this puzzling fact across individual OECD countries, as well as for particular sub-industries of manufacturing. We then address whether the standard international trade paradigms are capable of quantitatively resolving the puzzle. We extend the basic monopolistic competition-cum-Heckscher-Ohlin model to allow for non-homothetic preferences, non-unitary demand elasticities and for changing trade barriers and country-size distributions over time. In a calibrated version of the model, we find that while the extended model can replicate the puzzle qualitatively, it cannot do so quantitatively. We suggest that the unexplained part of the puzzle may be due to vertical specialization – the phenomenon by which countries specialize in particular stages of a good’s production sequence – leading to “back-and-forth” trade, and creating a distinction between ‘gross’ trade and value-added trade. The standard trade paradigms only include value-added trade.
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Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Bergoeing & Timothy J. Kehoe & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn & Kei-Mu Yi, 2004. "Why is manufacturing trade rising even as manufacturing output is falling?," Working Papers 04-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:04-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Spilimbergo, Antonio, 1998. "Deindustrialization and Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 450-460, August.
    2. Raphael Bergoeing & Timothy J. Kehoe, "undated". "Trade Theory and Trade Facts," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv129, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    3. David L. Hummels & Dana Rapoport & Kei-Mu Yi, 1998. "Vertical specialization and the changing nature of world trade," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 4(Jun), pages 79-99.
    4. Davis, Donald R, 1998. "The Home Market, Trade, and Industrial Structure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1264-1276, December.
    5. Kei-Mu Yi, 2003. "Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 52-102, February.
    6. Vanessa Strauss-Kahn, 2004. "The Role of Globalization in the Within-Industry Shift Away from Unskilled Workers in France," NBER Chapters, in: Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics, pages 209-231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Matthias Flückiger & Markus Ludwig, 2015. "Chinese export competition, declining exports and adjustments at the industry and regional level in Europe," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 48(3), pages 1120-1151, August.
    3. Marek Rojíček, 2010. "Konkurenceschopnost obchodu ČR v procesu globalizace [Competitiveness of the Trade of the Czech Republic in the Process of Globalisation]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(2), pages 147-165.
    4. Dalton, John, 2013. "A Theory of Just-in-Time and the Growth in Manufacturing Trade," MPRA Paper 48223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ricotta, Fernanda, 2010. "Global Value Chain Indicators: Application to the Italian Sectors - Gli indicatori della global value chain: un’applicazione ai settori italiani," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 63(4), pages 423-450.
    6. Bridgman, Benjamin, 2012. "The rise of vertical specialization trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 133-140.
    7. Kazuhiko Yokota, 2010. "Japan’s Parts and Components Exports and Complementarity with Foreign Investment," Chapters, in: Daisuke Hiratsuka & Yoko Uchida (ed.), Input Trade and Production Networks in East Asia, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Carlo Altomonte & Filippo Di Mauro & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Armando Rungi & Vincent Vicard, 2012. "Global Value Chains During the Great Trade Collapse: A Bullwhip Effect?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1131, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Martin Borowiecki & Bernhard Dachs & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Steffen Kinkel & Johannes Pöschl & Magdolna Sass & Thomas Christian Schmall & Robert Stehrer & Andrea Szalavetz, 2012. "Global Value Chains and the EU Industry," wiiw Research Reports 383, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    10. Chen, Hogan & Kondratowicz, Matthew & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2005. "Vertical specialization and three facts about U.S. international trade," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 35-59, March.
    11. Benjamin F. Jones, 2021. "Where Innovation Happens, and Where It Does Not," NBER Chapters, in: The Role of Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Economic Growth, pages 577-601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Anu Kovarikova Arro, 2005. "Globalization, Increasing Returns in Component Production, and the Pattern of Trade," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp265, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

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    Keywords

    Manufactures; Trade;

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