IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdm/wpaper/2014-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Heading into Trouble: A Comparison of the Latin American Crises and the Euro Area's Current Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Ramos Francia Manuel
  • Aguilar-Argaez Ana María
  • García-Verdú Santiago
  • Cuadra Gabriel

Abstract

We compare the experience of Latin American external debt crises, in particular the one in the 80s, with the current European one. We do so with the aim of shedding some light on the needed adjustment mechanisms. We argue for the need of much larger debt relief in Europe. To address the moral hazard problems that would arise, we propose providing such relief conditional on the reduction of both the fiscal and the current account deficits to zero as a commitment signal.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramos Francia Manuel & Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & García-Verdú Santiago & Cuadra Gabriel, 2014. "Heading into Trouble: A Comparison of the Latin American Crises and the Euro Area's Current Crisis," Working Papers 2014-17, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2014-17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.banxico.org.mx/publications-and-press/banco-de-mexico-working-papers/%7B91749083-7CEC-5E84-3A85-B1105078353A%7D.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel Cuadra & Juan Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 452-469, April.
    2. Eduardo Borensztein & Ugo Panizza, 2009. "The Costs of Sovereign Default," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(4), pages 683-741, November.
    3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    4. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number dorn91-1, July.
    5. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Targeting the real exchange rate: theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 97-133, June.
    6. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    8. Joshua Greene & Delano Villanueva, 1991. "Private Investment in Developing Countries: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 33-58, March.
    9. Carlos F. Diaz Alejandro, 1963. "A Note on the Impact of Devaluation and the Redistributive Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(6), pages 577-577.
    10. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    12. Giovanni Dell’ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, March.
    13. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2005. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp103, IIIS.
    14. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
    15. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, September.
    16. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 2008. "The cost of reserves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 39-42, July.
    17. Sebastian Edwards, 1989. "Structural Adjustment Policies in Highly Indebted Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, pages 249-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
    19. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
    20. R. Dornbusch, 1984. "External Debt, Budget Deficits and Disequilibrium Exchange Rates," Working papers 347, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    21. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
    22. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Introduction to "Developing Country Debt and the World Economy"," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, pages 1-34, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Targeting the real exchange rate: theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 97-133, June.
    24. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Marõa Soledad Martõnez Perõa & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2010. "Depositor Behavior under Macroeconomic Risk: Evidence from Bank Runs in Emerging Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 585-614, June.
    25. Marcin Wojtowicz, 2011. "CDOs and the Financial Crisis: Credit Ratings and Fair Premia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-022/2/DSF 8, Tinbergen Institute.
    26. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
    27. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    28. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.
    29. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2012. "Greece: The Sudden Stop That Wasn’t," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(1), pages 102-103, February.
    30. Wiesner, Eduardo, 1985. "Latin American Debt: Lessons and Pending Issues," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 191-195, May.
    31. Serven, Luis & Solimano, Andres, 1993. "Debt crisis, adjustment policies and capital formation in developing countries: Where do we stand?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 127-140, January.
    32. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    33. Easterly, William R., 1989. "Fiscal adjustment and deficit financing during the debt crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 138, The World Bank.
    34. Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Monetary and Financial Integration in the EMU: Push or Pull?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 751-776, September.
    35. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance. The International Financial System," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages -12, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," Research Department Publications 4474, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    37. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Developing Country Debt and the World Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number sach89-3, July.
    38. Buffie, Edward F., 1986. "Devaluation, investment and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 361-379, March.
    39. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "The Macroeconomics of Populism," NBER Chapters, in: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pages 7-13, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Dean Baker, 2005. "The Housing Bubble Fact Sheet," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2005-22, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    41. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    42. Michael Bordo & Andrew Filardo, 2005. "Deflation in a historical perspective," BIS Working Papers 186, Bank for International Settlements.
    43. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "Introduction to "The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America"," NBER Chapters, in: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pages 1-4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nina Dodig & Hansjorg Herr, 2014. "Previous financial crises leading to stagnation – selected case studies," Working papers wpaper24, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    2. Mirdala, Rajmund & Ruščáková, Anna, 2015. "On Origins and Implications of the Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 68859, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Allan Hernández & Alberto Trejos, 2013. "Fiscal Moral Hazard Due to Monetary Integration," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 63-85, January-j.
    2. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2013. "Things We Learn from Crises," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 199-230, January-j.
    3. Manuel Ramos -Francia & Ana María Aguilar-Argaez & Santiago García-Verdú & Gabriel Cuadra-García, 2013. "Heading into Trouble: A Comparison of the Latin American Crises and the Euro Area’s Current Crisis," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 87-165, January-j.
    4. Allan Hernández & Alberto Trejos, 2013. "Fiscal Moral Hazard Due to Monetary Integration," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 63-85, January-j.
    5. Vittorio Corbo & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2013. "The International Crisis and Latin America," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 37-62, January-j.
    6. João Pedro Bumachar Resende & Ilan Goldfajn, 2013. "Latin America During the Crisis: The Role of Fundamentals," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 167-198, January-j.
    7. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2013. "Things We Learn from Crises," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 199-230, January-j.
    8. Guillermo Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2013. "Optimal Holdings of International Reserves: Self-insurance against Sudden Stops," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-35, January-j.
    9. João Pedro Bumachar Resende & Ilan Goldfajn, 2013. "Latin America During the Crisis: The Role of Fundamentals," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 167-198, January-j.
    10. Vittorio Corbo & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2013. "The International Crisis and Latin America," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 37-62, January-j.
    11. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2012. "Cosas que aprendimos de las crisis," Business School Working Papers 2012-04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    12. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
    14. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
    15. Sosa-Padilla, César, 2018. "Sovereign defaults and banking crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 88-105.
    16. Luis Catão & Ana Fostel & Romain Ranciere, 2017. "Fiscal Discoveries and Yield Decouplings," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(4), pages 704-744, November.
    17. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    18. Michael Tomz & Mark L.J. Wright, 2013. "Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 247-272, May.
    19. Christoph Trebesch & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Udaibir S Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010: Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 2012/203, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Jean-Marc Fournier & Manuel Bétin, 2018. "Sovereign defaults: Evidence on the importance of government effectiveness," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1494, OECD Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign Debt; Debt Crisis; Crisis Management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2014-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Subgerencia de desarrollo de sistemas (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bangvmx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.