IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ipewps/332014.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Previous financial crises leading to stagnation: Selected case studies

Author

Listed:
  • Dodig, Nina
  • Herr, Hansjörg

Abstract

This paper analyses several severe financial crises observed in the history of capitalism which led to a longer period of stagnation or low growth. Comparative case studies of the Great Depression, the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s and the Japanese crisis of the 1990s and 2000s are presented. The following questions are asked: What triggered big financial crises? Which factors intensified financial crises? And most importantly, which factors prevented the return of prosperity for a long time? The main conclusion is that stagnation after big financial crises becomes likely when the balance sheets of economic units are not quickly cleaned, when the nominal wage anchor breaks, and when there is no big and longer growth stimulus by the state. Some tentative conclusions for the subprime financial crisis and the Great Recession are drawn.

Suggested Citation

  • Dodig, Nina & Herr, Hansjörg, 2014. "Previous financial crises leading to stagnation: Selected case studies," IPE Working Papers 33/2014, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ipewps:332014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/92911/1/778558924.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2007. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance, and the Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why It Matters," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 121-170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Simon Kuznets, 1937. "National Income, 1919-1935," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn37-2.
    3. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    4. Soskice, David, 1990. "Wage Determination: The Changing Role of Institutions in Advanced Industrialized Countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 6(4), pages 36-61, Winter.
    5. Holt, Charles F., 1977. "Who benefited from the prosperity of the twenties?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 277-289, July.
    6. repec:ilo:ilowps:471360 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    8. José Antonio Ocampo, 2004. "Latin America's Growth and Equity Frustrations During Structural Reforms," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 67-88, Spring.
    9. Martha L. Olney, 1999. "Avoiding Default: The Role of Credit in the Consumption Collapse of 1930," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 319-335.
    10. Herr, Hansjörg. & Horn, Gustav A., 2012. "Wage policy today," ILO Working Papers 994713603402676, International Labour Organization.
    11. Olivier Blanchard & Florence Jaumotte & Prakash Loungani, 2014. "Labor market policies and IMF advice in advanced economies during the Great Recession," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, December.
    12. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    13. Olivier Blanchard & Florence Jaumotte & Prakash Loungani, 2014. "Labor market policies and IMF advice in advanced economies during the Great Recession," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, December.
    14. Manuel Ramos -Francia & Ana María Aguilar-Argaez & Santiago García-Verdú & Gabriel Cuadra-García, 2013. "Heading into Trouble: A Comparison of the Latin American Crises and the Euro Area’s Current Crisis," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 87-165, January-j.
    15. Eckhard Hein & Torsten Niechoj & Heinz-Peter Spahn & Achim Truger (ed.), 2008. "Finance-led Capitalism? Macroeconomic Effects of Changes in the Financial Sector," Conference proceedings of the Research Network Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Policies (FMM), IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute, volume 11, number 11-2008, July.
    16. Robert Devlin & Ricardo Ffrench-Davis, 1995. "The great Latin America debt crisis: a decade of asymmetric adjustment," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 15(3), pages 117-142.
    17. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1996. "Some Lessons from the East Asian Miracle," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 11(2), pages 151-177, August.
    18. Milka Kazandziska, 2016. "Macroeconomic Policy Regime In Poland," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(3), pages 411-436, September.
    19. L. Randall Wray & Mathew Forstater (ed.), 2006. "Money, Financial Instability and Stabilization Policy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3902.
    20. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1990. "Policies to Move from Stabilization to Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 456, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1990. "From Stabilization to Growth," NBER Working Papers 3302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Manuel Ramos -Francia & Ana María Aguilar-Argaez & Santiago García-Verdú & Gabriel Cuadra-García, 2013. "Heading into Trouble: A Comparison of the Latin American Crises and the Euro Area’s Current Crisis," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 87-165, January-j.
    23. Romer, Christina D., 1992. "What Ended the Great Depression?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 757-784, December.
    24. Mr. Stanley Fischer & Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," IMF Working Papers 2002/197, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Charles P. Kindleberger & Robert Z. Aliber, 2005. "Manias, Panics and Crashes," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-0-230-62804-5, December.
    26. John Williamson, 2005. "Curbing the Boom-Bust Cycle: Stabilizing Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa75, January.
    27. Williamson, John, 2000. "What Should the World Bank Think about the Washington Consensus?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 15(2), pages 251-264, August.
    28. Simon Kuznets, 1937. "Introduction to "National Income and Capital Formation, 1919-1935"," NBER Chapters, in: National Income and Capital Formation, 1919-1935, pages 1-2, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Simon Kuznets, 1937. "Appendices to "National Income and Capital Formation, 1919-1935"," NBER Chapters, in: National Income and Capital Formation, 1919-1935, pages 61-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Sara Hsu, 2013. "Financial Crises, 1929 to the Present," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14419.
    31. Palma, J. G., 2012. "How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1201, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    32. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Uy, Marilou, 1996. "Financial Markets, Public Policy, and the East Asian Miracle," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 11(2), pages 249-276, August.
    33. Eckhard Hein & Engelbert Stockhammer (ed.), 2011. "A Modern Guide to Keynesian Macroeconomics and Economic Policies," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13962.
    34. Dighe, Ranjit S. & Schmitt, Elizabeth Dunne, 2010. "Did U.S. wages become stickier between the world wars?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 165-181, August.
    35. Hansjörg Herr, 2009. "The labour market in a Keynesian economic regime: theoretical debate and empirical findings," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 33(5), pages 949-965, September.
    36. Peter Temin, 1993. "Transmission of the Great Depression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 87-102, Spring.
    37. Peter Temin, 1994. "The Great Depression," NBER Historical Working Papers 0062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Leo Grebler & David M. Blank & Louis Winnick, 1956. "Capital Formation in Residential Real Estate: Trends and Prospects," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greb56-1.
    39. Simon Kuznets, 1937. "National Income and Capital Formation, 1919-1935," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn37-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nina Dodig & Hansjorg Herr, 2015. "EU policies addressing current account imbalances in the EMU: an assessment," Working papers wpaper74, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    2. Eckhard Hein & Daniel Detzer, 2014. "Coping with imbalances in the Euro area: Policy alternatives addressing divergences and disparities between member countries," Working papers wpaper63, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    3. Nina Dodig & Hansjorg Herr, 2015. "Theories of finance and financial crisis – Lessons for the Great Recession," Working papers wpaper126, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    4. Eckhard Hein, 2015. "Causes and Consequences of the Financial Crisis and the Implications for a More Resilient Financial and Economic System: Synthesis of FESSUD Work Package 3," Working papers wpaper128, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    5. Nina Dodig & Hansjörg Herr, 2015. "Current Account Imbalances in the EMU: An Assessment of Official Policy Responses," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(2), pages 193-216, June.
    6. Hein, Eckhard, 2016. "Causes and consequences of the financial crisis and the implications for a more resilient financial and economic system," IPE Working Papers 61/2016, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ilo:ilowps:485325 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Herr, Hansjörg. & Ruoff, Bea., 2014. "Wage dispersion : empirical developments, explanations, and reform options," ILO Working Papers 994853253402676, International Labour Organization.
    3. Köhler, Karsten, 2016. "Currency devaluations, aggregate demand, and debt dynamics in an economy with foreign currency liabilities," IPE Working Papers 78/2016, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    4. Nina Dodig & Hansjorg Herr, 2015. "Theories of finance and financial crisis – Lessons for the Great Recession," Working papers wpaper126, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    5. Daniel Detzer & Hansjorg Herr, 2014. "Theories of Financial Crises," Working papers wpaper25, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    6. Christian Alexander Belabed, 2015. "Income Distribution and the Great Depression," IMK Working Paper 153-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    7. Herr, Hansjörg, 2018. "Underdevelopment and unregulated markets: Seven reasons why unregulated markets reproduce underdevelopment," IPE Working Papers 103/2018, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    8. Hansjörg Herr & Bea Ruoff, 2018. "Insufficient Economic Convergence in the World Economy: How Do Economists Explain Why Too Many Countries Do Not Catch-up?," Agrarian South: Journal of Political Economy, Centre for Agrarian Research and Education for South, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, April.
    9. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    10. Detzer, Daniel & Herr, Hansjörg, 2014. "Theories of financial crises: An overview," IPE Working Papers 32/2014, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    11. Singleton,John, 2010. "Central Banking in the Twentieth Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521899093, October.
    12. Filipa Correia & Philipp Erfruth & Julie Bryhn, 2018. "The 2030 Agenda: The roadmap to GlobALLizaton," Working Papers 156, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    13. Herr, Hansjörg & Sonat, Zeynep M., 2013. "Neoliberal Unshared Growth Regime of Turkey in the Post-2001 Period," EconStor Preprints 88606, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    14. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    15. Christian A. Belabed, 2016. "Inequality and the New Deal," IMK Working Paper 166-2016, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    16. S. Nazrul Islam & Kenneth Iversen, 2018. "From “Structural Change” to “Transformative Change”: Rationale and Implications," Working Papers 155, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    17. Herr, Hansjörg, 2009. "Time, expectations and financial markets," IPE Working Papers 03/2009, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    18. Herr, Hansjörg, 2016. "After the financial crisis: Reforms and reform options for finance, regulation and institutional structure," IPE Working Papers 63/2016, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    19. Deng, Kent & O'Brien, Patrick, 2021. "The Kuznetsian paradigm for the study of modern economic history and the Great Divergence with appendices of literature review and statistical data," Economic History Working Papers 108563, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    20. Robert J Barro, 2021. "Double Counting of Investment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(638), pages 2333-2356.
    21. Herr, Hansjörg, 2013. "An analytical framework for the Post-Keynesian macroeconomic paradigm," IPE Working Papers 23/2013, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial crises; stagnation; deflation; lost decade; Great Depression; Latin American debt crisis; Japanese crisis; Great Recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ipewps:332014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iphwrde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.